OMP-14: Alternative initial directed sardine TAC Rules

Abstract

The latest Candidate Management Procedure (CMP) proposed to be used as the next Operational Management Procedure (OMP) for the South African sardine and anchovy fishery, OMP-14, is detailed in the Appendix. The Small Pelagic Scientific Working Group has previously agreed the form of the rule governing the increase in the directed sardine TAC in cases where the November survey estimate of 1+ biomass is between 300 and 600 000t, and only a portion of the original TAC is recommended at the start of the year. The OMP Task Team agreed in September 2014 that the increase would continue to be dependent on the historical observed 1985-2011 average of 13.74 billion, with a critical value of Rcrit = 2.1 × Avg rec = 48.16 billion. This document shows the results of assuming different alternatives to the rule governing the portion of the directed sardine TAC recommended at the start of the year in cases where the November survey estimate of 1+ biomass is between 300 and 600 000t. In addition, the maximum possible increase is now smoothed from 110% of the original TAC at 300 000t, to 100% of the original TAC at 600 000t. All results in this document are based on a single sardine stock operating model.