OMP-04 under robustness test to the base case assessments of the South African anchovy and sardine resources
Working Paper
2004
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University of Cape Town
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Abstract
The results at the posterior mode for some robustness tests to the base case sardine and anchovy assessments were presented in Cunningham and Butterworth (2004x). These results are repeated here together with a few further tests, including a robustness test designed to mimic a perceived slower growth in sardine since 2000. New results presented in this document include those obtained from projecting the resource into the future using OMP-04 and the fishery management system outlined in Cunningham and Butterworth (2004c). The thresholds and rules for exceptional circumstances provisions as recommended in Cunningham and Butterworth (2004z) are used for all projections with OMP-04 in this document.
Such projections are initially done using the results from the posterior modes in order that tests that show a substantial difference could be singled out. Bayesian analyses of these selected tests were then run and the resource projected using the Bayesian results.
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Cunningham, C. L., & Butterworth, D. S. (2004). OMP-04 under robustness tests to the base case assessments of the South African anchovy and sardine resources.