A review of world sardine catch patterns: What can be said about the likely duration of the current peak in South African sardine fishery

Cunningham, Carryn L; Butterworth, Doug S

A review of world sardine catch patterns: What can be said about the likely duration of the current peak in South African sardine fishery

Working Paper

2005

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Abstract

The question of how long the current peak in South African sardine catch will extend is posed. Historic sardine catch series throughout the world are considered and two models are fitted to these series to establish their reliability for predicting future trends in catches. The authors find little basis to draw conclusions for the South African resource based on trends elsewhere. More dependable inferences may be forthcoming from the South African catch series itself, analyses of which suggest that catches may remain high (above some 200 000 tons) until about 2007, but this inference should not be considered particularly reliable.

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