OMP-2011 re-tuned to account for 2012/13 TAC decisions while maintaining an unchanged recovery target

Abstract

The consequences of retuning OMP-2011 to achieve the agreed 35% median recovery level by 2021 given the decision not to decrease the 2012/13 season TAC by 150 tons as recommended are investigated. Over the next eight seasons, the aggregate TAC is forecast to be some 400 tons less than would otherwise have been the case. Most of the reduction will be borne by the offshore commercial sector, which should expect a reduction near the maximum 10% constraint over each of the next three seasons, and an allocation eventually stabilising about 100 tons (or some 7%) than would otherwise have occurred. The probability over the next two years of Exceptional Circumstances needing to be declared in super-area A7, with a consequent additional TAC reduction, roughly doubles. Certain other possible management approaches which explicitly exclude the possibility of future TAC reductions, are shown to run the risk of an appreciably larger biomass reduction by 2021.