Bayesian assessments using models which allow for interchange on the breeding grounds of Southern Hemisphere humpback whale breeding Sub stocks C1 and C3

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2009

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University of Cape Town

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Bayesian stock assessment results for breeding sub-stocks C1 and C3 using models which allow for interchange on the breeding grounds as well as mixing on the feeding grounds are illustrated for four models – the sabbatical, tourist and migrant models and the resident model (for which interchange is set to zero.) Results are also presented for a range of sensitivity tests. The availability of photo-id data allows the estimation of interchange rates. The estimates of these interchange rates are generally low with posterior median estimates all below 6% p.a., and estimated trajectories are fairly similar for all models considered. With single exceptions, current (2006) posterior median population sizes relative to pre-exploitation levels are all estimated to exceed 80% for C1 and 90% for C3.
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