OMP-13: Further investigation of the anchovy control rule

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2013

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University of Cape Town

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Abstract
de Moor and Butterworth (2013) have shown that under equivalent leftward shifts of the OMP to no catch biomass distribution in the transition from operating models (whether HS0.91 or BH1.22 ) based on data to 2006 to those based on data to 2011, the anchovy A risk statistic deteriorates, reflecting an appreciably greater probability that the adult anchovy biomass falls below 10% of its average value over the November 1984 to November 1999 period at least once during a 20-year projection period. This document explores the effect of changes to the anchovy catch control rule, in particular to the threshold survey biomass level A Bec below which Exceptional Circumstances provisions are invoked.
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