Bayesian assessments of the southern hemisphere humpback whale breeding stock B using three different models for stock-structure

Abstract

Three different models are considered for Southern Hemisphere humpback breeding stock B: Model 1, a single fully-mixed stock; Model 2, reproductively independent stocks B1 off Gabon and B2 of the southern African coastline; and Model 3 with two stocks as in Model 2 but with B1 consisting of two sub-stocks, one of which migrates to Gabon along the southern African coastline. The models are fitted to mark-recapture data (both photo-ID and genetic) available for the Gabon and South African regions. The purpose of the paper is one of illustrating the stock-structure models and associated methods of analysis, anticipating that further discussion and selection of specific model input assumptions will take place during the Scientific Committee meeting.