Further results relating to appropriate TACs for the South African Merluccius paradoxus and M. capensis resources

Abstract

A simple species-aggregated population model is applied to combined-species hake CPUE data since 1992 as a “reality check” on the short term substantial reductions in TACs being indicated by candidate OMPs when tested under the operating model. These simple computations suggest similar levels of TAC reduction are necessary to restore resource abundance (and hence CPUE) to 1992 levels over the next 10 years. Retrospective analyses comparing the reliabilities of the SR1 and SR2 options in predicting recent recruitment are pursued, and suggest slight preference for use of the SR2 option. TAC projections under the various OMP candidates for fixed future inputs for resource abundance indices are shown to illustrate how the TACs output by these OMPs depend on the index values input