Update to the African Penguin population model taking account of new moult count information

Robinson, William M L; Butterworth, Doug S

Update to the African Penguin population model taking account of new moult count information

Working Paper

2009

Publisher

University of Cape Town

Department

Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Abstract

Refitting the penguin model to adjusted data taking into consideration possible undercounting of moulters in recent years, we have been able to obtain a better model fit. Also, analysis indicates that the depletion of penguins (expressed as abundance in 2008 relative to 2002) is about 5% less than previously estimated at the colony assumed to be the origin of the extra moulters at Stony Point. The calculated model likelihoods suggest that these birds are more likely to come from Dassen Island.

Keywords

African penguin

moult count

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