Penguin survival estimates from tag data using a multinomial likelihood
Working Paper
2010
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University of Cape Town
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Abstract
A simple population model for Robben Island penguins is considered which
incorporates fitting to both moult counts and tag data. The latter are now fit using
a multinomial likelihood which is the method used in program MARK. Probability
intervals on survival rates are more reliable than those obtained previously using
an over-dispersed Poisson likelihood. Furthermore, the incorporation of a prior for
relative undercounts of juveniles in the moult counts generally moves penalized
likelihood estimates for adult survival rate away from an upper constraint
boundary.
Description
Reference:
Robinson, W., & Butterworth, D. (2010). Penguin survival estimates from tag data using a multinomial likelihood. MCM/2010/SWG-PEL/53.