Illustrative outputs of the age-structured model of African penguin populations for linking to the pelagic OMP testing process

Abstract

Given the move towards adopting an ecosystem approach to fisheries in the pelagic sector, the new joint OMP needs to be tested in the light of not only the risk parameters as considered previously, along with catch statistics, but also parameters denoting risk to the African penguin population(s) Spheniscus demersus. Penguins have been chosen as a key predator species to consider because of their conservation status, and because of their potential sensitivity to changes in pelagic fish abundance and distribution as a consequence of their land-based breeding sites. A model of penguin dynamics has been developed for use as a penguin Operating Model to be coupled to the pelagic fish OMP. This paper summarises the base-case penguin model and proposed method for use in evaluating the impact on penguins of predicted future pelagic fish trajectories under alternative harvest strategies (OMPs).