A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture

 

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dc.contributor.author Van Vuuren, Detlef P
dc.contributor.author Kriegler, Elmar
dc.contributor.author O’Neill, Brian C
dc.contributor.author Ebi, Kristie L
dc.contributor.author Riahi, Keywan
dc.contributor.author Carter, Timothy R
dc.contributor.author Edmonds, Jae
dc.contributor.author Hallegatte, Stephane
dc.contributor.author Kram, Tom
dc.contributor.author Mathur, Ritu
dc.contributor.author Winkler, Harald
dc.date.accessioned 2016-02-08T12:30:11Z
dc.date.available 2016-02-08T12:30:11Z
dc.date.issued 2014
dc.identifier http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1
dc.identifier.citation Van Vuuren, D., Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B., Ebi, K., Riahi, K., Carter, T., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Mathur, R. & Winkler, H. (2014). A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change, 122(3), 373-386. DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1 en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 0165-0009 en_ZA
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16900
dc.description.abstract This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue. en_ZA
dc.language eng en_ZA
dc.publisher Springer en_ZA
dc.source Climatic Change en_ZA
dc.source.uri http://link.springer.com/journal/10584
dc.subject.other Carbon taxes
dc.subject.other Greenhouse gas mitigation
dc.subject.other Energy policy
dc.title A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture en_ZA
dc.type Journal Article en_ZA
dc.date.updated 2016-02-04T09:45:49Z
uct.type.publication Research en_ZA
uct.type.resource Article en_ZA
uct.subject.keywords scenario framework en_ZA
uct.subject.keywords scenario matrix architecture en_ZA
dc.publisher.institution University of Cape Town
dc.publisher.faculty Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment
dc.publisher.department Energy Research Centre en_ZA
uct.type.filetype Text
uct.type.filetype Image
dc.identifier.apacitation Van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., , Ebi, K. L., Riahi, K., Carter, T. R., ... Winkler, H. (2014). A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture. <i>Climatic Change</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16900 en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitation Van Vuuren, Detlef P, Elmar Kriegler, , Kristie L Ebi, Keywan Riahi, Timothy R Carter, Jae Edmonds, et al "A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture." <i>Climatic Change</i> (2014) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16900 en_ZA
dc.identifier.vancouvercitation Van Vuuren DP, Kriegler E, , Ebi KL, Riahi K, Carter TR, et al. A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change. 2014; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16900. en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Van Vuuren, Detlef P AU - Kriegler, Elmar AU - O’Neill, Brian C AU - Ebi, Kristie L AU - Riahi, Keywan AU - Carter, Timothy R AU - Edmonds, Jae AU - Hallegatte, Stephane AU - Kram, Tom AU - Mathur, Ritu AU - Winkler, Harald AB - This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue. DA - 2014 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town J1 - Climatic Change LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2014 SM - 0165-0009 T1 - A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture TI - A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16900 ER - en_ZA


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