Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa

 

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.advisor Lennard, Chris en_ZA
dc.contributor.advisor Tadross, Mark en_ZA
dc.contributor.advisor Hewitson, Bruce en_ZA
dc.contributor.author Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa en_ZA
dc.date.accessioned 2016-02-05T07:22:26Z
dc.date.available 2016-02-05T07:22:26Z
dc.date.issued 2015 en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Pinto, I. 2015. Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa. University of Cape Town. en_ZA
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781
dc.description Includes bibliographical references en_ZA
dc.description.abstract Changes in precipitation extremes are projected by many global climate models as a response to greenhouse gas increases, and such changes will have significant environmental and social impacts. These impacts are a function of exposure and vulnerability. Hence there is critical need to understand the nature of weather and climate extremes. Results from an ensemble of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project are used to investigate projected changes in extreme precipitation characteristics over southern Africa for the middle (2036-2065) and late century (2069-2098) under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). Two approaches are followed to identify and analyze extreme precipitation events. First, indices for extreme events, which capture moderate extreme events, are calculated on the basis of model data and are compared with indices from two observational gridded datasets at annual basis. The second approach is based on extreme value theory. Here, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) is fitted to annual maxima precipitation by a L-moments method. The 20-year return values are analyzed for present and future climate conditions. The physical drivers of the projected change are evaluated by examining the models ability to simulate circulation patterns over the regions with the aid of Self-Organizing Maps (SOM). en_ZA
dc.language.iso eng en_ZA
dc.subject.other Environmental Science en_ZA
dc.subject.other Climate Change en_ZA
dc.subject.other climate models en_ZA
dc.title Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa en_ZA
dc.type Doctoral Thesis
uct.type.publication Research en_ZA
uct.type.resource Thesis en_ZA
dc.publisher.institution University of Cape Town
dc.publisher.faculty Faculty of Science en_ZA
dc.publisher.department Department of Environmental and Geographical Science en_ZA
dc.type.qualificationlevel Doctoral
dc.type.qualificationname PhD en_ZA
uct.type.filetype Text
uct.type.filetype Image
dc.identifier.apacitation Pinto, I. S. d. S. (2015). <i>Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Environmental and Geographical Science. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781 en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitation Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa. <i>"Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781 en_ZA
dc.identifier.vancouvercitation Pinto ISdS. Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Science ,Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, 2015 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781 en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Pinto, Izidine S de Sousa AB - Changes in precipitation extremes are projected by many global climate models as a response to greenhouse gas increases, and such changes will have significant environmental and social impacts. These impacts are a function of exposure and vulnerability. Hence there is critical need to understand the nature of weather and climate extremes. Results from an ensemble of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project are used to investigate projected changes in extreme precipitation characteristics over southern Africa for the middle (2036-2065) and late century (2069-2098) under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). Two approaches are followed to identify and analyze extreme precipitation events. First, indices for extreme events, which capture moderate extreme events, are calculated on the basis of model data and are compared with indices from two observational gridded datasets at annual basis. The second approach is based on extreme value theory. Here, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) is fitted to annual maxima precipitation by a L-moments method. The 20-year return values are analyzed for present and future climate conditions. The physical drivers of the projected change are evaluated by examining the models ability to simulate circulation patterns over the regions with the aid of Self-Organizing Maps (SOM). DA - 2015 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2015 T1 - Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa TI - Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781 ER - en_ZA


Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record