Economy-wide Modeling: An input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process


Show simple item record Pauw, Kalie 2016-02-05T05:30:46Z 2016-02-05T05:30:46Z 2007
dc.identifier.citation Pauw K. (2007) Economy-wide modeling: an input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process. LTMS Input Report 4, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, October 2007 en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 1021-447X en_ZA
dc.description.abstract The objective of this analysis is to develop a better understanding of the likely impact that various mitigation options may have on the economy in terms of GDP, employment and household welfare. As noted in the introduction, outcomes of three mitigation scenarios, Start Now, Scale Up and Use the Market, are evaluated. These mitigation scenarios are combinations of different degrees of energy efficiency that can be achieved, structural shifts in energy output mix and, in the case of the latter scenario, economic instruments used to reduce emissions. Results are compared in comparative static fashion against a ‘business as usual’ reference case called growth without constraints (GWC). This remains a scenario analysis, and by no means can we claim that results are necessarily an accurate reflection of the true outcome. Given the long time horizon and the multitude of economic variables and parameters that may change over time and impact on each other, not to mention factors external to the South Africa economy that cannot be controlled, it is unwise to have too much confidence in results. However, the exercise remains useful. We are upfront about the limitations, the assumptions and the methods used to arrive at results, and given these, the scenario analysis provides a useful starting point for policy discussions around possible outcomes under various different mitigation scenarios for South Africa. en_ZA
dc.language eng en_ZA
dc.publisher University of Cape Town. Energy Research Centre en_ZA
dc.source en_ZA
dc.subject.other Long Term Mitigation Scenarios
dc.subject.other Sustainable development
dc.subject.other Climatic changes
dc.title Economy-wide Modeling: An input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process en_ZA
dc.type Journal Article en_ZA 2016-02-03T08:18:29Z
uct.type.publication Research en_ZA
uct.type.resource Article en_ZA
uct.subject.keywords Economy-wide Modeling en_ZA
dc.publisher.institution University of Cape Town
dc.publisher.faculty Faculty of Engineering & the Built Environment en_ZA
dc.publisher.department Energy Research Centre en_ZA
uct.type.filetype Text
uct.type.filetype Image

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