An assessment of the feasibility of using administrative data in producing mid-year population estimates for South Africa

 

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dc.contributor.advisor Dorrington, Rob en_ZA
dc.contributor.author Hlabano, Mbongeni Charles en_ZA
dc.date.accessioned 2016-01-29T11:05:48Z
dc.date.available 2016-01-29T11:05:48Z
dc.date.issued 2015 en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Hlabano, M. 2015. An assessment of the feasibility of using administrative data in producing mid-year population estimates for South Africa. University of Cape Town. en_ZA
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16610
dc.description Includes bibliographical references en_ZA
dc.description.abstract The production of mid-year population estimates is an important undertaking which informs various stakeholders in policy formation and decision making. For instance, national governments use mid-year estimates to allocate seats in parliament to various constituents and public health sectors use them to monitor and improve service delivery. Mid-year population estimates undoubtedly serve very important purposes that affect lives of many people. As such, national statistical offices in various countries are given the mandate to produce annual mid-year population estimates. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) assumes the function of producing and publishing official mid-year estimates of the population in South Africa. Stats SA produces its mid-year estimates using DemProj, population projection software which is part of the SPECTRUM suite of policy models developed by the Futures Institute. However, Stats SA does not publish full details of its adaptation of DemProj when producing its mid-year estimates as it regards this as proprietary. Concerns have been raised about the accuracy of the official mid-year estimates in terms of age distribution, particularly for ages below 40 last birthday in 2011 (e.g. Dorrington 2013). As such, this research critically analyses the method used by Stats SA to produce mid-year estimates and assesses the feasibility of using administrative data to produce mid-year estimates for South Africa. The base population is adapted from the 2001 census population. Birth and death registration data are used in a cohort component approach to produce alternative mid-year estimates for South Africa for the years 2002-2011. Prior to using these data, they are adjusted for incompleteness of registration. Levels of completeness of birth and death registration are estimated by extrapolating earlier estimates of completeness from various researchers. The mid-year estimates obtained are compared with those published by Stats SA in order to assess the relative quality of the two series of mid-year estimates. The mid-year estimates for 2011 are also compared with the mid-year population estimated from the 2011 census. These comparisons help identify the mismatches to the census and their possible causes and as such, these may lead to improved population estimates in the future, and a viable alternative method to that currently being used by Stats SA. en_ZA
dc.language.iso eng en_ZA
dc.subject.other Demography en_ZA
dc.title An assessment of the feasibility of using administrative data in producing mid-year population estimates for South Africa en_ZA
dc.type Master Thesis
uct.type.publication Research en_ZA
uct.type.resource Thesis en_ZA
dc.publisher.institution University of Cape Town
dc.publisher.faculty Faculty of Commerce en_ZA
dc.publisher.department Centre for Actuarial Research (CARE) en_ZA
dc.type.qualificationlevel Masters
dc.type.qualificationname MPhil en_ZA
uct.type.filetype Text
uct.type.filetype Image
dc.identifier.apacitation Hlabano, M. C. (2015). <i>An assessment of the feasibility of using administrative data in producing mid-year population estimates for South Africa</i>. (Thesis). University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Centre for Actuarial Research (CARE). Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16610 en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitation Hlabano, Mbongeni Charles. <i>"An assessment of the feasibility of using administrative data in producing mid-year population estimates for South Africa."</i> Thesis., University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Centre for Actuarial Research (CARE), 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16610 en_ZA
dc.identifier.vancouvercitation Hlabano MC. An assessment of the feasibility of using administrative data in producing mid-year population estimates for South Africa. [Thesis]. University of Cape Town ,Faculty of Commerce ,Centre for Actuarial Research (CARE), 2015 [cited yyyy month dd]. Available from: http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16610 en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Thesis / Dissertation AU - Hlabano, Mbongeni Charles AB - The production of mid-year population estimates is an important undertaking which informs various stakeholders in policy formation and decision making. For instance, national governments use mid-year estimates to allocate seats in parliament to various constituents and public health sectors use them to monitor and improve service delivery. Mid-year population estimates undoubtedly serve very important purposes that affect lives of many people. As such, national statistical offices in various countries are given the mandate to produce annual mid-year population estimates. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) assumes the function of producing and publishing official mid-year estimates of the population in South Africa. Stats SA produces its mid-year estimates using DemProj, population projection software which is part of the SPECTRUM suite of policy models developed by the Futures Institute. However, Stats SA does not publish full details of its adaptation of DemProj when producing its mid-year estimates as it regards this as proprietary. Concerns have been raised about the accuracy of the official mid-year estimates in terms of age distribution, particularly for ages below 40 last birthday in 2011 (e.g. Dorrington 2013). As such, this research critically analyses the method used by Stats SA to produce mid-year estimates and assesses the feasibility of using administrative data to produce mid-year estimates for South Africa. The base population is adapted from the 2001 census population. Birth and death registration data are used in a cohort component approach to produce alternative mid-year estimates for South Africa for the years 2002-2011. Prior to using these data, they are adjusted for incompleteness of registration. Levels of completeness of birth and death registration are estimated by extrapolating earlier estimates of completeness from various researchers. The mid-year estimates obtained are compared with those published by Stats SA in order to assess the relative quality of the two series of mid-year estimates. The mid-year estimates for 2011 are also compared with the mid-year population estimated from the 2011 census. These comparisons help identify the mismatches to the census and their possible causes and as such, these may lead to improved population estimates in the future, and a viable alternative method to that currently being used by Stats SA. DA - 2015 DB - OpenUCT DP - University of Cape Town LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2015 T1 - An assessment of the feasibility of using administrative data in producing mid-year population estimates for South Africa TI - An assessment of the feasibility of using administrative data in producing mid-year population estimates for South Africa UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16610 ER - en_ZA


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