Clean energy and development for South Africa: Scenarios, Report 2 of 3

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University of Cape Town

This report is the second of three reports outlining sustainable development pathways for South Africa. It forms part of the reporting for the project entitled “Clean Energy and Development for South Africa” funded by the British Foreign Commonwealth office. The study has three main objectives, firstly to update both the national LEAP and MARKAL models and the data developed and captured during the first integrated energy planning process. Secondly to project future scenarios for the South African energy system and develop “roadmaps” for sustainable development using sustainability indicators and thirdly to develop additional capacity for energy modelling in South Africa and in particular within the Department of Minerals and Energy (DME). The objective of this document is to lay out the scenarios considered. It attempts to clearly define and record all the assumptions used to develop the scenarios. As the model is to be made available to the DME for use by its energy modelers and planners on completion of the project, the document serves as a guide to the scenarios in the model for the energy officers who will be using it. All model results and sustainability indicators developed are reported in the third report. Sustainable development has several objectives, it aims to improve the environmental impact of energy use as well as the social impact of energy use. The scenarios are designed to offer insight into the effect that following different policy pathways will have on the goals of sustainable development.