Out-migration in the context of the HIV/AIDS epidemic: evidence from the Free State province

Abstract

This paper investigates the characteristics and determinants of out-migration in the context of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, using data from a panel designed to investigate the household impact of the epidemic. Departure models show that individual attributes, notably age and gender, play an important role in explaining out-migration from households that have not experienced morbidity or mortality. In affected households, a number of household-level variables, notably the gender of the household head, place of residence, family structure, the dependency ratio, human capital and household size, feature as important determinants of out-migration. Health shocks in the form of increased mortality, which characterises the impact of the epidemic, independently explain part of observed differences in out-migration from affected households, the out-migration of ill persons from affected households, and the out-migration of orphaned children from affected households. Thus, migration represents an important strategy for poorer households having to cope with the HIV/AIDS epidemic, both as an economic survival strategy and as a social strategy aimed at accessing support from the extended family.