Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network

 

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dc.contributor.author Moore, Christine en_ZA
dc.contributor.author Cumming, Graeme S en_ZA
dc.contributor.author Slingsby, Jasper en_ZA
dc.contributor.author Grewar, John en_ZA
dc.date.accessioned 2015-11-16T04:10:49Z
dc.date.available 2015-11-16T04:10:49Z
dc.date.issued 2014 en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Moore, C., Cumming, G. S., Slingsby, J., & Grewar, J. (2014). Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network. PloS one, 9(1). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0086973 en_ZA
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15012
dc.identifier.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086973
dc.description.abstract BACKGROUND: The focus of management in many complex systems is shifting towards facilitation, adaptation, building resilience, and reducing vulnerability. Resilience management requires the development and application of general heuristics and methods for tracking changes in both resilience and vulnerability. We explored the emergence of vulnerability in the South African domestic ostrich industry, an animal production system which typically involves 3-4 movements of each bird during its lifetime. This system has experienced several disease outbreaks, and the aim of this study was to investigate whether these movements have contributed to the vulnerability of this system to large disease outbreaks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The ostrich production system requires numerous movements of birds between different farm types associated with growth (i.e. Hatchery to juvenile rearing farm to adult rearing farm). We used 5 years of movement records between 2005 and 2011 prior to an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). These data were analyzed using a network analysis in which the farms were represented as nodes and the movements of birds as links. We tested the hypothesis that increasing economic efficiency in the domestic ostrich industry in South Africa made the system more vulnerable to outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). Our results indicated that as time progressed, the network became increasingly vulnerable to pathogen outbreaks. The farms that became infected during the outbreak displayed network qualities, such as significantly higher connectivity and centrality, which predisposed them to be more vulnerable to disease outbreak. Conclusions/Significance Taken in the context of previous research, our results provide strong support for the application of network analysis to track vulnerability, while also providing useful practical implications for system monitoring and management. en_ZA
dc.language.iso eng en_ZA
dc.publisher Public Library of Science en_ZA
dc.rights This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the <a href= en_ZA
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 en_ZA
dc.source PLoS One en_ZA
dc.source.uri http://journals.plos.org/plosone en_ZA
dc.subject.other Ostriches en_ZA
dc.subject.other Birds en_ZA
dc.subject.other Network analysis en_ZA
dc.subject.other Avian influenza en_ZA
dc.subject.other Seasonal variations en_ZA
dc.subject.other Veterinary diseases en_ZA
dc.title Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network en_ZA
dc.type Journal Article en_ZA
dc.rights.holder © 2014 Moore et al en_ZA
uct.type.publication Research en_ZA
uct.type.resource Article en_ZA
dc.publisher.institution University of Cape Town
dc.publisher.faculty Faculty of Science en_ZA
dc.publisher.department Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology en_ZA
uct.type.filetype Text
uct.type.filetype Image
dc.identifier.apacitation Moore, C., Cumming, G. S., Slingsby, J., & Grewar, J. (2014). Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network. <i>PLoS One</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15012 en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitation Moore, Christine, Graeme S Cumming, Jasper Slingsby, and John Grewar "Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network." <i>PLoS One</i> (2014) http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15012 en_ZA
dc.identifier.vancouvercitation Moore C, Cumming GS, Slingsby J, Grewar J. Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network. PLoS One. 2014; http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15012. en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Journal Article AU - Moore, Christine AU - Cumming, Graeme S AU - Slingsby, Jasper AU - Grewar, John AB - BACKGROUND: The focus of management in many complex systems is shifting towards facilitation, adaptation, building resilience, and reducing vulnerability. Resilience management requires the development and application of general heuristics and methods for tracking changes in both resilience and vulnerability. We explored the emergence of vulnerability in the South African domestic ostrich industry, an animal production system which typically involves 3-4 movements of each bird during its lifetime. This system has experienced several disease outbreaks, and the aim of this study was to investigate whether these movements have contributed to the vulnerability of this system to large disease outbreaks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The ostrich production system requires numerous movements of birds between different farm types associated with growth (i.e. Hatchery to juvenile rearing farm to adult rearing farm). We used 5 years of movement records between 2005 and 2011 prior to an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). These data were analyzed using a network analysis in which the farms were represented as nodes and the movements of birds as links. We tested the hypothesis that increasing economic efficiency in the domestic ostrich industry in South Africa made the system more vulnerable to outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N2). Our results indicated that as time progressed, the network became increasingly vulnerable to pathogen outbreaks. The farms that became infected during the outbreak displayed network qualities, such as significantly higher connectivity and centrality, which predisposed them to be more vulnerable to disease outbreak. Conclusions/Significance Taken in the context of previous research, our results provide strong support for the application of network analysis to track vulnerability, while also providing useful practical implications for system monitoring and management. DA - 2014 DB - OpenUCT DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0086973 DP - University of Cape Town J1 - PLoS One LK - https://open.uct.ac.za PB - University of Cape Town PY - 2014 T1 - Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network TI - Tracking socioeconomic vulnerability using network analysis: insights from an avian influenza outbreak in an ostrich production network UR - http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15012 ER - en_ZA


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