Browsing by Subject "population dynamics"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Open Access
    Collapse of an iconic conifer: long-term changes in the demography of Widdringtonia cedarbergensis using repeat photography
    (2016) White, J D M; Jack, S L; Hoffman, M T; Puttick, J; Bonora, D; Visser, V; February, E C
    BACKGROUND: Conifer populations appear disproportionately threatened by global change. Most examples are, however, drawn from the northern hemisphere and long-term rates of population decline are not well documented as historical data are often lacking. We use a large and long-term (1931-2013) repeat photography dataset together with environmental data and fire records to account for the decline of the critically endangered Widdringtonia cedarbergensis. Eighty-seven historical and repeat photo-pairs were analysed to establish 20th century changes in W. cedarbergensis demography. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was fitted to determine the relative importance of environmental factors and fire-return interval on mortality for the species. RESULTS: From an initial total of 1313 live trees in historical photographs, 74% had died and only 44 (3.4%) had recruited in the repeat photographs, leaving 387 live individuals. Juveniles (mature adults) had decreased (increased) from 27% (73%) to 8% (92%) over the intervening period. Our model demonstrates that mortality is related to greater fire frequency, higher temperatures, lower elevations, less rocky habitats and aspect (i.e. east-facing slopes had the least mortality). CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that W. cedarbergensis populations have declined significantly over the recorded period, with a pronounced decline in the last 30 years. Individuals that established in open habitats at lower, hotter elevations and experienced a greater fire frequency appear to be more vulnerable to mortality than individuals growing within protected, rocky environments at higher, cooler locations with less frequent fires. Climate models predict increasing temperatures for our study area (and likely increases in wildfires). If these predictions are realised, further declines in the species can be expected. Urgent management interventions, including seedling out-planting in fire-protected high elevation sites, reducing fire frequency in higher elevation populations, and assisted migration, should be considered.
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    Open Access
    Seasonal rainfall at long-term migratory staging sites is associated with altered carry-over effects in a Palearctic-African migratory bird
    (2016) Sorensen, Marjorie C; Fairhurst, Graham D; Jenni-Eiermann, Susanne; Newton, Jason; Yohannes, Elizabeth; Spottiswoode, Claire N
    Abstract Background An understanding of year-round habitat use is essential for determining how carry-over effects shape population dynamics in long-distance migratory songbirds. The recent discovery of long-term migratory staging sites in many species, prior to arrival at final wintering sites, adds complexity to efforts to decipher non-breeding habitat use and connections between sites. We investigated whether habitat conditions during migratory staging carry over to influence great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) body condition at final wintering sites in Zambia. We asked whether the presence/absence and strength of such carry-over effects were modified by contrasting rainfall conditions during 2 years. Results First, we found that individuals staging in a dry year had higher corticosterone (CORT f ) and stable nitrogen isotope values (suggesting higher aridity) than birds staging in a wet year, indicating that regional weather affected staging conditions. Second, we found that carry-over effects from staging habitat conditions (measured via carbon and nitrogen isotopes) to final winter site body condition (measured via scaled mass index and β-hydroxybutyrate) were only present in a dry year, suggesting that environmental factors have consequences for the strength of carry-over effects. Our results also suggest that wet conditions at final winter sites may buffer the effects of poor staging conditions, at least in the short term, since individuals that staged in a dry year had higher scaled mass indices in Zambia than individuals that staged in a wet year. Conclusions This study provides a first insight into the connections between long-term migratory staging sites and final wintering sites, and suggests that local environmental factors can modify the strength of carry-over effects for long-distance migratory birds.
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    The within-host population dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis vary with treatment efficacy
    (2017) Trauner, Andrej; Liu, Qingyun; Via, Laura E; Liu, Xin; Ruan, Xianglin; Liang, Lili; Shi, Huimin; Chen, Ying; Wang, Ziling; Liang, Ruixia; Zhang, Wei; Wei, Wang; Gao, Jingcai; Sun, Gang; Brites, Daniela; England, Kathleen; Zhang, Guolong; Gagneux, Sébastien; Barry, Clifton E; Gao, Qian
    BACKGROUND: Combination therapy is one of the most effective tools for limiting the emergence of drug resistance in pathogens. Despite the widespread adoption of combination therapy across diseases, drug resistance rates continue to rise, leading to failing treatment regimens. The mechanisms underlying treatment failure are well studied, but the processes governing successful combination therapy are poorly understood. We address this question by studying the population dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis within tuberculosis patients undergoing treatment with different combinations of antibiotics. RESULTS: By combining very deep whole genome sequencing (~1000-fold genome-wide coverage) with sequential sputum sampling, we were able to detect transient genetic diversity driven by the apparently continuous turnover of minor alleles, which could serve as the source of drug-resistant bacteria. However, we report that treatment efficacy has a clear impact on the population dynamics: sufficient drug pressure bears a clear signature of purifying selection leading to apparent genetic stability. In contrast, M. tuberculosis populations subject to less drug pressure show markedly different dynamics, including cases of acquisition of additional drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that for a pathogen like M. tuberculosis, which is well adapted to the human host, purifying selection constrains the evolutionary trajectory to resistance in effectively treated individuals. Nonetheless, we also report a continuous turnover of minor variants, which could give rise to the emergence of drug resistance in cases of drug pressure weakening. Monitoring bacterial population dynamics could therefore provide an informative metric for assessing the efficacy of novel drug combinations.