Browsing by Subject "finance and tax"
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- ItemOpen AccessA critical analysis of fiscal stability agreements as offered in the tenth schedule of the income tax act for energy companies in South Africa in light of recent oil and gas finds in South Africa(2021) Melapi, Babalwa Melapi; West, Craig; Futter, AlisonSouth Africa remains reliant on a number of countries to sustain its energy requirements. The acute shortage and unreliable supply of electricity, requires that South Africa consider other energy sources, more specifically, that it considers the use of oil and gas as an alternative or complementary energy source to the main energy sources currently used in the country. The recent announcement of oil and gas discoveries in South Africa could see less reliance on other countries for the importation of crude oil and petroleum products. Despite newly discovered oil and gas resources in South Africa, the country will continue to remain reliant on the industry's international investors since South Africa does not have the requisite expertise, skill and capital to operate efficiently in this industry. The shortage of capital to further develop the industry means that the country will need to continue to compete with other emerging markets to secure international investment. One such way of being an attractive investment destination has been touted through the offering of a tax regime with incentives which, more importantly, provides certainty and stability (Mausling, 2017: iv). South Africa introduced the Tenth Schedule to the Income Tax Act No.58 of 1962 (“Income Tax Act”) which aims to provide incentives that stimulate industrial and economic growth in the oil and gas industry. Against the backdrop of recent oil and gas finds, the Minister of Finance announced in the 2019 Budget Speech that changes to the Tenth Schedule would be considered. This has brought about the need to consider the role of fiscal stability agreements (“FSA”). Under the Tenth Schedule, South Africa offers FSAs which allows for the “freezing” of the Income tax provisions when the FSA was signed i.e. even if there is a new tax regime, the investor may elect to continue to use the old tax regime. Firstly, this dissertation considers whether there is a need for FSAs. To achieve this aim, the dissertation considers the reasons for fiscal instability and considers these within the South African context. These reasons are used to substantiate whether there is a need for FSA's as a remedy for fiscal instability. The current incentives offered by the Tenth Schedules are examined in order to determine the reasons as to why oil and gas companies would find FSAs advantageous. Secondly, the dissertation examines the types of FSAs typically offered, including freezing clauses (currently used in the FSA offered by South Africa), economic balancing clauses and, finally, hybrid clauses. In critically reviewing these different clauses, the most preferred clause is suggested. A further review of this preferred clause is enhanced through the consideration of the types of FSAs offered by comparable countries. Ghana and Mozambique have been identified and selected for comparison for the purposes of this study. The paper further considers aspects of the FSA such as the legality and legal effectiveness of FSAs. Such issues are critical in light of the challenges that have been identified in the use of FSAs, particularly that such instruments limit the State's sovereignty. Furthermore, the costs associated with FSAs are considered. Lastly, the remedies available should the state elect not to adhere to a FSA once in force are considered. The findings of the study suggest that there remains a need for FSAs in South Africa. However, the findings indicate a need to change the current fiscal stability clause into an economic balancing clause, in particular a negotiated economic balancing clause.
- ItemOpen AccessAn application of short rate modelling involving roll-over risk to caplet pricing(2022) Montgomery, Thomas; Backwell, AlexThe concept of roll-over risk encapsulates the risk that a bank sitting on an interbank panel may be unable to borrow at the interbank overnight reference rate at some point in the future. Roll-over risk is comprised of two separate risks: the risk that the bank may deteriorate in credit quality relative to the 'average' bank sitting on the interbank panel and the risk that the bank may experience worse liquidity than the 'average' panel bank. Roll-over risk has been offered as a possible explanation of basis spreads which have proliferated since the Global Financial Crisis. This dissertation makes use of the established methods in order incorporate rollover risk in the pricing of a caplet based on an underlying reference rate. The caplet pricing function is compared to traditional discretised Monte Carlo techniques. The performance of the function proves more accurate and computationally efficient.
- ItemOpen AccessCredit default swaps in a roll-over risk framework(2021) Petersen, Nicholas; Backwell, AlexSpreads between swap legs referencing floating cashflows of different tenors have widened significantly since the global financial crisis of 2008. This frequency basis can be explained by the presence of “roll-over risk”. Defining the roll-over risk state variables in an affine form, this dissertation prices a credit default swap using an “affine transform” methodology. This price is then compared to that obtained from a traditional Monte Carlo simulation approach. The former is shown to produce accurate results with greater computational efficiency, providing a useful way to price complex financial instruments when the state variables are defined in an appropriate form.
- ItemOpen AccessDeveloping a foundation for a globally coordinated approach to the taxation of crypto-asset transactions(2022) Parsons, Shaun; West, Craig; Roeleveld, JenniferCrypto-assets and blockchain technology have created much uncertainty within the field of taxation. While some jurisdictions have attempted to formulate responses, others have yet to meaningfully engage with the topic. In contrast to the taxation of the digitalised economy, a coordinated global approach to the taxation of crypto-asset transactions is notably lacking. Rather than focusing on individual jurisdictions, this study addresses the consequences of crypto-asset transactions within the international tax system. It begins by applying an adapted form of the constant comparison method traditionally employed in grounded theory research to a selection of crypto-assets white papers to inductively identify possible taxable events, and from these to develop ten transaction categories, each with definitive characteristics. These categories then form the basis of a doctrinal analysis of the nature within the international tax system of the income arising and its classification within the text of the articles of the model tax conventions. Finally, the study considers the potential future impact of measures to tax the digitalised economy. The study finds that while it is possible to classify each of the identified transaction categories within the articles of the model tax conventions, alternative constructions within treaties and existing differences in interpretation may still significantly impact the allocation of taxing rights. In addition, crypto-asset transactions may further challenge the role of the permanent establishment concept in determining taxing rights and contribute to base erosion. While such transactions may fall within the measures to tax the digitalised economy, the pseudonymous, decentralised nature of blockchain technology may frustrate the application of these measures. This study may inform individual jurisdictions in designing the scope and outcomes of a comprehensive response to crypto-asset transactions. It may also provide a basis for the classification of these transactions within the international tax system, and support the development of a globally coordinated response to the taxation of crypto-assets. Finally, it may contribute to the broader development of the taxation of the digitalised economy, in which crypto-asset transactions may play an increasingly significant role in the future.
- ItemOpen AccessForeign portfolio equity flows in selected Sub-Saharan Africa Countries: the underlying process, impact on stock market capitalisation, and policy options(2021) Mbao, Francis Ziwele; Toerien, Francois; Musongole, Maxwell ChibelushiThe volatility of capital flows and their adverse impact on macroeconomic and financial variables is a major concern to policy makers, resulting in a debate on whether capital controls or financial (capital account) liberalisation is best suited to managing them. This study argues that a better understanding of the underlying process of the foreign capital flows, that is, whether they are a random walk, a persistent, or an anti-persistent series, is a critical but currently lacking element in informing this debate. Specifically for foreign portfolio equity flows, there may also be need to understand their dynamic impact on stock markets. The purpose of this study is therefore to determine the underlying process of foreign portfolio equity flows in the sub-Saharan Africa countries for which a sufficiently long data series is available (i.e., Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Zambia); to establish the impact of these flows on the capitalisation of their stock markets; and draw conclusions on optimal policy choices based on this. Secondary monthly data, covering the period January 1994 to March 2019, is used, but with different sample periods for each country within that range. Structural break estimations are further undertaken to obtain more specific results. Fractal analysis is employed to estimate the Hurst parameter, a measure of the underlying process. This is aided by fractal signal classification, adopted from electronic and communication engineering and physiology, a novel approach in the analysis of capital flows, to avoid misinterpreting the estimated Hurst parameter. The correlation measure technique, another novelty in the analysis of foreign capital flows, is also used to further understand the underlying process of the flows. Bayesian techniques based on sign restrictions are employed in estimating the Calderon-Rossell model, a unique approach, to establish the impact of these flows on stock market capitalisation. The robustness of the results is tested with the Fry and Pagan Median target method. The results indicate that the underlying process of gross foreign portfolio equity inflows and outflows in the four sub-Saharan Africa countries are anti-persistent. Further, increases in market capitalisations owing to positive shocks to foreign portfolio equity inflows are greater than declines resulting from shocks to outflows. The policy implication of these results for the four SSA countries is that capital controls on foreign portfolio equity flows are redundant.
- ItemOpen AccessGram-Charlier expansions and option pricing(2022) Knipe, Joshua; Ouwehand, Peter; Mc Walter, ThomasGram-Charlier expansions provide a tractable way of fitting risk-neutral distributions to asset prices. This allows the model to capture skewness, excess kurtosis and higher moments in observed asset returns. Schlogl (2013) proposes a calibration method to ensure the fitted densities are valid and arbitrage free. This method is implemented with standard foreign exchange options and gives an exact fit when enough moments are included in the calibration process. GramCharlier expansions also result in analytic solutions for many exotic option prices through an extremely general framework. This relies on representing an option as a portfolio of the M-binaries defined by Skipper and Buchen (2003). Geometric Asian options are priced using this approach and compared to the corresponding Black-Scholes prices. Numerical examples highlight the effect skewness and excess kurtosis can have on these option prices, particularly for options that are out-the-money. Gram-Charlier distributions are also combined with Monte Carlo simulations to estimate option prices for calls and geometric Asian options. The results show convergence to the analytical solutions for all cases. Additionally, Gram-Charlier estimates for arithmetic Asian options are calculated and compared to Black-Scholes estimates.
- ItemOpen AccessPricing stochastic volatility models using random grids(2022) Rajkumar, Rishay; McWalter, ThomasAssets can be priced using a variety of numerical methods. In some instances, a particular numerical method may be more appropriate than others. If one method is used to calibrate the model to market conditions, but another method is used to price the asset, the results obtained may be inconsistent. This dissertation addresses the fundamental problem of this bias that is introduced when calibrating and pricing options using inconsistent methods. The random grids approach, developed by Andreasen and Huge (2011), is a pricing method that guarantees discrete consistency between calibration, finite difference solution and Markov-chain MonteCarlo simulation based on the random grids approach. This dissertation provides a review and implementation of this random grids approach for pricing under the Heston model as well as the stochastic local volatility model. Consistent results are obtained for a call option under the various pricing methods using similar parameters as those used in the random grids paper. More specifically, when using a Heston model, consistent prices are obtained for the characteristic function pricing method, the backward finite difference method, the forward finite difference method as well as the Markov-chain Monte-Carlo method based on the random grids approach. Similarly, consistent prices are obtained under the stochastic local volatility model for the backward finite difference method, the forward finite difference method and the Markov-chain Monte-Carlo method based on the random grids approach.
- ItemOpen AccessQuantitative models for prudential credit risk management(2021) Malwandla, Musa; Rajaratnam, Kanshukan; Clark, AllanThe thesis investigates the exogenous maturity vintage model (EMV) as a framework for achieving unification in consumer credit risk analysis. We explore how the EMV model can be used in origination modelling, impairment analysis, capital analysis, stress-testing and in the assessment of economic value. The thesis is segmented into five themes. The first theme addresses some of the theoretical challenges of the standard EMV model – namely, the identifiability problem and the forecasting of the components of the model in predictive applications. We extend the model beyond the three time dimensions by introducing a behavioural dimension. This allows the model to produce loan-specific estimates of default risk. By replacing the vintage component with either an application risk or a behavioural risk dimension, the model resolves the identifiability problem inherent in the standard model. We show that the same model can be used interchangeably to produce a point-in-time probability forecast, by fitting a time series regression for the exogenous component, and a through-the-cycle probability forecast, by omitting the exogenous component. We investigate the use of the model for regulatory capital and stress-testing under Basel III, as well as impairment provisioning under IFRS 9. We show that when a Gaussian link function is used the portfolio loss follows a Vašíček distribution. Furthermore, the asset correlation coefficient (as defined under Basel III) is shown to be a function of the level of systemic risk (which is measured by the variance of the exogenous component) and the extent to which the systemic risk can be modelled (which is measured by the coefficient of determination of the regression model for the exogenous component). The second theme addresses the problem of deriving a portfolio loss distribution from a loan-level model for loss. In most models (including the Basel-Vašíček regimes), this is done by assuming that the portfolio is infinitely large – resulting in a loss distribution that ignores diversifiable risk. We thus show that, holding all risk parameters constant, this assumption leads to an understatement of the level of risk within a portfolio – particularly for small portfolios. To overcome this weakness, we derive formulae that can be used to partition the portfolio risk into risk that is diversifiable and risk that is systemic. Using these formulae, we derive a loss distribution that better-represents losses under portfolios of all sizes. The third theme is concerned with two separate issues: (a) the problem of model selection in credit risk and (b) the problem of how to accurately measure probability of insolvency in a credit portfolio. To address the first problem, we use the EMV model to study the theoretical properties of the Gini statistic for default risk in a portfolio of loans and derive a formula that estimates the Gini statistic directly from the model parameters. We then show that the formulae derived to estimate the Gini statistic can be used to study the probability of insolvency. To do this, we first show that when capital requirements are determined to target a specific probability of solvency on a through-the-cycle basis, the point-in-time probability of insolvency can be considerably different from the through-the-cycle probability of insolvency – thus posing a challenge from a risk management perspective. We show that the extent of this challenge will be greater for more cyclical loan portfolios. We then show that the formula derived for the Gini statistic can be used to measure the extent of the point-in-time insolvency risk posed by using a through-the-cycle capital regime. The fourth theme considers the problem of survival modelling with time varying covariates. We propose an extension to the Cox regression model, allowing the inclusion of time-varying macroeconomic variables as covariates. The model is specifically applied to estimate the probability of default in a loan portfolio, where the experience is decomposed the experience into three dimensions: (a) a survival time dimension; (b) a behavioural risk dimension; and (c) calendar time dimension. In this regard, the model can also be viewed as an extension of the EMV model – adding a survival time dimension. A model is built for each dimension: (a) the survival time dimension is modelled by a baseline hazard curve; (b) the behavioural risk dimension is modelled by a behavioural risk index; and (c) the calendar time dimension is modelled by a macroeconomic risk index. The model lends itself to application in modelling probability of default under the IFRS 9 regime, where it can produce estimates of probability of default over variable time horizons, while accounting for time-varying macroeconomic variables. However, the model also has a broader scope of application beyond the domains of credit risk and banking. In the fifth and final theme, we introduce the concept of embedded value to a banking context. In longterm insurance, embedded value relates to the expected economic value (to shareholders) of a book of insurance contracts and is used for appraising insurance companies and measuring management's performance. We derive formulae for estimating the embedded value of a portfolio of loans, which we show to be a function of: (a) the spread between the rate charged to the borrower and the cost of funding; (b) the tenure of the loan; and (c) the level of credit risk inherent in the loan. We also show how economic value can be attributed between profits from maturity transformation and profits from credit and liquidity margin. We derive formulae that can be used to analyse the change in embedded value throughout the life of a loan. By modelling the credit loss component of embedded value, we derive a distribution for the economic value of a book of business. The literary contributions made by the thesis are of practical significance. The thesis offers a way for banks and regulators to accurately estimate the value of the asset correlation coefficient in a manner that controls for portfolio size and intertemporal heterogeneity. This will lead to improved precision in determining capital adequacy – particularly for institutions operating in uncertain environments and those operating small credit portfolios – ultimately enhancing the integrity of the financial system. The thesis also offers tools to help bank management appraise the financial performance of their businesses and measure the value created for shareholders.
- ItemOpen AccessSequence of return risk in South African post-retirement portfolios: the effectiveness of volatility-focused asset allocation strategies to address sequence and associated risks(2022) Schabort, Kilian Petika; West, DarronSequence of return risk (which is the risk of unfavourable investment outcomes at the most unfavourable time) is an important consideration for efficiently funding retirement portfolio spending goals. This study examines the sensitivity of retirement decumulation portfolios to sequence of return risk (“SOR risk”, also referred to as “sequence risk”) in a South African context and evaluates the effectiveness of five volatility-focused asset allocation strategies in addressing the risk. Using monthly asset index returns separated into bull and bear market regimes for the period 1991 to 2020, correlated non-normal returns were simulated and combined with independently simulated inflation to generate 10 000 independent 30-year simulation trials. The performance of each of the five strategies was measured against a benchmark set of portfolios using simulated data and was validated using partial out-of-sample historical data. Performance was assessed using the sustainable withdrawal rate (SWR) and actuarial coverage ratio (ACR) metrics. The sensitivity results showed that SOR is greatest at the retirement date, declining asymptotically (halving within the first ten years of retirement). The geographic diversification strategy showed clear benefit to reducing SOR whereas the results for the risk parity strategy were not conclusive. The analysis and comparison of the lowrisk, rising equity glidepath, and dynamic cash buffer strategies formed the focus of the study. All three showed considerable SOR potential with the dynamic cash buffer strategy outperforming the others and substantially reducing SOR relative to the benchmark.
- ItemOpen AccessWhat causes reduced tax morality and how can it be improved?(2021) Nteleza, Tinna Snenjongo; Tickle, DeborahThere has been a notable decline in the tax morality of South African taxpayers over the years. Tax morality is a term defined as the willingness of individuals to pay tax and comply with tax laws1 . The concerns over the decline in tax morality were raised by the National Treasury when discussing the widening tax gap between the budgeted tax revenue collections and the actual revenue collected (in the 2017 Budget Speech)2 . The importance of tax morality in South Africa cannot be overstated, the very success of South Africa's democracy is dependent on the very functioning of the fiscal citizenship principle, that means the state and the taxpayers must be committed to the operation of the democracy through the social contract, ie the taxpayers must be willing to pay their taxes and the government must provide the services due to the taxpayer, such as healthcare, education services and efficient infrastructure. In the evaluation of South Africa's tax morality, the tax revenue collection process and methodology must be reviewed. For personal income tax, with the exception of PAYE, taxpayers must declare their income earned in order for the income to be assessed. It is for this reason that tax morality should be regularly reviewed, to ensure that taxpayers are motivated to pay the right amount of tax and are compliant with tax laws. Where this is not the case, symptoms of broken fiscal citizenship can include aggressive tax avoidance, base erosion and profit shifting and tax evasion, to an extent that legislation needs to be constantly reviewed in order to protect the South African tax base. To review the tax morality of the Republic, revenue collection statistics such as tax buoyancy are reviewed, revealing that after the 2008/9 global financial crisis, the revenue collection statistics remained buoyant until the 2017/18 period during which time it decreased to 0.91 indicating a threat to the long-term sustainability of the fiscal policy. The tax revenue collections when compared to GDP statistics also signal concern, and when taking into account the rate at which high networth individuals are leaving the country and their reasons, it is clear that the South African government should be applying more focus and resources in improving tax morality. In order to recommend focus areas to improve tax morality, a review of research performed by the OECD globally into the tax morale of individuals and businesses around the world is used. The research focuses on factors influencing tax morale, which is a good indicator of what motivates taxpayers to participate in, and comply with a tax system. An overarching theme for individuals from the identified factors is the perspective of the government taxpayers have. It is this perspective that has been found in the study to influence whether individual taxpayers around the world comply with and participate in the tax laws of the country. For businesses, the most dominant factor appears to be tax certainty and while this is information derived from a general survey and on a limited population, it provides a general overview or a starting point in the improvement of tax morality. With the factors identified, an evaluation of how they impact the South African population and to what extent the findings may be true for the Republic are investigated. The socioeconomic and institutional factors identified in the global study are relatable in the South African context and the results from the survey show parallels between the global population and the South
- ItemOpen AccessWomen in business leadership and firm performance: a cross-country study(2021) Luo, Jing Ying; Toerien, FrancoisThis study investigates the relationship between female board and top management representation and corporate financial performance (measured i.t.o. ROA), and market sentiment (measured i.t.o. Tobin's Q). Three Western nations (the U.S., the U.K. and Germany) and two Asian countries (China and Japan), are considered, specifically with the aim of understanding the nature and extent of the relationship in each region individually, andany potential differences under different cultural environments. The study period was 2014- 2019 for the board representation analysis and, due to data constraints, only 2019 for the top management analysis. Random effects panel regression was used in the board level analysis and a multiple regression model was used to study the top management level impact. The results indicate a positive relationship between the performance measures and female representation at both the board and top management levels. However, the relationship is not statistically significant in the case of the board level analysis, but generally statistically significant for the top management analysis. The strength of the mostly positive relationships between female representation and the performance measures is generally stronger for the three Western countries (particularly for the US and the UK) compared to the two Asian countries, which could in part be due to the impact of cultural differences between them.