Browsing by Subject "Scientific Experimentation"

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    Sensitivity of the atmospheric response to sea-surface temperature forcing in the South West Indian Ocean: A regional climate modelling study
    (2006) Hansingo, K; Reason, C J C
    The MM5 regional climate model has been used to investigate the sensitivity of the atmospheric response to sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing in the South West Indian Ocean. Two model runs were analysed and compared against each other; namely, one in which the model was forced by an observed warm SST anomaly during a summer season with above-average rainfall over southern Africa, and the other in which the model was forced with a smoothed representation of this anomaly but with the centre shifted closer to the east coast of South Africa. The latter experiment was motivated by correlation analyses between rainfall and SST and by previous experiments with coarser-resolution global circulation models, which suggest that the model response over the land is larger if the SST forcing is shifted closer to it. Analysis of the differences in the model response between the two runs suggests that, consistent with the global models, the MM5 response is indeed larger over southern Africa and more conducive to above-average rainfall in the experiment with the smoothed and westward shifted SST forcing. Increased evaporation over the South West Indian Ocean, local uplift and enhanced moisture flux westwards into southern Africa (as well as southwards over the land from the equatorial region) all play a role in enhancing the regional atmospheric conditions favourable for rainfall over a large area of southern Africa during the season simulated