Browsing by Subject "Risk score"

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    Open Access
    Development and validation of a prognostic score during tuberculosis treatment
    (2017) Pefura-Yone, Eric Walter; Balkissou, Adamou Dodo; Poka-Mayap, Virginie; Fatime-Abaicho, Hadja Koté; Enono-Edende, Patrick Thierry; Kengne, André Pascal
    BACKGROUND: Death under care is a major challenge for tuberculosis (TB) treatment programs. We derived and validated a simple score to predict mortality during tuberculosis treatment in high endemicity areas. METHODS: We used data for patients aged ≥15 years, diagnosed and treated for tuberculosis at the Yaounde Jamot Hospital between January 2012 and December 2013. Baseline characteristics associated with mortality were investigated using logistic regressions. A simple prognosis score (CABI) was constructed with regression coefficients for predictors in the final model. Internal validation used bootstrap resampling procedures. Models discrimination was assessed using c-statistics and calibration assessed via calibration plots and the Hosmer and Lemeshwow (H-L) statistics. The optimal score was based on the Youden's index. RESULTS: A total of 2250 patients (men 57.2%) with a mean age of 35.8 years were included; among whom 213 deaths (cumulative incidence 9.5%) were recorded. Clinical form of tuberculosis (C), age (A, years), adjusted body mass index (B, BMI, kg/m2) and status for HIV (Human immunodefiency virus) infection (I) were significant predictors in the final model (p < 0.0001) which was of the form Death risk = 1/(1 + e - (-1.3120 + 0.0474 ∗ age - 0.1866 ∗ BMI + 1.1637 (if smear negative TB) + 0.5418(if extra - pulmonary TB) + 1.3820(if HIV+))). The c-statistic was 0.812 in the derivation sample and 0.808 after correction for optimism. The calibration was good [H-Lχ2 = 6.44 (p = 0.60)]. The optimal absolute risk threshold was 4.8%, corresponding to a sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 67%. CONCLUSIONS: The preliminary promising findings from this study require confirmation through independent external validation studies. If confirmed, the model derived could facilitate the stratification of TB patients for mortality risk and implementation of additional monitoring and management measures in vulnerable patients.
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    Open Access
    Prevalence of lifestyle cardiovascular risk factors and estimated framingham 10-year risk scores of adults with psychotic disorders compared to controls at a referral hospital in Eldoret, Kenya
    (2023-12-05) Kwobah, Edith; Koen, Nastassja; Mwangi, Ann; Atwoli, Lukoye; Stein, Dan J.
    Abstract Introduction Lifestyle factors such as smoking, alcohol use, suboptimal diet, and inadequate physical activity have been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. There are limited data on these risk factors among patients with psychosis in low- and middle-income countries. Objectives This study aimed to establish the prevalence of lifestyle cardiovascular risk factors, and the 10-year cardiovascular risk scores and associated factors in patients with psychosis compared to controls at Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Eldoret, Kenya. Methods A sample of 297 patients with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or bipolar mood disorder; and 300 controls matched for age and sex were included in this analysis. A study specific researcher-administered questionnaire was used to collect data on demographics, antipsychotic medication use, smoking, alcohol intake, diet, and physical activity. Weight, height, abdominal circumference, and blood pressure were also collected to calculate the Framingham 10-year Cardiovascular Risk Score (FRS), while blood was drawn for measurement of glucose level and lipid profile. Pearson’s chi-squared tests and t-tests were employed to assess differences in cardiovascular risk profiles between patients and controls, and a linear regression model was used to determine predictors of 10-year cardiovascular risk in patients. Results Compared to controls, patients with psychosis were more likely to have smoked in their lifetimes (9.9% vs. 3.3%, p = 0.006) or to be current smokers (13.8% vs. 7%, p = 0.001). Over 97% of patients with psychosis consumed fewer than five servings of fruits and vegetables per week; 78% engaged in fewer than three days of vigorous exercise per week; and 48% sat for more than three hours daily. The estimated 10-year risk of CVD was relatively low in this study: the FRS in patients was 3.16, compared to 2.93 in controls. The estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk in patients was significantly associated with female sex (p = 0.007), older patients (p < 0.001), current tobacco smoking (p < 0.001), and metabolic syndrome (p < 0.001). Conclusion In the setting of Eldoret, there is suboptimal physical exercise and intake of healthy diet among patients with psychosis and controls. While the estimated risk score among patients is relatively low in our study, these data may be useful for informing future studies geared towards informing interventions to promote healthy lifestyles in this population.