Browsing by Subject "Risk Assessment"

Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
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    Development and validation of a prognostic score during tuberculosis treatment
    (2017) Pefura-Yone, Eric Walter; Balkissou, Adamou Dodo; Poka-Mayap, Virginie; Fatime-Abaicho, Hadja Koté; Enono-Edende, Patrick Thierry; Kengne, André Pascal
    BACKGROUND: Death under care is a major challenge for tuberculosis (TB) treatment programs. We derived and validated a simple score to predict mortality during tuberculosis treatment in high endemicity areas. METHODS: We used data for patients aged ≥15 years, diagnosed and treated for tuberculosis at the Yaounde Jamot Hospital between January 2012 and December 2013. Baseline characteristics associated with mortality were investigated using logistic regressions. A simple prognosis score (CABI) was constructed with regression coefficients for predictors in the final model. Internal validation used bootstrap resampling procedures. Models discrimination was assessed using c-statistics and calibration assessed via calibration plots and the Hosmer and Lemeshwow (H-L) statistics. The optimal score was based on the Youden's index. RESULTS: A total of 2250 patients (men 57.2%) with a mean age of 35.8 years were included; among whom 213 deaths (cumulative incidence 9.5%) were recorded. Clinical form of tuberculosis (C), age (A, years), adjusted body mass index (B, BMI, kg/m2) and status for HIV (Human immunodefiency virus) infection (I) were significant predictors in the final model (p < 0.0001) which was of the form Death risk = 1/(1 + e - (-1.3120 + 0.0474 ∗ age - 0.1866 ∗ BMI + 1.1637 (if smear negative TB) + 0.5418(if extra - pulmonary TB) + 1.3820(if HIV+))). The c-statistic was 0.812 in the derivation sample and 0.808 after correction for optimism. The calibration was good [H-Lχ2 = 6.44 (p = 0.60)]. The optimal absolute risk threshold was 4.8%, corresponding to a sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 67%. CONCLUSIONS: The preliminary promising findings from this study require confirmation through independent external validation studies. If confirmed, the model derived could facilitate the stratification of TB patients for mortality risk and implementation of additional monitoring and management measures in vulnerable patients.
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    HIV Risk and Associations of HIV Infection among men who have sex with men in Peri-Urban Cape Town, South Africa
    (BioMed Central Ltd, 2011) Baral, Stefan; Burrell, Earl; Scheibe, Andrew; Brown, Ben; Beyrer, Chris; Bekker, Linda-Gail
    BACKGROUND:The HIV epidemic in Sub Saharan Africa has been traditionally assumed to be driven by high risk heterosexual and vertical transmission. However, there is an increasing body of data highlighting the disproportionate burden of HIV infection among MSM in the generalized HIV epidemics across of Southern Africa. In South Africa specifically, there has been an increase in attention focused on the risk status and preventive needs of MSM both in urban centers and peri-urban townships. The study presented here represents the first evaluation of HIV prevalence and associations of HIV infection among MSM in the peri-urban townships of Cape Town. METHODS: The study consisted of an anonymous probe of 200 men, reporting ever having had sex with another man, recruited through venue-base sampling from January to February, 2009. RESULTS: Overall, HIV prevalence was 25.5% (n = 51/200). Of these prevalent HIV infections, only 6% of HIV-1 infected MSM were aware of their HIV status (3/50). 0% of men reported always having safe sex as defined by always wearing condoms during sex and using water-based lubricants. Independent associations with HIV infection included inconsistent condom use with male partners (aOR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0-5.4), having been blackmailed (aOR 4.4, 95% CI 1.6-20.2), age over 26 years (aOR 4.2, 95% CI 1.6-10.6), being unemployed (aOR 3.7, 95% CI 1.5-9.3), and rural origin (aOR 6.0, 95% CI 2.2-16.7). Bisexual activity was reported by 17.1% (34/199), and a total of 8% (16/200) reported having a regular female partner. Human rights violations were common with 10.5% (n = 21/200) reporting having been blackmailed and 21.0% (n = 42/200) reporting being afraid to seek health care. CONCLUSIONS: The conclusions from this study include that a there is a high risk and underserved population of MSM in the townships surrounding Cape Town. The high HIV prevalence and high risk sexual practices suggest that prevalence will continue to increase among these men in the context of an otherwise slowing epidemic. These data further highlight the need to better characterize risk factors for HIV prevention and appropriate targeted combination packages of HIV interventions including biomedical, behavioural, and structural approaches to mitigate HIV risk among these men.
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    Poverty, AIDS and child health: Identifying highest-risk children in South Africa
    (2013) Cluver, Lucie; Boyes, Mark; Orkin, Mark; Sherr, Lorraine
    BACKGROUND: Identifying children at the highest risk of negative health effects is a prerequisite to effective public health policies in Southern Africa. A central ongoing debate is whether poverty, orphanhood or parental AIDS most reliably indicates child health risks. Attempts to address this key question have been constrained by a lack of data allowing distinction of AIDS-specific parental death or morbidity from other causes of orphanhood and chronic illness. OBJECTIVES: To examine whether household poverty, orphanhood and parental illness (by AIDS or other causes) independently or interactively predict child health, developmental and HIV-infection risks. METHODS: We interviewed 6 002 children aged 10 - 17 years in 2009 - 2011, using stratified random sampling in six urban and rural sites across three South African provinces. Outcomes were child mental health risks, educational risks and HIV-infection risks. Regression models that controlled for socio-demographic co-factors tested potential impacts and interactions of poverty, AIDS-specific and other orphanhood and parental illness status. RESULTS: Household poverty independently predicted child mental health and educational risks, AIDS orphanhood independently predicted mental health risks and parental AIDS illness independently predicted mental health, educational and HIV-infection risks. Interaction effects of poverty with AIDS orphanhood and parental AIDS illness were found across all outcomes. No effects, or interactions with poverty, were shown by AIDS-unrelated orphanhood or parental illness. CONCLUSIONS: The identification of children at highest risk requires recognition and measurement of both poverty and parental AIDS. This study shows negative impacts of poverty and AIDS-specific vulnerabilities distinct from orphanhood and adult illness more generally. Additionally, effects of interaction between family AIDS and poverty suggest that, where these co-exist, children are at highest risk of all.
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    Prevention of diseases after menopause
    (2014) Lobo, R A; Davis, S R; de Villiers, T J; Gompel, A; Henderson, V W; Hodis, H N; Lumsden, M A; Mack, W J; Shapiro, S; Baber, R J
    AbstractWomen may expect to spend more than a third of their lives after menopause. Beginning in the sixth decade, many chronic diseases will begin to emerge, which will affect both the quality and quantity of a woman's life. Thus, the onset of menopause heralds an opportunity for prevention strategies to improve the quality of life and enhance longevity. Obesity, metabolic syndrome and diabetes, cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis and osteoarthritis, cognitive decline, dementia and depression, and cancer are the major diseases of concern. Prevention strategies at menopause have to begin with screening and careful assessment for risk factors, which should also include molecular and genetic diagnostics, as these become available. Identification of certain risks will then allow directed therapy. Evidence-based prevention for the diseases noted above include lifestyle management, cessation of smoking, curtailing excessive alcohol consumption, a healthy diet and moderate exercise, as well as mentally stimula...
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    Referral outcomes of individuals identified at high risk of cardiovascular disease by community health workers in Bangladesh, Guatemala, Mexico, and South Africa
    (2015) Levitt, Naomi S; Puoane, Thandi; Denman, Catalina A; Abrahams-Gessel, Shafika; Surka, Sam; Mendoza, Carlos; Khanam, Masuma; Alam, Sartaj; Gaziano, Thomas A
    BackgroundWe have found that community health workers (CHWs) with appropriate training are able to accurately identify people at high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in the community who would benefit from the introduction of preventative management, in Bangladesh, Guatemala, Mexico, and South Africa. This paper examines the attendance pattern for those individuals who were so identified and referred to a health care facility for further assessment and management.DesignPatient records from the health centres in each site were reviewed for data on diagnoses made and treatment commenced. Reasons for non-attendance were sought from participants who had not attended after being referred. Qualitative data were collected from study coordinators regarding their experiences in obtaining the records and conducting the record reviews. The perspectives of CHWs and community members, who were screened, were also obtained.ResultsThirty-seven percent (96/263) of those referred attended follow-up: 36 of 52 (69%) were urgent and 60 of 211 (28.4%) were non-urgent referrals. A diagnosis of hypertension (HTN) was made in 69% of urgent referrals and 37% of non-urgent referrals with treatment instituted in all cases. Reasons for non-attendance included limited self-perception of risk, associated costs, health system obstacles, and lack of trust in CHWs to conduct CVD risk assessments and to refer community members into the health system.ConclusionsThe existing barriers to referral in the health care systems negatively impact the gains to be had through screening by training CHWs in the use of a simple risk assessment tool. The new diagnoses of HTN and commencement on treatment in those that attended referrals underscores the value of having persons at the highest risk identified in the community setting and referred to a clinic for further evaluation and treatment.
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    Risks and benefits of hormone therapy: has medical dogma now been overturned?
    (2014) Shapiro, S; de Villiers, T J; Pines, A; Sturdee, D W; Baber, R J; Panay, N; Stevenson, J C; Mueck, A O; Burger, H G
    BACKGROUND In an integrated overview of the benefits and risks of menopausal hormone therapy (HT), the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) investigators have claimed that their 'findings … do not support use of this therapy for chronic disease prevention'. In an accompanying editorial, it was claimed that 'the WHI overturned medical dogma regarding menopausal [HT]'. OBJECTIVES To evaluate those claims. METHODS Epidemiological criteria of causation were applied to the evidence. RESULTS A 'global index' purporting to summarize the overall benefit versus the risk of HT was not valid, and it was biased. For coronary heart disease, an increased risk in users of estrogen plus progestogen (E + P), previously reported by the WHI, was not confirmed. The WHI study did not establish that E+ P increases the risk of breast cancer; the findings suggest that unopposed estrogen therapy (ET) does not increase the risk, and may even reduce it. The findings for stroke and pulmonary embolism were compatible with an increased risk, and among E+ P users there were credible reductions in the risk of colorectal and endometrial cancer. For E+ P and ET users, there were credible reductions in the risk of hip fracture. Under 'worst case' and 'best case' assumptions, the changes in the incidence of the outcomes attributable to HT were minor. CONCLUSIONS Over-interpretation and misrepresentation of the WHI findings have damaged the health and well-being of menopausal women by convincing them and their health professionals that the risks of HT outweigh the benefits.
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    The disproportionate burden of HIV and STIs among male sex workers in Mexico City and the rationale for economic incentives to reduce risks
    (2014) Galárraga, Omar; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G; González, Andrea; Badial-Hernández, Florentino; Conde-Glez, Carlos J; Juárez-Figueroa, Luis; Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Kuo, Caroline; Operario, Don; Mayer, Kenneth H
    IntroductionThe objective of this article is to present the rationale and baseline results for a randomized controlled pilot trial using economic incentives to reduce HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk among male sex workers (MSWs) in Mexico City.MethodsParticipants (n=267) were tested and treated for STIs (chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis and HIV) and viral hepatitis (hepatitis B and C), received HIV and STI prevention education and were randomized into four groups: (1) control, (2) medium conditional incentive ($50/six months), (3) high conditional incentive ($75/six months) and (4) unconditional incentive ($50/six months). In the conditional arms, incentives were contingent upon testing free of new curable STIs (chlamydia, gonorrhoea and syphilis) at follow-up assessments.ResultsParticipants’ mean age was 25 years; 8% were homeless or lived in a shelter, 16% were unemployed and 21% lived in Mexico City less than 5 years. At baseline, 38% were living with HIV, and 32% tested positive for viral hepatitis or at least one STI (other than HIV). Participants had a mean of five male clients in the previous week; 18% reported condomless sex with their last client. For 37%, sex work was their main occupation and was conducted mainly on the streets (51%) or in bars/discotheques (24%) and hotels (24%). The average price for a sex transaction was $25 with a 35% higher payment for condomless sex.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that economic incentives are a relevant approach for HIV prevention among MSWs, given the market-based inducements for unprotected sex. This type of targeted intervention seems to be justified and should continue to be explored in the context of combination prevention efforts.