Browsing by Subject "QE1-996.5"

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    Open Access
    Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models
    (2015) Laufkötter, C; Vogt, M; Gruber, N; Aita-Noguchi, M; Aumont, O; Bopp, L; Buitenhuis, E; Doney, S C; Dunne, J; Hashioka, T; Hauck, J; Hirata, T; John, J; Le Quéré, C; Lima, D I; Nakano, H; Seferian, R; Totterdell, I; Vichi, M; Völker, C
    Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean and mostly ignored the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model simulated changes of NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high emission scenario RCP8.5 using a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth System Models with embedded marine ecosystem models with a focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, five out of the nine models show a decrease in NPP over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40%. In this region, the inter-quartile range of the differences between the 2012–2031 average and the 2081–2100 average is up to 3 mol C m-2 yr-1. These large differences in future change mirror large differences in present day NPP. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification and reduced upwelling. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduces NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while the remaining model simulates changes of less than 0.5%. While there is more consistency in the modeled increase in NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development.
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    Open Access
    Sea–air CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean for the period 1990–2009
    (2013) Laufkötter, C; Hoppema, M; Lovenduski, N S; Matear, R J; McNeil, B I; Metzl, N; Mikaloff Fletcher, S E; Monteiro, P M S; Rödenbeck, C; Sweeney, C; Takahashi, T
    The Southern Ocean (44-75° S) plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle, yet remains one of the most poorly sampled ocean regions. Different approaches have been used to estimate sea-air CO2 fluxes in this region: synthesis of surface ocean observations, ocean biogeochemical models, and atmospheric and ocean inversions. As part of the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) project, we combine these different approaches to quantify and assess the magnitude and variability in Southern Ocean sea-air CO2 fluxes between 1990-2009. Using all models and inversions (26), the integrated median annual sea-air CO2 flux of -0.42 ± 0.07 Pg C yr-1 for the 44-75° S region, is consistent with the -0.27 ± 0.13 Pg C yr-1 calculated using surface observations. The circumpolar region south of 58° S has a small net annual flux (model and inversion median: -0.04 ± 0.07 Pg C yr-1 and observations: +0.04 ± 0.02 Pg C yr-1), with most of the net annual flux located in the 44 to 58° S circumpolar band (model and inversion median: -0.36 ± 0.09 Pg C yr-1 and observations: -0.35 ± 0.09 Pg C yr-1). Seasonally, in the 44-58° S region, the median of 5 ocean biogeochemical models captures the observed sea-air CO2 flux seasonal cycle, while the median of 11 atmospheric inversions shows little seasonal change in the net flux. South of 58° S, neither atmospheric inversions nor ocean biogeochemical models reproduce the phase and amplitude of the observed seasonal sea-air CO2 flux, particularly in the Austral Winter. Importantly, no individual atmospheric inversion or ocean biogeochemical model is capable of reproducing both the observed annual mean uptake and the observed seasonal cycle. This raises concerns about projecting future changes in Southern Ocean CO2 fluxes. The median interannual variability from atmospheric inversions and ocean biogeochemical models is substantial in the Southern Ocean; up to 25% of the annual mean flux, with 25% of this interannual variability attributed to the region south of 58° S. Resolving long-term trends is difficult due to the large interannual variability and short time frame (1990-2009) of this study; this is particularly evident from the large spread in trends from inversions and ocean biogeochemical models. Nevertheless, in the period 1990-2009 ocean biogeochemical models do show increasing oceanic uptake consistent with the expected increase of -0.05 Pg C yr-1 decade-1. In contrast, atmospheric inversions suggest little change in the strength of the CO2 sink broadly consistent with the results of Le Quéré et al. (2007).
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    Synoptic relationships between surface Chlorophyll-a and diagnostic pigments specific to phytoplankton functional types
    (2011) Hirata, T; Hardman-Mountford, N J; Brewin, R J W; Aiken, J; Barlow, R; Suzuki, K; Isada, T; Howell, E; Hashioka, T; Noguchi-Aita, M; Yamanaka, Y
    Error-quantified, synoptic-scale relationships between chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and phytoplankton pigment groups at the sea surface are presented. A total of ten pigment groups were considered to represent three Phytoplankton Size Classes (PSCs, micro-, nano- and picoplankton) and seven Phytoplankton Functional Types (PFTs, i.e. diatoms, dinoflagellates, green algae, prymnesiophytes (haptophytes), pico-eukaryotes, prokaryotes and Prochlorococcus sp.). The observed relationships between Chl-a and PSCs/PFTs were well-defined at the global scale to show that a community shift of phytoplankton at the basin and global scales is reflected by a change in Chl-a of the total community. Thus, Chl-a of the total community can be used as an index of not only phytoplankton biomass but also of their community structure. Within these relationships, we also found non-monotonic variations with Chl-a for certain pico-sized phytoplankton (pico-eukaryotes, Prokaryotes and Prochlorococcus sp.) and nano-sized phytoplankton (Green algae, prymnesiophytes). The relationships were quantified with a least-square fitting approach in order to enable an estimation of the PFTs from Chl-a where PFTs are expressed as a percentage of the total Chl-a. The estimated uncertainty of the relationships depends on both PFT and Chl-a concentration. Maximum uncertainty of 31.8% was found for diatoms at Chl-a = 0.49 mg m 3. However, the mean uncertainty of the relationships over all PFTs was 5.9% over the entire Chl-a range observed in situ (0.02
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    Testing the performance of state-of-the-art dust emission schemes using DO4Models field data
    (2015) Haustein, K; Washington, R; King, J; Wiggs, G; Thomas, D S G; Eckardt, F D; Bryant, R G; Menut, L
    Within the framework of the Dust Observations for Models (DO4Models) project, the performance of three commonly used dust emission schemes is investigated in this paper using a box model environment. We constrain the model with field data (surface and dust particle properties as well as meteorological parameters) obtained from a dry lake bed with a crusted surface in Botswana during a 3 month period in 2011. Our box model results suggest that all schemes fail to reproduce the observed horizontal dust flux. They overestimate the magnitude of the flux by several orders of magnitude. The discrepancy is much smaller for the vertical dust emission flux, albeit still overestimated by up to an order of magnitude. The key parameter for this mismatch is the surface crusting which limits the availability of erosive material, even at higher wind speeds. The second-most important parameter is the soil size distribution. Direct dust entrainment was inferred to be important for several dust events, which explains the smaller gap between modelled and measured vertical dust fluxes. We conclude that both features, crusted surfaces and direct entrainment, need to be incorporated into dust emission schemes in order to represent the entire spectra of source processes. We also conclude that soil moisture exerts a key control on the threshold shear velocity and hence the emission threshold of dust in the model. In the field, the state of the crust is the controlling mechanism for dust emission. Although the crust is related to the soil moisture content to some extent, we are not as yet able to deduce a robust correlation between state of crust and soil moisture.
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    Towards accounting for dissolved iron speciation in global ocean models
    (2011) Tagliabue, A; Gruber, N
    The trace metal iron (Fe) is now routinely included in state-of-the-art ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry models (OGCBMs) because of its key role as a limiting nutrient in regions of the world ocean important for carbon cycling and air-sea CO2 exchange. However, the complexities of the seawater Fe cycle, which impact its speciation and bioavailability, are highly simplified in such OGCBMs to avoid high computational costs. In a similar fashion to inorganic carbon speciation, we outline a means by which the complex speciation of Fe can be included in global OGCBMs in a reasonably cost-effective manner. We use our Fe speciation to suggest the global distribution of different Fe species is tightly controlled by environmental variability (temperature, light, oxygen and pH) and the assumptions regarding Fe binding ligands. Impacts on bioavailable Fe are highly sensitive to assumptions regarding which Fe species are bioavailable. When forced by representations of future ocean circulation and climate we find large changes to the speciation of Fe governed by pH mediated changes to redox kinetics. We speculate that these changes may exert selective pressure on phytoplankton Fe uptake strategies in the future ocean. We hope our modeling approach can also be used as a ''test bed'' for exploring our understanding of Fe speciation at the global scale.