Browsing by Subject "Machine learning"

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    Open Access
    Development of a process modelling methodology and condition monitoring platform for air-cooled condensers
    (2021) Haffejee, Rashid Ahmed; Laubscher, Ryno
    Air-cooled condensers (ACCs) are a type of dry-cooling technology that has seen an increase in implementation globally, particularly in the power generation industry, due to its low water consumption. Unfortunately, ACC performance is susceptible to changing ambient conditions, such as dry bulb temperatures, wind direction, and wind speeds. This can result in performance reduction under adverse ambient conditions, which leads to increased turbine back pressures and in turn, a decrease in generated electricity. Therefore, this creates a demand to monitor and predict ACC performance under changing ambient conditions. This study focuses on modelling a utility-scale ACC system at steady-state conditions applying a 1-D network modelling approach and using a component-level discretization approach. This approach allowed for each cell to be modelled individually, accounting for steam duct supply behaviour, and for off-design conditions to be investigated. The developed methodology was based on existing empirical correlations for condenser cells and adapted to model double-row dephlegmators. A utility-scale 64-cell ACC system based in South Africa was selected for this study. The thermofluid network model was validated using site data with agreement in results within 1%; however, due to a lack of site data, the model was not validated for off-design conditions. The thermofluid network model was also compared to the existing lumped approach and differences were observed due to the steam ducting distribution. The effect of increasing ambient air temperature from 25 35  −  C C was investigated, with a heat rejection rate decrease of 10.9 MW and a backpressure increase of 7.79 kPa across the temperature range. Condensers' heat rejection rate decreased with higher air temperatures, while dephlegmators' heat rejection rate increased due to the increased outlet vapour pressure and flow rates from condensers. Off-design conditions were simulated, including hot air recirculation and wind effects. For wind effects, the developed model predicted a decrease in heat rejection rate of 1.7 MW for higher wind speeds, while the lumped approach predicted an increase of 4.9 . MW For practicality, a data-driven surrogate model was developed through machine learning techniques using data generated by the thermofluid network model. The surrogate model predicted systemlevel ACC performance indicators such as turbine backpressure and total heat rejection rate. Multilayer perceptron neural networks were developed in the form of a regression network and binary classifier network. For the test sets, the regression network had an average relative error of 0.3%, while the binary classifier had a 99.85% classification accuracy. The surrogate model was validated to site data over a 3 week operating period, with 93.5% of backpressure predictions within 6% of site data backpressures. The surrogate model was deployed through a web-application prototype which included a forecasting tool to predict ACC performance based on a weather forecast.
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    Open Access
    A treatment recommender clinical decision support system for personalized medicine: method development and proof-of-concept for drug resistant tuberculosis
    (2022-03-02) Verboven, Lennert; Calders, Toon; Callens, Steven; Black, John; Maartens, Gary; Dooley, Kelly E; Potgieter, Samantha; Warren, Robin M; Laukens, Kris; Van Rie, Annelies
    Background Personalized medicine tailors care based on the patient’s or pathogen’s genotypic and phenotypic characteristics. An automated Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) could help translate the genotypic and phenotypic characteristics into optimal treatment and thus facilitate implementation of individualized treatment by less experienced physicians. Methods We developed a hybrid knowledge- and data-driven treatment recommender CDSS. Stakeholders and experts first define the knowledge base by identifying and quantifying drug and regimen features for the prototype model input. In an iterative manner, feedback from experts is harvested to generate model training datasets, machine learning methods are applied to identify complex relations and patterns in the data, and model performance is assessed by estimating the precision at one, mean reciprocal rank and mean average precision. Once the model performance no longer iteratively increases, a validation dataset is used to assess model overfitting. Results We applied the novel methodology to develop a treatment recommender CDSS for individualized treatment of drug resistant tuberculosis as a proof of concept. Using input from stakeholders and three rounds of expert feedback on a dataset of 355 patients with 129 unique drug resistance profiles, the model had a 95% precision at 1 indicating that the highest ranked treatment regimen was considered appropriate by the experts in 95% of cases. Use of a validation data set however suggested substantial model overfitting, with a reduction in precision at 1 to 78%. Conclusion Our novel and flexible hybrid knowledge- and data-driven treatment recommender CDSS is a first step towards the automation of individualized treatment for personalized medicine. Further research should assess its value in fields other than drug resistant tuberculosis, develop solid statistical approaches to assess model performance, and evaluate their accuracy in real-life clinical settings.