OpenUCT :: Browsing by Subject "Investment Management"

Browsing by Subject "Investment Management"

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Open Access
A simulation-based approach to assessing the relationship between mutual fund size and performance
(2020) Molyneux, Matthew; Rajaratnam, Kanshukan
This study examines how mutual fund size affects performance. Academic literature on this topic is extensive but has yielded conflicting results. Some studies find a distinct relationship between fund size and risk-adjusted returns while others do not; some studies also posit that an optimal fund size exists where risk-adjusted returns are maximised. The size of equity mutual funds in South Africa and the market dynamics of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange provide an interesting context within which to analyse the relationship between size and performance. In this study, hypothetical portfolios are created, and an allocation procedure is used to distribute capital to these hypothetical portfolios. The allocation procedure distributes capital to the portfolio stocks by controlling for each stock's yearly volume traded. This method works to distribute capital up until a certain fund size; beyond that size, the hypothetical portfolio might no longer be fully invested in the random portfolio. To control for this, the simulation model engages in a routine to discard the stock with the lowest volume-traded level from the portfolio and reselect another stock from the investable universe with a higher volume-traded level. This process is repeated until the portfolio is fully invested. Stock selection and investment dates are randomised and variance reduction techniques are used to improve the efficiency of the simulation, and 10 000 simulation runs are performed. The results of the simulation found a non-monotonic relationship between mutual fund size and performance over a one-year holding period, consistent with some research internationally and in South Africa. Over a two- and three-year holding period, mutual fund size and returns, however, seem to be negatively correlated. Over the three holding periods, the study suggests that the optimal equity mutual fund size in South Africa is approximately ZAR 2bn. Portfolios with assets under management greater than ZAR 2bn see their returns decrease noticeably as fund size continues to increase. These findings are supported by comparing simulated returns to actual benchmark returns over the same random periods. The results of this study suggest that mutual funds should be aware that consistent increases in assets under management could negatively affect performance and that all funds should ensure that total assets under management do not exceed ZAR 2bn.
Open Access
Alternative fixed income indexation: A study on fundamental indexes in the South African corporate bond market
(2015) Kujenga, Tinodiwanashe
Indexation serves as a cornerstone of the asset management field. As such, asset managers across the globe are constantly testing different methodologies to find one which provides consistent superior performance against the rest. While previously, market capitalization weighted indexes have been the popular and simpler method to implement, the search of outperformance has evolved from only focusing on picking securities from larger institutions and has expanded to trying out various weighting methods so as to maximize on the best performing instruments. As yet, there is no definite winner, with the success of most methods being largely influenced by the type of market for which the index is intended as well as the macro-economic environment prevailing during the period. However, the fundamental indexation method has recently gained popularity, particularly in the global equity markets. This research paper explores the method of fundamental indexation and applies it to the corporate fixed income section of the South African market. The main aim is to determine whether the significant outperformance, which has been found in global fixed income markets as well as global and domestic equity markets, will hold true when the method is implemented on domestic bonds. This investigation uses the current domestic market corporate bond index, the OTHI, as a benchmark against two alternative bond indexes created using the fundamental indexing methodology. The first alternative index is a direct replication of the OTHI and has identical constituents to those of the original. This is called the OTHI_ALT. However, finding that the OTHI is heavily influenced by the debt issues of the government and other parastatal companies, a second more diverse index is created. This is named the SAFI_ALT, which maintains the same number of constituents in each period as the OTHI, but uses different universe selection methods and thus has different constituents. The study creates four sub-indexes for both the OTHI_ALT and the SAFI_ALT, using the fundamental metrics of the companies whose securities are included in the index. The fundamentals used are Sales, Cash Flow and Book Value, and in addition a Composite of all three fundamentals.
Open Access
An investigation into higher and partial moment portfolio selection frameworks
(2019) Polden, Stuart John; Rajaratnam, Kanshukan
This dissertation highlights the importance of considering higher moments and partial moments of the distribution when conducting portfolio optimisation and selection. This is due partly to the weaknesses of mean-variance optimisation, as discussed throughout the dissertation, and the appropriateness of considering higher moments to better meet the investors utility functions. This dissertation investigates the usage of two bi-objective optimisation frameworks, a Skewness/Semivariance framework previously suggested by Brito et al (2016), and a proposed upside and downside semivariance framework (referred to as Semivariance/Semivariance), developed from Cumova and Nawrocki’s (2014) general upper partial and lower partial moment framework. It solves the endogeneity issue present in the co-semivariance matrices, through the usage of a direct multi-search algorithm. The two frameworks were tested across multiple datasets, including one of pure stocks and one of asset classes, to test the ability to both allocate assets and select stocks. The performance was measured through nominal returns, statistical tests, Sharpe ratios, Sortino ratios, and Skewness/Semivariance ratios. The results reveal the Semivariance/Semivariance optimisation process to outperform the Skewness/Semivariance optimisation in the majority of the cases investigated. This suggests it may be a superior selection optimisation process. Furthermore, the Semivariance/Semivariance portfolios remain competitive with the benchmark portfolios selected in this dissertation, often outperforming them on an absolute return and ratio basis; however, this outperformance has not consistently proven to be statistically significant.
Open Access
An investigation into South African property unit trusts: do active managers add value to investors?
(2020) Rickens, Carl; van Rensburg, Paul
Active vs passive management is a central debate within asset management, with active managers promising superior market beating performance after fees through their superior knowledge and stock selection. This study investigates the performance of 34 South African property unit trusts over multiple periods between 2005 and 2018. Fund performance was evaluated using three risk-adjusted measures, namely the Sharpe ratio, information ratio and Jensen's alpha, in order to determine whether there is significant outperformance amongst the funds. The benchmark used to compare performance was the South African Listed Property index (SAPY), which is the most common and well established proxy for the South African property market. The sample was divided into three periods, long term 2005-2018, medium term 2008-2018 and short term 2015-2018. In all periods, outperformance of active funds were shown to be inconclusive, with only a small number of funds showing significant positive alphas and significantly high Sharpe and information ratios. A small number of funds achieved outperformance across multiple periods. On average significant outperformance was uncommon and inconsistent. Furthermore, a number of funds achieved significant underperformance over multiple periods, with inferior risk-adjusted returns and alphas compared to the benchmark. However, the volatility of fund returns were shown to be less than the benchmark on average in all periods, indicating that active managers were able to reduce volatility compared to the benchmark. In the more recent short term period, performance of the active funds were especially low with many negative alphas' present. The best performing fund across multiple periods was shown to be a risk parity portfolio of property stocks, which achieved significantly higher returns whilst having lower volatility than the benchmark and other funds. Ultimately the results suggest that active managers in the sector do not provide sufficient evidence for outperformance. Hence investors are better of making use of passive indices or a risk parity portfolio if they are looking for exposure to South African listed property. This is in line with other international studies which have also found that active management in the property industry does not provide significant and consistent outperformance. These results provide useful insight to property investors in South Africa and contribute to the debate between active vs passive management within the financial literature.
Open Access
An investigation into the profitability and sustainability of market timing strategies in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): A global perspective
(2022) Barry, Nortimer; Charteris, Ailie
The buying and selling activity of market participants creates dynamic movements in the prices of listed securities. Investors typically aim to realise short term profit from this volatility using market timing strategies. Several studies have explored the reliability of market timing rules across asset classes. The unique properties of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and the consequent potential predictability in the returns of this asset class has raised the question of whether market timing strategies can be successfully applied to this asset class. This study investigates the effectiveness of market timing strategies on REITs and whether the effectiveness of these strategies persists through market crises. The study covers the period from January 2001 to December 2020 and employs data from six of the largest REITs markets globally – the United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Australia, Brazil, and South Africa. Four market timing strategies are studied: the moving average, time series momentum, modified moving average crossover, and dual momentum, and, as such, the analysis provides a comparison of market timing strategies that are seldom observed together. The effectiveness of these strategies is also tested over three periods covering the Global Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt crisis; and the Covid-19 pandemic. In general, the MA and TSM market timing rules exhibited very similar performance while the MMAC and DM market timing rules exhibited the highest returns. Of the four market timing rules, the DM market timing rule exhibited the highest return with the lowest overall risk, indicating that it has the highest predictive ability of the four rules. The findings of this study are useful for investors aiming to generate returns from short-term market fluctuations.
Open Access
An investigation into the use of multiple cryptocurrencies in a diversified portfolio
(2018) Kibble, Alexander; Rajaratnam, Kanshukan
This study investigates the possible diversification benefits of multiple cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin) in a diversified portfolio from the perspective of a South African investor over the period 30 July 2015 to 20 December 2017. Cryptocurrencies are mostly still in their infancy, and reliable information regarding their usefulness as an asset class in a diversified portfolio is scarce to come by. This study adopts a quantitative research methodology which incorporates the following statistical methods: i) mean-semivariance optimisation; ii) Kendall Tau-b correlations; and, iii) autocorrelation function for serial correlations. The JSE All Bond Index is used as bond investment proxy, a combination of the JSE Top 40, Resources Index and Financial-Industrials Index is used as an equity investment proxy, and the LBMA Gold PM is used as a gold investment proxy. The study found that all three cryptocurrencies under investigation yielded risk-return benefits for a diversified portfolio. The alternative cryptocurrencies (Ethereum and Litecoin) exhibited higher levels of downside risk (semideviation) than Bitcoin, but proportionately greater returns. Hence, the addition of these two cryptocurrencies to a portfolio that includes Bitcoin and traditional assets resulted in an expansion of the efficient frontier. Ethereum exhibited slightly lower correlations to Bitcoin than Litecoin, which is most likely attributed to its greater technological differences, but performed worse as a diversifier. All three cryptocurrencies yielded similar low to very low correlations to all traditional assets, including gold - representative of the potential diversification benefits. The autocorrelation function resulted in high positive serial correlations for all three cryptocurrencies, indicative of strong trending behaviour and high volatility.
Open Access
An Investigation of the Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis and Stock Market Automation on Market Efficiency: A Case for the Botswana Stock Exchange
(2018) Ambalal, Ritesh Girishkumar; Pamburai, Hamutyinei Harvey
This study investigates the effects of the 2008 financial crisis and stock market automation on the efficiency of the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE). It makes use of the BSE All Share Index (ALSI) logged returns covering the time period 2005 – 2017. In addition, four distinct tests are employed to test for the change in market efficiency over time: runs test, unit root test, serial correlations test and variance ratio test. The study found resounding evidence to conclude that the 2008 financial crisis and stock market automation had a significant positive effect on the efficiency of the BSE. In addition, the BSE went from being inefficient to weak-form efficient due to the policies implemented by the government of Botswana and financial regulators as a direct reaction to the 2008 financial crisis, plus the continuous improvement of the Automated Trading System (ATS). To the author’s knowledge, this study is the first of its kind to test the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and automation of the trading system on the weak-form market efficiency of the BSE. As a result, this study provides an original and unique testimony on the effects of the 2008 financial crisis and the ATS on the efficiency of the Botswana Stock Exchange. Moreover, it offers an updated position of the BSE’s efficiency status following the recent developments to ensure that relevant legislation and effective and efficient trading systems are in place.
Open Access
Artificial Neural Networks in Stock Return Prediction: Testing Model Specification in a Global Context
(2020) Buxton-Tetteh, Naa Ayorkor; van Rensburg, Paul
This research investigates whether artificial neural networks which make use of firm specific fundamental and technical factors can accurately predict the returns of a sample of several large-cap stocks from various markets across the globe. This study also explores which hidden layer configuration leads to the best network predictive performance. Furthermore, this research identifies which firm-specific factors predominantly influence the predictions made by the artificial neural networks. Five artificial neural networks are designed, trained and tested on a sample of 161 stocks from the Russell 1000 and the S&P International 700 stock indices. The investigation period extends over a 166-month period from January 2001 to October 2014 with a 70:30 split for training and testing subsamples respectively. Eighteen firm-specific factors, based on prior research about the presence of style effects or anomalies on the cross-section of global equity returns, are used as the input variables of the artificial neural networks to forecast one-month forward returns of all the stocks in the sample. The five artificial neural networks investigated in this research differed in hidden layer size. Specifically, the number of hidden neurons examined were three, nine, 13, 18 and 30. All five networks train significantly well, with each network's training error indicating a good model fit. Each network also achieves the desirable information coefficient of 0.1 between its predicted returns and the actual returns in the training sample. It is interestingly discovered that network performance generally improves as the number of hidden neurons in the hidden layer increases until a specific point, after which network performance weakens. In the context of avoiding overfitting, the best-trained network in this research is that with 13 neurons in its hidden layer. This is the primary network used for the out-of sample testing analysis. This network achieves an average prediction error magnitude of approximately 7% and an information coefficient of 0.05 during out-of-sample testing. These results underperform their respective benchmarks moderately. However, further analyses of the network's performance suggest an overall poor out-of-sample predictive ability. This is illustrated by a significant bias and a considerably weak relationship between the network's predicted returns and the actual returns in the testing sample. Global sensitivity analysis reveals that growth style effects, particularly, the capital expenditure ratio, return on equity, sales growth, 12-month percentage change in non-current assets and six-month percentage change in asset turnover were the most persistent factors across all the ANN models. Other significant factors include the 12-month percentage change in monthly volume traded, three-month cumulative prior return and one-month prior return. An unconventional result of this analysis is the relative insignificance of the size and value style effects.
Open Access
Asset allocation in the South African environment
(2014) Mahoney, Kevin; Van Rensburg, Paul
The aim of this paper is to find solutions to the asset allocation problem in the South African environment. These solutions look at a variety of different investor's preferences. These include an investor's age, risk aversion and required levels of returns. To do this, an analysis was done of prior research, so the most up to date mean-variance asset allocation model could be developed. Returns from 10 different indices, over different asset classes were gathered. The indices of importance were found to be: All Bond Index (ALBI), Inflation Linked All Maturities Index (ILB), Salient's Momentum Active Index Fund (MOME), Salient's Value Active Index Fund (VAL), South African Short Term Fixed Interest Index (STEFI) and South African Property Index (SAPY).
Open Access
Comparative performances of capital protection strategies in the South African market
(2015) Du Plessis, Richard Michael; Van Rensburg, Paul
The performance of cash protection strategies implemented in the South African market are investigated in order to establish if investors are able to add value through the use of dynamic portfolio insurance methods. The analysis is performed, using monthly data, from January 1961 to August 2014 using six alternative methodologies including both a Fixed Rate and Rolling Average Stop-Loss approach, a Lock-In approach, a Constant Mix strategy, a Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance ("CPPI") approach and an alternative CPPI approach using a Ratchet mechanism. The results indicate that the use of such cash protection strategies can markedly improve portfolio performance from a risk return perspective compared to a pure diversified investment strategy. Notably, the use of older, simpler trading strategies such as the Stop-Loss and Lock-In approaches at optimum threshold levels can still offer investors higher risk to reward benefits with less commitment required. These strategies, though, lack the flexibility observed with the more recently developed dynamic trading strategies in terms of providing for varying risk appetites.
Open Access
Cross-sectional and time-series momentum on the JSE
(2016) Lockhart-Ross, Simon; Van Rensburg, Paul
This research report documents multiple accounts of past return-based momentum strategies employed on South African-listed equities over the period 2002.02-2015.05. Two cross-sectional momentum approaches-strategies that go long (short) in assets with relative formation period out performance (underperformance) of peer stocks to make the winner (loser) portfolio-and four time-series approaches-strategies that go long (short) in assets with formation period outperformance (underperformance) of a hurdle rate to make the winner (loser) portfolio-are employed in this report. This report finds that both the top decile winner portfolio and top half winner portfolio long-only cross-sectional momentum strategies outperform the benchmark. The 12-month formation period top decile winner achieves the highest long-only excess return of 30.21% per annum, whilst all the loser cross-sectional portfolios constitute a return-reducing funding portfolio when conducting a n investment-neutral winner minus loser approach. Short-term zero investment exposure cross-sectional momentum strategies earn strong negative returns, thus presenting contrarian investment opportunities The two exposure-neutral winner minus loser time-series strategies exhibit similar results to the corresponding cross-sectional strategies, however the variable exposure strategies earn positive returns for every formation period-the 12-month formation period strategy being the best earner (25.92% p.a.). These variable exposure strategies earn time-varying returns from the market due to their non-zero net long market exposure as well as some residual return. This premium is left uncaptured by all investment-neutral app roaches and is a strong cause of the lack of skewness of the variable exposure strategies' returns. All of the examined exposure-neutral strategies exhibit significant leftward skewness due to two incidences of extreme and sustained drawdowns. Both incidences occur as a result of the momentum strategy holding market beta exposure of the opposite sign to the market's drastic turn ; the first: positive exposure and market downturn, the second : negative exposure and positive upturn. These drawdowns are reduced when employing strategies of a more intermediate-term formation period such as the 12-month formation strategy. This report's findings confirm the existence of cross-sectional and time-series momentum in South African-listed equities, as well as the case of equity momentum crashing. Further, it provides evidence for both explained and unexplained variations between the two types of momentum trading, with possibilities for further profitability when combining the two.
Open Access
Does the Nature of the Crisis Matter? A Study of Global Bank Performance during a Credit Crisis, The Debt Crisis &; Health Crisis
(2022) Vermaak, Kelly; Charteris, Ailie
This study examined the global performance of banks during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the sovereign debt crisis, and COVID-19 crisis. An ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression model was used to observe the influence of bank specific, macroeconomic and industry related variables on global bank performance. Buy-hold-abnormal-returns (BHAR) were used as a measure of performance to assess whether the nature of the crisis mattered. A sample period of June 2007 to December 2008, May 2011 to December 2011, and 11 January 2020 to 31 May 2020 were used to represent the GFC, sovereign debt crisis, and COVID-19 crisis, respectively. Higher liquidity, loans, beta, and idiosyncratic volatility as well as a lower credit-loss ratio explained the poor performance of banks during the GFC. The negative spillover effects from the GFC significantly hindered banks' lending capacity and ability to obtain funding from the short-term market during subsequent crises. This meant lending and loans had no influence on performance during the sovereign debt crisis, evident by the insignificant relationship found. Unlike the finding for the GFC and COVID-19 crisis, both beta and idiosyncratic risk were unable to explain performance during the sovereign debt crisis. Similar to the GFC, lower loans, liquidity and credit-loss ratio helped banks achieve better returns, while greater exposure to systematic and idiosyncratic risk led to poorer performance during the COVID-19 crisis. The study further found that banks were more susceptible to the COVID-19 crisis relative to the credit crisis. Furthermore, banks in countries with a high GDP per capita and current account balance witnessed better performance during the COVID-19 crisis. Policy support and the release of Basel III, post the GFC, significantly aided in bank resilience and performance during crisis periods. However, this study found no relationship between bank share price performance and bank capital. During the COVID-19 crisis only, banks with more tangible equity earned greater returns. The policy implications of the findings highlighted how responses from previous crises ensured the financial stability of the financial system and its ability to withstand these shocks. Overall, the difference in findings across each crisis suggested that the nature of the crisis matters. Knowing the nature of the crisis and factors which influenced that particular type of crisis could help inform banks and authorities on when and how to take early precautions in the event of an approaching crisis.
Open Access
The effect of FED's quantitative easing policy on listed companies and sectors in South Africa
(2017) Chacha, Terry; Rajaratnam, Kanshukan
This paper examines the effect of Quantitative Easing (QE) on listed companies and sectors in South Africa. The unconventional monetary policy carried out by the developed markets had spill over effects in emerging market economies. We focus on the policies performed by the United States. Our interest is to find out whether the QE announcements had any impact on the returns of listed companies and sectors in South Africa. An exploratory analysis is done on the macroeconomic and financial indicators in SA to provide grounds for doing the analysis on the listed companies. This analysis shows that the exchange rate and portfolio inflows were impacted by QE. However, other local factors were in play in affecting the exchange rate. The shrinkage in the global economic activity affected the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. The changes in inflation cannot be attributed to QE. Most of the portfolio inflows were in the bond market and since some were directed to the equity market we proceed to check whether stocks and sectors had abnormal returns as a result. Our empirical analysis shows that only three companies had significant Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARs) in the three phases of QE. On the sector front, nine out of the 34 sectors had significant CARs every time QE was announced. A broader classification of these sectors into industries shows that the industries represented are industrials, consumer goods, consumer services and financials. In QE1, the industrials industry and the consumer services industry had negative CARs but in QE2 and QE3, they had positive CARs. The consumer goods industry had positive CARs during the three phases of QE. This research concludes that QE1 had the greatest impact on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and its impact was negative. QE2 had a positive impact on the JSE since most companies and sectors had significant positive CARs. The impact of QE3 on sector abnormal returns was almost neutral. We also provide an investment strategy on the JSE using various indices for the periods following QE2 and QE3. Out of the 14 indices used, the small caps index is given a higher weighting in both portfolios due to its low risk.
Open Access
Examining the relationship between ESG performance and financial performance of firms listed on the JSE
(2021) Ball, Robert; Chamisa, Edward
This study investigates the relationship between the environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance of South African firms and their corresponding financial performance over the period 2012 to 2019. Operating with an ESG-based mindset has become of increasing importance for firms over the past two decades, as a result of increasing regulation as well heightened public scrutiny and pressure. There exists evidence in support of the theory that ESG-conscious firms that practice sustainably tend to financially outperform their peers. This study employs a quantitative research methodology, using variations of panel regression models to investigate the ESG-corporate financial performance (CFP) relationship. Privately held proprietary ESG scores are used as a proxy for ESG performance and financial data is obtained from Bloomberg in order to assess financial performance. The study does not find statistically significant evidence of a relationship between firm ESG performance and financial performance. Contrasting results emerge from the study, with positive relationships and correlation coefficients found between both the ESG performance of firms and their annual stock return, as well as the ESG performance and return on assets (ROA) ratio. A negative relationship and correlation were found to exist between firm ESG performance and their price earnings ratio. These contradicting results lead to a conclusion that no relationship exists between ESG performance and CFP. Significant evidence was however found regarding certain firm characteristics leading to firms having higher ESG performance. Results show that the larger firms with greater financial leverage are higher ESG performers relative to their peers. This may imply that in order for ESG practices to be effective, firms themselves should be of a sufficient size and have access to a large amount of debt to fund relevant activities. It is recommended that further research be performed on the driving forces behind a firm's ESG performance, and the various factors that contribute most towards it, including varying levels of access to debt.
Open Access
The existence and behaviour of style anomalies in the global equity market : a univariate and multivariate analysis
(2014) Baars, Monique; Van Rensburg, Paul
Style anomalies comprise patterns and relationships found in the cross-section of stock returns data, which contradict the existing asset-pricing models. They have proven to be reasonably effective at explaining the return-genera ting process of ordinary shares, and have bro ad uses within modern finance. Empirically, style anomalies are found to have statistically significant rewards in individual markets and s mall market groupings, and are found to be significant at a sector level on a global scale, but have not been tested at a firm level on a global scale. The aim of this study is to explain the cross-section of returns of the 1468 largest global firms by market capitalisation. The worldwide study considers stocks from 53 different countries and 112 industries, and investigates the end of month return forecasting power of 44 different firm-specific attributes over the period August 2003 to August 2013. A univariate analysis is performed through a cross-sectional regression of the forward stock re turns on the firm-specific attributes in a similar method to Fama and MacBeth (1973). A ‘Full Data’ regression is also conducted, and results are presented both before and after a beta-adjustment for market risk. Following this, a multivariate analysis is conducted and a forward stepwise procedure is used to construct a multi-factor model. According to the results of this study, style anomalies exist and have a statistically significant reward at a firm level on a global scale. In a univariate setting there are 25 firm-specific style factors that have a significant return payoff at a 5% level of significance. The specific style groups containing significant firm-specific attributes are the Value, Growth, Momentum, Size and Liquidity, Leverage, and Emerging Market groupings. Ten attributes within these style groupings are found to be robust as they are highly significant both before and after beta-adjustment, and within both a univariate and multivariate setting, namely: EBITDA to Share Price (EBP), Emerging Market (EM), CAPEX to Sales (CXS), Sales to Total Assets (STA), Payout Ratio (PR), 24-month growth in Turnover by Volume (TVO24), Sales to Share Price (SP), 6-month growth in Earnings (E6), 1-month prior return (MOM1), and 3-month prior return (MOM3). This confirms that style effects exist both independently, in a univariate setting, and in a multi-factor model. The results of this study show that the Value and Emerging Market styles have the highest cumulative payoffs over the 10-year period, and the evidence of strong correlation between attributes within specific styles gives further validation to the traditional style groupings. The behaviour of, and relationships between the firm-specific style factors give great insight into the payoffs to investing in different style factors over time, and are key to the construction of a multi-factor model. The fifteen firm-specific style factors that are significant in a multivariate setting form the core of a multi-factor style model, which can potentially be used to explain a degree of unexplained returns, predict returns, give insight into global market behaviour, and price global assets for use within a global portfolio. These firm-specific attributes include: EBITDA to Share Price (EBP), Emerging Market (EM), CAPEX to Sales (CXS), Sales to Total Assets (STA), Payout Ratio (PR), 24-month growth in Turnover by Volume (TVO24), Sales to Share Price (SP), 6-month growth in Earnings (E6), 1-month prior return (MOM1), 3-month prior return (MOM3), the natural log of Enterprise Value (LNEV), Interest Cover before Tax (ITBT), 6-month prior return (MOM6), Price-to-Book value (PTB), and Cash Flow-to-Price (CFP).
Open Access
Factor-based replication of hedge funds using a state space model
(2016) Noakes, Michael A; Van Rensburg, Paul
It has been suggested that the Kalman filter technique may be used to improve the quality of hedge fund replication, compared to existing replication techniques. This study uses the Kalman filter technique, along with three variations of the rolling-window regression technique, to create clones which attempt to replicate the returns of various categories of hedge fund indices. These clones are created over several scenarios and are used to compare the ability of the Kalman filter and rolling-window regression techniques. The clones are constructed using South African specific asset class and investment style factors. This study finds that the Kalman filter does not provide the expected improvement in replication ability over the rolling-window regression, for the hedge fund indices analysed. The competing techniques appear to each be better suited to replicating different hedge fund index strategies and may, therefore, be used in combination. While some of the hedge fund clones offer desirable risk characteristics, they offer lower mean returns and underperform their indices in most periods. As such, the hedge fund clones constructed in this study require further refinement and are not yet equipped for use in practice.
Open Access
The Inflation hedging properties of South African asset classes
(2017) Stefan, Donovan; Van Rensburg, Paul
Inflation poses a serious threat to the purchasing power of assets over time. This study examines the short and long-term inflation hedging capabilities of South African equities, bonds, listed property and cash - and compares them to foreign substitutes. The aim of this study is to investigate the inflation hedging capabilities of four primary asset classes in both domestic and foreign contexts: equities, bonds, listed real estate and cash. More specifically, this study evaluates how well each asset class performs with respect to South African inflation, and through a comparative analysis of the results, identifies which asset class may be regarded as the superior inflation hedge. Moreover, the inflation hedging capabilities of domestic assets are compared to foreign asset classes in an attempt to provide investors with valuable insights as to whether domestic and/or foreign asset classes offer better protection against the harmful effects of inflation. Finally, the study demonstrates how well these asset classes perform with respect to inflation over short and long-run horizons. The data used in this study comprises total return indices which portray a more accurate picture of an investor's return. The period 1999-2015 forms the range within which data for all domestic and foreign asset classes are available, and thus constitutes the sample period used in this study's comparative analysis. Excluding domestic bonds on the basis of data availability, the comparative analysis of domestic asset classes, dates back to 1965. This study makes use of the following tests: Pearson correlations, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron, Granger causality, OLS regression, VAR and Impulse Response Functions, and Cointegration. This study finds evidence in support of a negative contemporaneous and lagged relationship between domestic and foreign equities, and South African inflation in the short-run (also widely recognised as the "inverted Fisher effect"). Domestic bonds, property and cash were found to provide a partial inflation hedge in the short-run. Cash was found to exhibit the strongest hedging properties. On the other hand, foreign bonds, property and cash were found to be anti-inflation hedges with contemporaneous and lagged inflation. However, although foreign asset classes do not offer protection against contemporaneously or lagged inflation, they do provide a leading return prior to inflation manifesting. Consequently, if profits are taken early enough it can provide investors with an inflation hedge. This is important for local investors to be aware of when deciding to invest in foreign asset classes with the goal of hedging against inflation. Utilising the Engle- Granger Cointegration test, the findings of this study suggest that both domestic and foreign asset classes do not display a long-term relationship with inflation. This suggests that both domestic and foreign asset classes are anti-inflation hedges, since neither covary positively with inflation in the long-run. One major implication of these findings is that investment firms, whose benchmarks' contain consumer price indices (CPI), rely on the fact that the average returns of various asset classes exceed the average inflation rate in the long run, rather than being good inflation hedges (viz. co-movement with inflation).
Open Access
An investigation of empirical properties of South African bonds
(2017) Mate, Janet; Rajaratnam, Kanshukan; Majoni, Akios
This study investigates empirical properties of South African bonds over the period 2000 to 2016. In particular, it investigates i) mean reversion in bond returns; ii) the correlation between bond returns and the inflation rate; and, iii) the correlation between bond returns and equity returns. An understanding of bond return dynamics would allow bond investors to assess which bond properties work in their favour. Thus this study seeks to guide bond investors, and to add to the knowledge of the bond market concerning bond return dynamics in an emerging market economy. The study employs a quantitative research methodology, using a nonexperimental research design. The investigation is carried out at the macroeconomic level using the JSE All Bond Indices as the bond investment proxy, the FTSE/JSE All Share Total Return Index as the equity investment proxy, and the Consumer Price Index as the proxy used to measure the inflation rate. The sample autocorrelation function is used to test for mean reversion and the Kendall Tau-b correlation test is used for the correlation investigations. This study does not find statistically significant evidence of long term mean reversion but finds statistically significant evidence of short-term mean reverting behaviour in the period 2013-2016. Furthermore, this study reveals that short-term serial correlations vary and are sensitive to political developments in the economy. The correlation analysis between bond returns and the inflation rate and bond returns and stock returns did not return statistically significant correlation values. However, further analysis provided evidence against the use of bonds as an inflation hedge and of diversification benefits to be reaped from combining bonds and stocks together in a portfolio.
Open Access
Long term portfolio construction
(2016) Musilika, Oskar; Van Rensburg, Paul
Financial analyst commonly advice individual investors with a long investment horizon to invest in portfolios comprised more of equities. This advice is usually coupled with the practice of shifting the investor's portfolio from risky asset holdings towards bonds and cash as the investor's target date gets closer. This view rests on the notion that equities tend to be less risky over the long horizon and that stock returns exhibit mean reversion overtime. The purpose of this dissertation is to find the optimal asset allocation over various investment horizons; and investigate how the optimal asset allocation changes over the long investment horizon. The study uses data from South Africa's financial market covering the period December 2001 to December 2014. The mean - variance framework generated the optimal asset allocation over 12 investment horizons. The study finds that, over 90 percent of the portfolio should be vested into fixed - income South African bonds, with little over 5 percent equities allocation, over longer investment periods. In addition, the study found evidence of time diversification on the JSE all shares index and the presence of mean reversion properties for the all s hares index. With these conclusions, implications and recommendations are suggested
Open Access
Momentum trading strategy on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
(2014) Eloff, F N; Van Rensburg, Paul
This research report documents an example of evidence of investor overreaction in the marketplace, with overreaction to short-term information found to be exploitable via price corrections in order to generate market-beating returns. An efficient market should render any consistent abnormal returns unattainable. Hence any technical analysis allowing an investor to obtain such returns would indicate a degree of market inefficiency. Three signal generation strategies are employed to test for momentum and price corrections in the market, namely using a stock's price and moving average, ranking stocks based on prior returns, and allocating stocks as overbought and oversold. The strategies are employed on data comprising the top 60 stocks on the JSE as at August 2012. The period tested runs from January 1998 to August 2012. Signal generation by means of price and moving average encompasses trade signals being generated by a stock's price moving above or below a variable moving average. Returns to this strategy tend to be maximized when employing a short-term (20-day) moving average, with an annualised above market return of 14,9 achievable. Using the returns of a stock in an immediately preceding formation period as a ranking criterion to classify stocks into a portfolio is found to be a superior method to generate trading signals. A portfolio of the best performing stocks in a preceding period ("the winner portfolio") is found to be able to outperform the market. Given a minimum formation period of 50 days, price continuation is achieved after holding the portfolio for at least 30 days, with annualized market excess returns greater than 10 achieved at longer formation and holding periods. A portfolio of the worst performing stocks in the same period ("the loser portfolio") is able to outperform the winner portfolio, and is capable of achieving returns of 20 in excess of the market, given a formation period as low as 10 days, while closing the investment position after no more than 10 days.