Browsing by Subject "HIV epidemiology"
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- ItemOpen AccessAdjusting mortality for loss to follow-up: analysis of five ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa(Public Library of Science, 2010) Brinkhof, Martin W G; Spycher, Ben D; Yiannoutsos, Constantin; Weigel, Ralf; Wood, Robin; Messou, Eugène; Boulle, Andrew; Egger, Matthias; Sterne, Jonathan A C; (IeDEA), for the International epidemiological Database to Evaluate AIDSBACKGROUND: Evaluation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is difficult because many patients are lost to follow-up. Outcomes in these patients are generally unknown but studies tracing patients have shown mortality to be high. We adjusted programme-level mortality in the first year of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up. Methods and FINDINGS: Treatment-naïve patients starting combination ART in five programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi and South Africa were eligible. Patients whose last visit was at least nine months before the closure of the database were considered lost to follow-up. We filled missing survival times in these patients by multiple imputation, using estimates of mortality from studies that traced patients lost to follow-up. Data were analyzed using Weibull models, adjusting for age, sex, ART regimen, CD4 cell count, clinical stage and treatment programme. A total of 15,915 HIV-infected patients (median CD4 cell count 110 cells/µL, median age 35 years, 68% female) were included; 1,001 (6.3%) were known to have died and 1,285 (14.3%) were lost to follow-up in the first year of ART. Crude estimates of mortality at one year ranged from 5.7% (95% CI 4.9-6.5%) to 10.9% (9.6-12.4%) across the five programmes. Estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing patients lost to follow-up with those remaining in care ranged from 6 to 23. Adjusted estimates based on these hazard ratios ranged from 10.2% (8.9-11.6%) to 16.9% (15.0-19.1%), with relative increases in mortality ranging from 27% to 73% across programmes. CONCLUSIONS: Naïve survival analysis ignoring excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up may greatly underestimate overall mortality, and bias ART programme evaluations. Adjusted mortality estimates can be obtained based on excess mortality rates in patients lost to follow-up.
- ItemOpen AccessAntiretroviral therapy for prevention of tuberculosis in adults with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis(Public Library of Science, 2012) Suthar, Amitabh B; Lawn, Stephen D; Del Amo, Julia; Getahun, Haileyesus; Dye, Christopher; Sculier, Delphine; Sterling, Timothy R; Chaisson, Richard E; Williams, Brian G; Harries, Anthony DIn a systematic review and meta-analysis, Amitabh Suthar and colleagues investigate the association between antiretroviral therapy and the reduction in the incidence of tuberculosis in adults with HIV infection.
- ItemOpen AccessBurden of new and recurrent tuberculosis in a major South African city stratified by age and HIV-status(Public Library of Science, 2011) Wood, Robin; Lawn, Stephen D; Caldwell, Judy; Kaplan, Richard; Middelkoop, Keren; Bekker, Linda-GailAim: To describe the burden of tuberculosis (TB) in Cape Town by calculating TB incidence rates stratified by age and HIV-status, assessing the contribution of retreatment disease and estimating the cumulative lifetime TB risk in HIV-negative individuals. METHODS: Details of TB cases were abstracted from the 2009 electronic TB register. Population denominators were estimated from census data and actuarial estimates of HIV prevalence, allowing calculation of age-specific and HIV-stratified TB notification rates. RESULTS: The 2009 mid-year population was 3,443,010 (3,241,508 HIV-negative and 201,502 HIV-positive individuals). There were 29,478 newly notified TB cases of which 56% were laboratory confirmed. HIV status was recorded for 87% of cases and of those with known HIV-status 49% were HIV-negative and 51% were positive. Discrete peaks in the incidence of non-HIV-associated TB occurred at three ages: 511/100,000 at 0-4 years of age, 553/100,000 at 20-24 years and 628/100,000 at 45-49 years with 1.5%, 19% and 45% being due to retreatment TB, respectively. Only 15.5% of recurrent cases had a history of TB treatment failure or default. The cumulative lifetime risks in the HIV-negative population of all new TB episodes and new smear-positive TB episodes were 24% and 12%, respectively; the lifetime risk of retreatment disease was 9%. The HIV-positive notification rate was 6,567/100,000 (HIV-associated TB rate ratio = 17). Although retreatment cases comprised 30% of the HIV-associated TB burden, 88% of these patients had no history of prior treatment failure or default. CONCLUSIONS: The annual burden of TB in this city is huge. TB in the HIV-negative population contributed almost half of the overall disease burden and cumulative lifetime risks were similar to those reported in the pre-chemotherapy era. Retreatment TB contributed significantly to both HIV-associated and non-HIV-associated TB but infrequently followed prior inadequate treatment. This likely reflects ongoing TB transmission to both HIV-negative and positive individuals.
- ItemOpen AccessA century of tuberculosis epidemiology in the northern and southern hemisphere: the differential impact of control interventions(Public Library of Science, 2015) Hermans, Sabine; Jr, C Robert Horsburgh; Wood, RobinBACKGROUND: Cape Town has one of the highest TB burdens of any city in the world. In 1900 the City of Cape Town, New York City and London had high mortality of tuberculosis (TB). Throughout the 20th century contemporaneous public health measures including screening, diagnosis and treatment were implemented in all three settings. Mandatory notification of TB and vital status enabled comparison of disease burden trajectories. METHODS: TB mortality, notification and case fatality rates were calculated from 1912 to 2012 using annual TB notifications, TB death certifications and population estimates. Notification rates were stratified by age and in Cape Town by HIV status (from 2009 onwards). RESULTS: Pre-chemotherapy, TB mortality and notification rates declined steadily in New York and London but remained high in Cape Town. Following introduction of combination chemotherapy, mean annual case fatality dropped from 45-60% to below 10% in all three settings. Mortality and notification rates subsequently declined, although Cape Town notifications did not decline as far as those in New York or London and returned to pre-chemotherapy levels by 1980. The proportional contribution of childhood TB diminished in New York and London but remained high in Cape Town. The advent of the Cape Town HIV-epidemic in the 1990s was associated with a further two-fold increase in incidence. In 2012, notification rates among HIV-negatives remained at pre-chemotherapy levels. CONCLUSIONS: TB control was achieved in New York and London but failed in Cape Town. The TB disease burden trajectories started diverging before the availability of combination chemotherapy in 1952 and further diverged following the HIV epidemic in 1990. Chemotherapy impacted case fatality but not transmission, evidenced by on-going high childhood TB rates. Currently endemic TB results from high on-going transmission, which has been exacerbated by the HIV epidemic. TB control will require reducing transmission, which is inexorably linked to prevailing socio-economic factors.
- ItemOpen AccessThe clinical and economic impact of point-of-care CD4 testing in Mozambique and other resource-limited settings: a cost-effectiveness analysis(Public Library of Science, 2014) Hyle, Emily P; Jani, Ilesh V; Lehe, Jonathan; Su, Amanda E; Wood, Robin; Quevedo, Jorge; Losina, Elena; Bassett, Ingrid V; Pei, Pamela P; Paltiel, A DavidEmily Hyle and colleagues conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to estimate the clinical and economic impact of point-of-care CD4 testing compared to laboratory-based tests in Mozambique. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
- ItemOpen AccessCombination HIV prevention among MSM in South Africa: results from agent-based modeling(Public Library of Science, 2014) Brookmeyer, Ron; Boren, David; Baral, Stefan D; Bekker, Linda- Gail; Phaswana-Mafuya, Nancy; Beyrer, Chris; Sullivan, Patrick SHIV prevention trials have demonstrated the effectiveness of a number of behavioral and biomedical interventions. HIV prevention packages are combinations of interventions and offer potential to significantly increase the effectiveness of any single intervention. Estimates of the effectiveness of prevention packages are important for guiding the development of prevention strategies and for characterizing effect sizes before embarking on large scale trials. Unfortunately, most research to date has focused on testing single interventions rather than HIV prevention packages. Here we report the results from agent-based modeling of the effectiveness of HIV prevention packages for men who have sex with men (MSM) in South Africa. We consider packages consisting of four components: antiretroviral therapy for HIV infected persons with CD4 count <350; PrEP for high risk uninfected persons; behavioral interventions to reduce rates of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI); and campaigns to increase HIV testing. We considered 163 HIV prevention packages corresponding to different intensity levels of the four components. We performed 2252 simulation runs of our agent-based model to evaluate those packages. We found that a four component package consisting of a 15% reduction in the rate of UAI, 50% PrEP coverage of high risk uninfected persons, 50% reduction in persons who never test for HIV, and 50% ART coverage over and above persons already receiving ART at baseline, could prevent 33.9% of infections over 5 years (95% confidence interval, 31.5, 36.3). The package components with the largest incremental prevention effects were UAI reduction and PrEP coverage. The impact of increased HIV testing was magnified in the presence of PrEP. We find that HIV prevention packages that include both behavioral and biomedical components can in combination prevent significant numbers of infections with levels of coverage, acceptance and adherence that are potentially achievable among MSM in South Africa.
- ItemOpen AccessA comparison of South African national HIV incidence estimates: A critical appraisal of different methods(Public Library of Science, 2015) Rehle, Thomas; Johnson, Leigh; Hallett, Timothy; Mahy, Mary; Kim, Andrea; Odido, Helen; Onoya, Dorina; Jooste, Sean; Shisana, Olive; Puren, AdrianBACKGROUND: The interpretation of HIV prevalence trends is increasingly difficult as antiretroviral treatment programs expand. Reliable HIV incidence estimates are critical to monitoring transmission trends and guiding an effective national response to the epidemic. Methods and FINDINGS: We used a range of methods to estimate HIV incidence in South Africa: (i) an incidence testing algorithm applying the Limiting-Antigen Avidity Assay (LAg-Avidity EIA) in combination with antiretroviral drug and HIV viral load testing; (ii) a modelling technique based on the synthetic cohort principle; and (iii) two dynamic mathematical models, the EPP/Spectrum model package and the Thembisa model. Overall, the different incidence estimation methods were in broad agreement on HIV incidence estimates among persons aged 15-49 years in 2012. The assay-based method produced slightly higher estimates of incidence, 1.72% (95% CI 1.38 - 2.06), compared with the mathematical models, 1.47% (95% CI 1.23 - 1.72) in Thembisa and 1.52% (95% CI 1.43 - 1.62) in EPP/Spectrum, and slightly lower estimates of incidence compared to the synthetic cohort, 1.9% (95% CI 0.8 - 3.1) over the period from 2008 to 2012. Among youth aged 15-24 years, a declining trend in HIV incidence was estimated by all three mathematical estimation methods. CONCLUSIONS: The multi-method comparison showed similar levels and trends in HIV incidence and validated the estimates provided by the assay-based incidence testing algorithm. Our results confirm that South Africa is the country with the largest number of new HIV infections in the world, with about 1 000 new infections occurring each day among adults aged 15-49 years in 2012.
- ItemOpen AccessCorrecting mortality for loss to follow-up: a nomogram applied to antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa(Public Library of Science, 2011) Egger, Matthias; Spycher, Ben D; Sidle, John; Weigel, Ralf; Geng, Elvin H; Fox, Matthew P; MacPhail, Patrick; van Cutsem, Gilles; Messou, Eugène; Wood, RobinBackground: The World Health Organization estimates that in sub-Saharan Africa about 4 million HIV-infected patients had started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2008. Loss of patients to follow-up and care is an important problem for treatment programmes in this region. As mortality is high in these patients compared to patients remaining in care, ART programmes with high rates of loss to follow-up may substantially underestimate mortality of all patients starting ART. Methods and Findings: We developed a nomogram to correct mortality estimates for loss to follow-up, based on the fact that mortality of all patients starting ART in a treatment programme is a weighted average of mortality among patients lost to follow-up and patients remaining in care. The nomogram gives a correction factor based on the percentage of patients lost to follow-up at a given point in time, and the estimated ratio of mortality between patients lost and not lost to follow-up. The mortality observed among patients retained in care is then multiplied by the correction factor to obtain an estimate of programme-level mortality that takes all deaths into account. A web calculator directly calculates the corrected, programme-level mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We applied the method to 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients retained in care had a mortality at 1 year of 1.4% to 12.0%; loss to follow-up ranged from 2.8% to 28.7%; and the correction factor from 1.2 to 8.0. The absolute difference between uncorrected and corrected mortality at 1 year ranged from 1.6% to 9.8%, and was above 5% in four programmes. The largest difference in mortality was in a programme with 28.7% of patients lost to follow-up at 1 year. Conclusions: The amount of bias in mortality estimates can be large in ART programmes with substantial loss to follow-up. Programmes should routinely report mortality among patients retained in care and the proportion of patients lost. A simple nomogram can then be used to estimate mortality among all patients who started ART, for a range of plausible mortality rates among patients lost to follow-up.
- ItemOpen AccessCreating an African HIV clinical research and prevention trials network: HIV prevalence, incidence and transmission(Public Library of Science, 2015) Kamali, Anatoli; Price, Matt A; Lakhi, Shabir; Karita, Etienne; Inambao, Mubiana; Sanders, Eduard J; Anzala, Omu; Latka, Mary H; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Kaleebu, PontianoHIV epidemiology informs prevention trial design and program planning. Nine clinical research centers (CRC) in sub-Saharan Africa conducted HIV observational epidemiology studies in populations at risk for HIV infection as part of an HIV prevention and vaccine trial network. Annual HIV incidence ranged from below 2% to above 10% and varied by CRC and risk group, with rates above 5% observed in Zambian men in an HIV-discordant relationship, Ugandan men from Lake Victoria fishing communities, men who have sex with men, and several cohorts of women. HIV incidence tended to fall after the first three months in the study and over calendar time. Among suspected transmission pairs, 28% of HIV infections were not from the reported partner. Volunteers with high incidence were successfully identified and enrolled into large scale cohort studies. Over a quarter of new cases in couples acquired infection from persons other than the suspected transmitting partner.
- ItemOpen AccessEarly and late direct costs in a Southern African antiretroviral treatment programme: a retrospective cohort analysis(Public Library of Science, 2009) Leisegang, Rory; Cleary, Susan; Hislop, Michael; Davidse, Alistair; Regensberg, Leon; Little, Francesca; Maartens, GaryGary Maartens and colleagues describe the direct heath care costs and identify the drivers of cost over time in an HIV managed care program in Southern Africa.
- ItemOpen AccessThe effect of complete integration of HIV and TB services on time to initiation of antiretroviral therapy: a before-after study(Public Library of Science, 2012) Kerschberger, Bernhard; Hilderbrand, Katherine; Boulle, Andrew M; Coetzee, David; Goemaere, Eric; Azevedo, Virginia De; Cutsem, Gilles VanBACKGROUND: Studies have shown that early ART initiation in TB/HIV co-infected patients lowers mortality. One way to implement earlier ART commencement could be through integration of TB and HIV services, a more efficient model of care than separate, vertical programs. We present a model of full TB/HIV integration and estimate its effect on time to initiation of ART. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We retrospectively reviewed TB registers and clinical notes of 209 TB/HIV co-infected adults with a CD4 count <250 cells/µl and registered for TB treatment at one primary care clinic in a South African township between June 2008 and May 2009. Using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard analysis, we compared time between initiation of TB treatment and ART for the periods before and after full, "one-stop shop" integration of TB and HIV services (in December 2009). Potential confounders were determined a priori through directed acyclic graphs. Robustness of assumptions was investigated by sensitivity analyses. The analysis included 188 patients (100 pre- and 88 post-integration), yielding 56 person-years of observation. Baseline characteristics of the two groups were similar. Median time to ART initiation decreased from 147 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 85-188) before integration of services to 75 days (95% CI 52-119) post-integration. In adjusted analyses, patients attending the clinic post-integration were 1.60 times (95% CI 1.11-2.29) more likely to have started ART relative to the pre-integration period. Sensitivity analyses supported these findings. Conclusions/Significance Full TB/HIV care integration is feasible and led to a 60% increased chance of co-infected patients starting ART, while reducing time to ART initiation by an average of 72 days. Although these estimates should be confirmed through larger studies, they suggest that scale-up of full TB/HIV service integration in high TB/HIV prevalence settings may shorten time to ART initiation, which might reduce excess mortality and morbidity.
- ItemOpen AccessEpidemic levels of drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR and XDR-TB) in a high HIV prevalence setting in Khayelitsha, South Africa(Public Library of Science, 2010) Cox, Helen S; McDermid, Cheryl; Azevedo, Virginia; Muller, Odelia; Coetzee, David; Simpson, John; Barnard, Marinus; Coetzee, Gerrit; van Cutsem, Gilles; Goemaere, EricBACKGROUND: Although multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is emerging as a significant threat to tuberculosis control in high HIV prevalence countries such as South Africa, limited data is available on the burden of drug resistant tuberculosis and any association with HIV in such settings. We conducted a community-based representative survey to assess the MDR-TB burden in Khayelitsha, an urban township in South Africa with high HIV and TB prevalence. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among adult clinic attendees suspected for pulmonary tuberculosis in two large primary care clinics, together constituting 50% of the tuberculosis burden in Khayelitsha. Drug susceptibility testing (DST) for isoniazid and rifampicin was conducted using a line probe assay on positive sputum cultures, and with culture-based DST for first and second-line drugs. Between May and November 2008, culture positive pulmonary tuberculosis was diagnosed in 271 new and 264 previously treated tuberculosis suspects (sample enriched with previously treated cases). Among those with known HIV status, 55% and 71% were HIV infected respectively. MDR-TB was diagnosed in 3.3% and 7.7% of new and previously treated cases. These figures equate to an estimated case notification rate for MDR-TB of 51/100,000/year, with new cases constituting 55% of the estimated MDR-TB burden. HIV infection was not significantly associated with rifampicin resistance in multivariate analyses. Conclusions/Significance There is an extremely high burden of MDR-TB in this setting, most likely representing ongoing transmission. These data highlight the need to diagnose drug resistance among all TB cases, and for innovative models of case detection and treatment for MDR-TB, in order to interrupt transmission and control this emerging epidemic.
- ItemOpen AccessEstablishing a cohort at high risk of HIV infection in South Africa: challenges and experiences of the CAPRISA 002 acute infection study(Public Library of Science, 2008) van Loggerenberg, Francois; Mlisana, Koleka; Williamson, Carolyn; Auld, Sara C; Morris, Lynn; Gray, Clive M; Karim, Quarraisha Abdool; Grobler, Anneke; Barnabas, Nomampondo; Iriogbe, ItuaObjectives To describe the baseline demographic data, clinical characteristics and HIV-incidence rates of a cohort at high risk for HIV infection in South Africa as well as the challenges experienced in establishing and maintaining the cohort. Methodology/Principle FINDINGS: Between August 2004 and May 2005 a cohort of HIV-uninfected women was established for the CAPRISA 002 Acute Infection Study, a natural history study of HIV-1 subtype C infection. Volunteers were identified through peer-outreach. The cohort was followed monthly to determine HIV infection rates and clinical presentation of early HIV infection. Risk reduction counselling and male and female condoms were provided. After screening 775 individuals, a cohort of 245 uninfected high-risk women was established. HIV-prevalence at screening was 59.6% (95% CI: 55.9% to 62.8%) posing a challenge in accruing HIV-uninfected women. The majority of women (78.8%) were self-identified as sex-workers with a median of 2 clients per day. Most women (95%) reported more than one casual sexual partner in the previous 3 months (excluding clients) and 58.8% reported condom use in their last sexual encounter. Based on laboratory testing, 62.0% had a sexually transmitted infection at baseline. During 390 person-years of follow-up, 28 infections occurred yielding seroincidence rate of 7.2 (95% CI: 4.5 to 9.8) per 100 person-years. Despite the high mobility of this sex worker cohort retention rate after 2 years was 86.1%. High co-morbidity created challenges for ancillary care provision, both in terms of human and financial resources. Conclusions/Significance Challenges experienced were high baseline HIV-prevalence, lower than anticipated HIV-incidence and difficulties retaining participants. Despite challenges, we have successfully accrued this cohort of HIV-uninfected women with favourable retention, enabling us to study the natural history of HIV-1 during acute HIV-infection. Our experiences provide lessons for others establishing similar cohorts, which will be key for advancing the vaccine and prevention research agenda in resource-constrained settings.
- ItemOpen AccessEstimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study(2017) Johnson, Leigh F; May, Margaret T; Cornell, Morna; Boulle, Andrew; Egger, Matthias; Davies, Mary-AnnSubstantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART.
- ItemOpen AccessFactors associated with retention to care in an HIV clinic in Gabon, Central Africa(Public Library of Science, 2015) Janssen, Saskia; Wieten, Rosanne Willemijn; Stolp, Sebastiaan; Cremers, Anne Lia; Rossatanga, Elie Gide; Klipstein-Grobusch, Kerstin; Belard, Sabine; Grobusch, Martin PeterBACKGROUND: Retention to HIV care is vital for patients' survival, to prevent onward transmission and emergence of drug resistance. Travelling to receive care might influence adherence. Data on the functioning of and retention to HIV care in the Central African region are limited. METHODS: This retrospective study reports outcomes and factors associated with retention to HIV care at a primary HIV clinic in Lambaréné, Gabon. Adult patients who presented to this clinic between January 2010 and January 2012 were included. Outcomes were retention in care (defined as documented show-up for clinical visits, regardless of delay) or LTFU (defined as a patient not retained in care; on ART or ART naïve, not returning to care during the study period with a patient delay for scheduled visits of more than 6 months), and mortality. Cox regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with respective outcomes. Qualitative data on reasons for LTFU were obtained from focus-group discussions. RESULTS: Of 223 patients included, 67.3% were female. The mean age was 40.5 (standard deviation 11.4) years and the median CD4 count 275 (interquartile range 100.5-449.5) cells/μL. In total, 34.1% were lost to follow up and 8.1% died. Documented tuberculosis was associated with increased risk of being LTFU (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.80, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.05-3.11, P = 0.03), whereas early starting anti-retroviral therapy (ART) was associated with a decreased risk of LTFU (aHR 0.43, 95%CI 0.24-0.76, P = 0.004), as was confirmed by qualitative data. CONCLUSIONS: Retention to HIV care in a primary clinic in Gabon is relatively poor and interventions to address this should be prioritized in the HIV program. Early initiation of ART might improve retention in care.
- ItemOpen AccessHigh prevalence of self-reported undiagnosed HIV despite high coverage of HIV testing: a cross-sectional population based sero-survey in South Africa(Public Library of Science, 2011) Kranzer, Katharina; van Schaik, Nienke; Karmue, Unice; Middelkoop, Keren; Sebastian, Elaine; Lawn, Stephen D; Wood, Robin; Bekker, Linda-GailObjectives: To measure HIV prevalence and uptake of HIV counseling and testing (HCT) in a peri-urban South African community. To assess predictors for previous HIV testing and the association between the yield of previously undiagnosed HIV and time of last negative HIV test. METHODS: A random sample of 10% of the adult population (≥15 years) were invited to attend a mobile HCT service. Study procedures included a questionnaire, HIV testing and CD4 counts. Predictors for previous testing were determined using a binominal model. RESULTS: 1,144 (88.0%) of 1,300 randomly selected individuals participated in the study. 71.0% (68.3-73.6) had previously had an HIV test and 37.5% (34.6-40.5) had tested in the past 12 months. Men, migrants and older (>35 years) and younger (<20 years) individuals were less likely to have had a previous HIV test. Overall HIV prevalence was 22.7 (20.3-25.3) with peak prevalence of 41.8% (35.8-47.8) in women aged 25.1-35 years and 37.5% (26.7-48.3) in men aged 25.1-45 years. Prevalence of previously undiagnosed HIV was 10.3% (8.5-12.1) overall and 4.5% (2.3-6.6), 8.0% (CI 3.9-12.0) and 20.0% (13.2-26.8) in individuals who had their most recent HIV test within 1, 1-2 and more than 2 years prior to the survey. CONCLUSION: The high burden of undiagnosed HIV in individuals who had recently tested underscores the importance of frequent repeat testing at least annually. The high prevalence of previously undiagnosed HIV in individuals reporting a negative test in the 12 months preceding the survey indicates a very high incidence. Innovative prevention strategies are needed.
- ItemOpen AccessHIV infection is associated with a lower incidence of constriction in presumed tuberculous pericarditis: a prospective observational study(Public Library of Science, 2008) Ntsekhe, Mpiko; Wiysonge, Charles S; Gumedze, Freedom; Maartens, Gary; Commerford, Patrick J; Volmink, Jimmy A; Mayosi, Bongani MBACKGROUND: Pericardial constriction is a serious complication of tuberculous pericardial effusion that occurs in up to a quarter of patients despite anti-tuberculosis chemotherapy. The impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection on the incidence of constrictive pericarditis following tuberculous pericardial effusion is unknown. Methods and RESULTS: We conducted a prospective observational study to determine the association between HIV infection and the incidence of constrictive pericarditis among 185 patients (median age 33 years) with suspected tuberculous pericardial effusion. These patients were recruited consecutively between March and October 2004 on commencement of anti-tuberculosis treatment, from 15 hospitals in Cameroon, Nigeria and South Africa. Surviving patients (N = 119) were assessed for clinical evidence of constrictive pericarditis at 3 and 6 months of follow-up. Clinical features of HIV infection were present in 42 (35.2%) of the 119 patients at enrolment into the study. 66 of the 119 (56.9%) patients consented to HIV testing at enrolment. During the 6 months of follow-up, a clinical diagnosis of constrictive pericarditis was made in 13 of the 119 patients (10.9 %, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.9-18%). Patients with clinical features of HIV infection appear less likely to develop constriction than those without (4.8% versus 14.3%; P = 0.08). None of the 33 HIV seropositive patients developed constriction, but 8 (24.2%, 95%CI 11.1-42.3%) of the 33 HIV seronegative patients did (P = 0.005). In a multivariate logistic regression model adjusting simultaneously for several baseline characteristics, only clinical signs of HIV infection were significantly associated with a lower risk of constriction (odd ratio 0.14, 95% CI 0.02-0.87, P = 0.035). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that HIV infection is associated with a lower incidence of pericardial constriction in patients with presumed tuberculous pericarditis.
- ItemOpen AccessHIV prevalence by race co-varies closely with concurrency and number of sex partners in South Africa(Public Library of Science, 2013) Kenyon, Chris; Buyze, Jozefien; Colebunders, RobertBACKGROUND: HIV prevalence differs by more than an order of magnitude between South Africa's racial groups. Comparing the sexual behaviors and other risk factors for HIV transmission between the different races may shed light on the determinants of South Africa's generalized HIV epidemic. METHODS: Five nationally representative and one city-representative population-based surveys of sexual behavior were used to assess the extent to which various risk factors co-varied with HIV prevalence by race in South Africa. RESULTS: In 2004, the prevalence of HIV was 0.5%, 1%, 3.2% and 19.9% in 15-49 year old whites, Indians, coloureds and blacks respectively. The risk factors which co-varied with HIV prevalence by race in the six surveys were age of sexual debut (in five out of five surveys for men and three out of six surveys for women), age gap (zero surveys in men and three in women), mean number of sex partners in the previous year (five surveys in men and three in women) and concurrent partnerships (five surveys in men and one in women). Condom usage and circumcision were both more prevalent in the high HIV prevalence groups. The reported prevalence of concurrency was 6 to 17 times higher in the black as opposed to the white men in the five surveys. CONCLUSIONS: The differences in sexual behavior in general, and the prevalence of concurrency and the number of sexual partners in particular, offer a plausible and parsimonious cause to explain a part of the differing prevalences of HIV between South Africa's racial groups.
- ItemOpen AccessHormonal contraception and the risk of HIV acquisition: an individual participant data meta-analysis(Public Library of Science, 2015) Morrison, Charles S; Chen, Pai-Lien; Kwok, Cynthia; Baeten, Jared M; Brown, Joelle; Crook, Angela M; Van Damme, Lut; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Francis, Suzanna C; Friedland, Barbara AIn a meta-analysis of individual participant data, Charles Morrison and colleagues explore the association between hormonal contraception use and risk of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa.
- ItemMetadata onlyInfluence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus and other risk factors on tuberculosis(2015) Mahtab, Sana; Coetzee, DavidIntroduction: Tuberculosis (TB) notification in South Africa has increased six fold over the last two decades mainly because of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic. Globally, it was estimated that 73% of the TB cases were co-infected with HIV with more than 25% of this global co-infection burden being in South Africa alone. In 2012, globally 1.3 million deaths occurred due to TB; moreover 0.3 million were HIV-associated TB death. In 2010 TB was the leading cause of natural deaths in the population aged 15 to 24 years accounting for 14% of the total deaths in South Africa. In 2013 the proportion of patients with TB who were co-infected with HIV was extremely high at 62%.The outcome of co-infected patients was poorer than the outcome of HIV negative TB patients. However, there is little information available on the risk factors associated with TB treatment outcomes and the influence of co-infection. Method: A cross sectional study analysed Electronic TB Register (ETR.net) data from the Metro East Geographic Service Area (GSA) of the Cape Town Metro district. The dataset included adult patients aged 15 years or more, who initiated TB treatment between 1st July 2011 and 30th June 2012. In the descriptive analysis we analysed death separately but for the regression we merged death with unfavourable treatment outcome. Relative risks were used for measures of association. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using a generalized linear regression model. Statistically significant variables in the univariate analysis were included in the multivariate analysis. Findings: TB case notification in Eastern GSA was 922 per 100 000 population. Of the 12672 TB patients registered, 50% were co-infected with HIV. The incidence of death in co-infected was 5% versus 3% in uninfected, treatment success 67% versus 73% and unfavourable treatment outcome 28% versus 24%. The Khayelitsha sub-district had the highest proportion of the TB burden (37%) and of co-infection (65%). Fourteen percent of patients had extra-pulmonary TB (EPTB), 66% of whom were co-infected with HIV. In the multivariate analysis HIV (RR 1.2), retreatment (RR 1.4) and sputum smear microscopy not done (RR 1.4) were significantly associated with unfavourable treatment outcome. The sub districts Eastern (RR 0.9) and Northern (RR 0.7) were less likely to develop unfavourable outcome compared to Khayelitsha. In the stratified analysis, retreatment (RR 1.3) and smear not done (RR 1.3) were significant risk factors for an unfavourable treatment outcome in co-infected patients. Amongst HIV negative patients retreatment (RR 1.6) and smear not done (RR 1.6) were significant risk factors for an unfavourable treatment outcome. Conclusions: The incidence of TB is extremely high in the Eastern GSA of Cape Town however the prevalence of co-infection varies across the sub-districts. Although treatment outcomes have been improving, co-infection, retreatment and smear microscopy not done pre-treatment were factors significantly associated with an unfavourable treatment outcome. Eastern and Northern sub-districts were significantly more likely to have favourable treatment outcomes compared to Khayelitsha, where both TB incidence and HIV co-infection were greatest.