OpenUCT :: Browsing by Subject "Greenhouse gas mitigation"

Browsing by Subject "Greenhouse gas mitigation"

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Open Access
Analysis of possible quantified emission reduction commitments by individual Annex I Parties
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Letete, Thapelo
This paper draws on research in the public domain, in order to provide an analytical basis for a proposal on possible quantified emission reduction commitments for Annex 1 countries under the Kyoto Protocol.
Open Access
Analysis of the economic implications of a carbon tax
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew
The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the implications and impact of a carbon tax in the South African context – it aims to serve as an introduction rather than an exhaustive analysis, and therefore does not draw any comparative conclusions on the suitability of a carbon tax by comparison with alternative instruments such as cap and trade systems. Before turning to the specific topic of this paper, a carbon tax, some background is given to broadly on economic instruments and carbon markets. Following this, existing attempts to model the impact of a carbon tax on the South African economy are discussed, followed by a discussion on policy challenges and some existing proposals.
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Biofuel policies in South Africa: a critical analysis
(Springer, 2012) Letete, Thapelo; von Blottnitz, Harro
In 2007 the South African government released the country’s National Biofuels Industrial Strategy targeting a biofuels market penetration of 2% of liquid road transport fuels by 2013. Contrary to the international situation, the main driver for the development of a biofuels industry in South Africa is neither the economic threat of increasing oil prices nor mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, but the need to create a link between the country’s first and second economies. Specifically, the government hopes to stimulate economic development and to alleviate poverty through the promotion of farming in areas previously neglected by the apartheid system. Before the release of this strategy, commercial sugar producers and maize farmers represented the majority of the parties looking to drive the South African biofuels industry. But, two years after its release none of the ventures by these stakeholders have been able to take off, mainly due to the Strategy’s restrictions on the type and source of feedstock as well as on the type of farmers whose participation in the industry would be subsidised. This chapter presents a critical scientific-based analysis of the implications and results of South Africa’s National Biofuels Industrial Strategy. Firstly an update is presented on the state of the biofuels industry in the country, highlighting the current production statistics and the major investment activities, and how these were affected by the release of the Strategy. Then the ambiguities in the Strategy are outlined and critically analysed with reference to the current state of the biofuels industry in the country. The chapter then concludes with the lessons to be learnt from the South African experience by those African countries which are yet to develop their respective biofuel policies.
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Changing development paths: from an energy-intensive to low-carbon economy in South Africa
(Taylor & Francis, 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew
Climate change mitigation poses significant challenges for South Africa and its energy development, historically highly energy intensive. At the same time, the country faces a host of daunting development challenges, exacerbated by the legacy of apartheid. Examining both challenges, this paper considers how alternative conceptions of a development path can be achieved. In the short term, energy efficiency provides large potential for mitigation – and energy savings at the same time. Changing South Africa’s fuel mix, dependent to three-quarters on coal, is at least a medium-term challenge. The minerals–energy complex is so central to the economy that it is likely to take decades to change dramatically. The most transformative change is to an alteration in economic structure, likely to take long to achieve. The article examines specific policy instruments that might be implemented to achieve such a transformation. A transition to a low-carbon economy will require a paradigm shift in industrial policy. It will require considered provision for sectors sensitive to changes in energy prices. Building up new, climate-friendly industries will be needed to sustain employment and investment. To enable a just transition, provision will have to be made for emissions-intensive sectors, if they are to be phased out over time. South African government has adopted a vision, strategic direction and framework for climate policy. Policymakers have begun to understand that the future will be carbon constrained and that South Africa’s emission will have to stop growing, stabilize and decline before mid-century. The challenge of climate change is a long-term challenge, requiring immediate action. This article examines actions at near-, medium- and long-term timescales. Its focus is on the most transformative change, that of seeking to shift development paths.
Open Access
Comments on the Carbon Offsets Paper issued by National Treasury in April 2014
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2014) Energy Research Centre
While this is not the paper on a full emissions trading scheme (ETS) that had been indicated, comments are provided on the narrower focus of domestic offsets. The design is closely allied to Treasury’s design of a carbon tax as set out in a policy paper (National Treasury 2013), with domestic carbon off-sets designed to reduce tax liability by up to 10%, for activities not covered by the tax. ERC has commented separately on the tax policy, and the present comments should be read together with those comments. The finding that carbon offset projects can generate significant local sustainable development benefits (p. 16) should be treated with caution. The experience with the CDM has been mixed, as assessed for example in (Ellis, Winkler, Morlot & Gagnon-Lebrun 2007). Market mechanisms generally favour low-cost reductions, and require clear policy guidance and / or financial incentives to deliver additional benefits.
Open Access
Comments on the Carbon Tax Policy Paper issued by National Treasury in May 2013
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2013) Energy Research Centre
Our analysis of the carbon tax as proposed in Treasury’s policy paper is that it is both low relative to the required task and includes a complex set of exemptions. The effective tax rate of R12-48 / t CO2-eq is too little to transform South Africa’s energy economy, and does not make a sufficient contribution to bending the curve of our national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, so that it starts following a benchmark ‘peak, plateau and decline’ GHG emission trajectory, as set out in our climate policy (RSA 2011).
Open Access
Costing a 2020 target of 15% renewable electricity for South Africa - Final Draft
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2008) Marquard, Andrew; Merven, Bruno; Tyler, Emily; Hagemann, Kilian
This study explores the implications of a renewable energy target, with South Africa setting and achieving 15% of electricity generated from renewables by 2020 We report the effects of 15% renewable electricity on the total cost of electricity production, investment in electricity infrastructure, and national greenhouse gas emissions. Achieving such a target will pose institutional, financing and policy challenges and we consider several options. The two most promising technologies for South African conditions are wind and solar thermal electricity.
Open Access
A critical review of South Africa’s Carbon Tax Policy Paper: recommendations for the implementation of an Offset Mechanism
(2013-12) Newham, Melissa; Conradie, Beatrice
The South African government has emphasised the need for ‘developing country’ solutions to climate change that simultaneously pursue GHG reductions and socioeconomic development. To encourage the transition to a low-carbon economy the National Treasury has proposed a carbon tax and offset mechanism to be introduced in 2015. The practical delivery of the offset scheme remains uncertain. This paper investigates which features and governance structure would be desirable for such a mechanism in South Africa. Primary research is conducted into the South African voluntary carbon registry; Credible Carbon. The questions asked by this paper are: Should firms be allowed to offset emissions? What is the ideal way to implement offsets in South Africa? This paper concludes that Credible Carbon provides a good model for carbon trading that can be scaled up to meet demand under the new regulations. However, government needs to ensure that projects continue to deliver acceptable social benefits and that carbon auditors are well-trained and accountable.
Open Access
Draft policy framework for efficient water use in energy production.
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2014) Madhlopa, Amos; Keen, Samantha; Sparks, Debbie; Moorlach, Mascha
South Africa faces imperatives to secure a supply of clean water and to protect water resources, as well as to provide a secure supply of energy. Over and above the mandates of ensuring clean water provision and of improving the coverage and security of a reliable energy supply, the government faces challenges of reducing poverty and unemployment, and of ensuring sustainable development. In order to meet these challenges, the national government has developed a set of progressive policies. Harmonisation of these policies is itself a considerable challenge.
Open Access
Economics of climate change: context and concepts related to mitigation
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Tyler, Emily; Visser, Martine; Brick, Kerri
Climate change is increasingly seen as not only an environmental issue, but a deeply economic one. ‘Climate change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest ranging market failure ever seen’ (Stern Review 2006). Markets are failing to put a price on the emissions of greenhouse gases, passing the costs on to society as a whole.
Open Access
The effect of response measures to climate change on South Africa's economy and trade
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Jooste, Meagan; Winkler, Harald; van Seventer, Dirk; Truong, Truong P
Article 4.8 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides that ‘Parties shall give full consideration to … the impact of the implementation of response measures, especially on … (h) Countries whose economies are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing and export, and/or on consumption of fossil fuels and associated energy intensive products’. Article 2.3 of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC requires that developed country Parties (Annex I) ‘shall strive to implement policies and measures … in such a way to minimize … effects on international trade’ as well as minimizing the adverse effects on developing country Parties (Article 3.14). If Annex I Parties implement mitigation, they are assumed to buy less oil, coal or other fossil fuels. In this context, response measures are actions taken or initiated by developed countries (Annex 1) but with the impacts and ramifications flowing on to developing countries. The concern of developing countries, therefore, is in those impacts which to a greater or lesser extent depend on the degree of exposure of developing countries to trade (with or without the implementation of corresponding climate measures within the developing countries themselves). The South African economy derives much of its growth from production related to the energy-intensive sectors of its economy. In general, with the climate negotiations on the future of the climate regime post-2012, the implications for energy-intensive and trade-exposed sectors of the economy need to be clearly understood. This research confirms findings of previous studies (see Section 1.3), that the impacts of response measures may imply losses of exports in some sectors, but also possibly gains in other sectors. In this report the scenarios examined are broader than those examined under an earlier Fund of Research into Industrial Development, Growth and Equity (FRIDGE) study. In particular, this study highlights the impacts which response measures have on sectors other than the manufacturing sector, including mining, agriculture and tourism. The present report has provided a more specific identification of energy-intensive and trade-intensive sectors – and those that are both energy- and trade-intensive. We have also examined variations related to scenarios with and without emission trading among Annex I countries, and extended this to the consideration of a no-lose crediting approach for non-Annex I (NAI) countries.
Open Access
Electricity from solar home systems in South Africa
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2007) Prasad, Gisela
In developed countries, renewable energy (RE) technologies are most often introduced for environmental reasons, to reduce GHG emissions mandated under the Kyoto Protocol – which South Africa signed in 2002. The Protocol does not commit non-Annex 1 (developing) countries such as South Africa to any emission targets in the first commitment period (2008 to 2012), however, and it creates no external pressure to reduce emissions. So it is understandable that in this case study the major government concern is not the environment, but access to electricity for the poor in remote rural areas. RE technologies are not widely disseminated in South Africa, although solar resources are very high and solar technologies are particularly suitable. The general environmental awareness is limited when compared to European countries and it is only recently that the media have been more regularly covering issues such as global warming and its impact on South Africa. The South African government generally supports RE, and its RE policy stipulates a voluntary target of 10 000 GWh to be supplied from renewable sources by 2013. The target is approximately 10% of the country’s electricity demand, of which now less than 1% is met from renewable sources (DME 2004). Different players in projects and the industry give various explanations and reasons why the market has not responded more positively, often citing high initial capital cost as the major explanation. The two South African case studies describe solar water heaters (SWHs) (case study 1) and, in this report, electricity from solar home systems (case study 2). Both case studies include the impact of poverty on the dissemination and acceptance of the technology. SHS using photovoltaic panels to generate electricity have been provided as part of the National Electrification programme in remote poor rural areas to which the grid has not been extended, as a substitute for grid electricity, although in fact subsidised SHS were expected to bring light and television services at a much faster rate than they actually did.
Open Access
Electricity supply options, sustainable development and climate change priorities: case studies for South Africa
(Magnum Custom Publishing, 2007) Winkler, Harald; Mwakasonda, Stanford; Garg, Amit; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Mukheibir, Pierre
This report summarizes the results of the Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing economies project that has been managed by the UNEP Risø Centre on behalf of UNEP DTIE. The project, sponsored by UNEP, is a partnership between the UNEP Risø Centre and centers of excellence in South Africa, China, India and Brazil. The focus of this report is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. The country study results for future energy and environment projections that are included in this report are backed by intensive economy-energy-environment modeling by the Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town, South Africa, wherein general scenario analysis of the energy sector explores some policies in more depth. The report argues that starting from development objectives is critical to mitigation efforts in developing countries. Instead of defining local benefits as ancillary to mitigation, reductions of GHG emissions should be seen as the co-benefits of policies that drive local sustainable development. A development-focused approach seems more likely to be implemented than the imposition of GHG targets by the international community—especially as South Africa has adopted development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals and promoted the Johannesburg Plan of Action.
Open Access
Emissions trading as a policy option for greenhouse gas mitigation in South Africa
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Tyler, Emily; du Toit, Michelle; Dunn, Zelda
An emissions trading scheme (ETS) is based on the allocation of allowances to emit pollutants, which in the case of climate change are greenhouse gases. Allowances are allocated to a defined set of emitters, who are required to hold sufficient allowances to cover their emissions at the end of a compliance period, or face penalties. Scarcity is created in the scheme through the allocation of fewer allowances than emissions, resulting in emitters having to choose between reducing their emissions in line with their allowance allocations, or purchasing additional allowances to cover their excess emissions levels.
Open Access
Energy Development and Climate Change: Decarbonising Growth in South Africa
(University of Cape Town, 2007) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew
This paper presents a case study of human development and climate change in South Africa. It starts by outlining the key development challenges that the country faces and the history of recent responses in development policy. Section 2 hones in on the energy sector, providing a brief profile of the sector contributing most to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The implications of South Africa’s ‘minerals-energy complex’1 for its GHG emissions profile are examined in section 3. Section 4 discusses the context and development of South African climate change policy, and examines implementation progress to date. The final section of the paper begins with a summary analysis of key mitigation options in energy efficiency, changes in the fuel mix and structural changes. Section 5 then examines the key constraints facing the implementation of such options, before concluding with possibilities for international cooperation to contribute to sustainable development and mitigation in South Africa.
Open Access
Energy emissions: a modelling input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2007) Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary; Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Merven, Bruno
Emissions from energy supply and use constitute by far the largest part of South Africa’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Hence energy modeling is a key analytical basis for the information provided to the long-term mitigation scenarios (LTMS) process. This report contains the technical information provided by the energy modeling team at the Energy Rserach Centre, led by Alison Hughes, to the Scenario Building Team which developed the LTMS scenarios. The information was integrated into the overall Technical Report (with appendices), its Technical Summary and the Scenario Document.
Open Access
Energy futures modelling for African cities: selecting a modelling tool for the SAMSET project
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2014) Tait, Louise; McCall, Bryce; Stone, Adrian
Urbanisation is occurring fastest in developing countries, with the least developed countries expected to have the highest population growth rates between 2010 and 2050 (Madlener and Sunak, 2011). Cities in these countries are going to increasingly be important sites of energy demand and associated emissions. Much of the literature about sustainable urban energy transitions has to date focussed on developed country contexts; as the current sources of greatest emissions, this makes sense. In looking forward, however, if the energy demand and emissions of developing country cities increase to that equivalent of many western cities today, we may be unable to avoid catastrophic climate change. Transitioning energy infrastructures and associated urban systems is a long-term process. In the absence of forward planning, developing country cities run risks of infrastructural and urban planning lock-in to systems that are unsustainable (Olazabal and Pascual, 2013).
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Energy policies for sustainable development in South Africa
(Elsevier, 2007) Winkler, Harald
This paper summarises the results of a study that analysed ways of making South Africa’s future energy development more sustainable. The South African economy is comparatively energy-intensive, with total primary energy supply of 11.7 MJ per US$ of GDP on a purchasing power parity basis, compared to 7.9 MJ/$ for Asia and 6.7 MJ/$ for Latin America. Moreover, the high dependence on coal makes the country also very carbon-intensive, with energy related CO2 emissions of 6.7 tonnes per capita, comparable to the OECD average of about 11 tCO2 /cap., and far higher than the non-OECD average of 1.7 tCO2/cap. Important policy initiatives are already under way to improve energy efficiency as well as the share of renewable energy. The impact of different energy policies, including alternative technologies for both supply and demand up to 2025, were analysed using the Markal model, a least-cost optimising tool. The reference case is close to the government’s Integrated Energy Plan, with CO2 emissions increasing from 337 million tonnes (Mt) in 2001 to 591 Mt in 2025. A cost-effective renewable energy policy scenario would increase the renewable electricity generation from 2,000 GWh in 2001 to almost 18,000 GWh in 2025, with significant contribution from solar thermal and biomass cogeneration technologies. Energy efficiency can make a substantial contribution, especially in industry. The combination of measures would reduce total energy system costs by 16 billion rands ($ 2.2 billion) and CO2 emissions by 770 Mt, each over a 25-year period. The policies analysed here can therefore contribute both to sustainable development and to climate change mitigation.
Open Access
Energy, water and climate change in Southern Africa: what are the issues that need further investment and research?
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2012) Prasad, Gisela; Boulle, Michael; Boyd, Anya; Rahlao, Sebataolo; Wlokas, Holle; Yaholnitsky, Ivan
Regional climate change projections in Southern Africa, based on GCMs comparing 2080-2099 to 1980-1999, indicate that global warming will most likely lead to greater than the global annual mean temperatures for all seasons, 3.1°C for summer warming and 3.4°C for winter warming (Christensen et al, 2007). Warming in Southern Africa will lead to increasing rainfall intensities, decreasing frequencies of low intensity (soft soaking) rainfall and longer dry period between rainfall events. This will result in more severe draughts, floods and heatwaves, which will lead to greater food insecurity. In historic times, draughts and floods had already major impacts on Southern African populations. Around 1200 to 1500, droughts led people to abandon settlements in the Kalahari Desert. The Lifaqane wars, starting in about 1815, were characterized by a 25-year period of famine and violent conflict between peoples in Southern Africa. During the 1991-1992 draught, 20 million people in the region (15% of SADC population) needed food relief (Dejene et al 2011). Many parts of Southern Africa face two critical resource constraints on development, namely energy and water. Energy and water are closely linked at different levels and scales. Water drives the turbines of hydroelectric power plants. Processing of coal and cooling in thermal and nuclear power plants requires water and energy is required to lift, treat and distribute water. Even at the household level, we observe water-energy linkages. When using water-saving showerheads, for example, we not only save water, but also electricity for heating the water. This complex interconnection is called the water-energy nexus. At the same time, coal-based power plants emit large amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change and climate variability which then leads to floods and droughts. In times of drought little water flows into hydroelectric dams, affecting electricity generation. For rural communities the greater frequencies and severity of droughts and floods caused by climate change leads not only to crop failure and subsequent hunger but also interferes with water supply technologies when, for example, the water levels in boreholes rise or fall beyond the specification of the pump. Thus climate change critically impacts the water-energy nexus. The International Development Research Centre (IDRC) in Canada commissioned the Energy Research Centre (ERC) at the University of Cape Town to assess the water-energy nexus in the context of climate change. ‘The goal of the exploratory project is to analyse the way energy and water services can be combined and improved to enhance resilience and adaptive capacity of communities to climate variability and change’. After an introduction to the water-energy nexus in Southern Africa (Chapter 1) and a brief review of the four countries studied as well as climate change scenarios for the Southern African region (Chapter 2), the study reports on the following four major research topics identified by the Southern African team: 1. The state of integrated planning of water and energy resources in the context of climate change (Chapter 3). 2. Opportunities and barriers for renewable energy technologies for rural water services in Namibia, Botswana and Mozambique (Chapters 4 and 5). 3. The water-energy nexus in policies of South Africa (Chapter 6). 4. An investigation of water supply adaptation technologies and strategies in a case study from Lesotho (Chapter 7). The assessment is based on secondary data through a cross-disciplinary desktop study, discussions with experts and two workshops. The countries covered in this report are Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, and South Africa.
Open Access
Fair and effective multilateralism in the post-Copenhagen climate negotiations
(University of Cape Town, 2010) Winkler, Harald; Beaumont, Judy
Copenhagen failed to agree a new legal treaty, and fragmentation is now a possible scenario. What options exist for a fair and effective multilateralism that might bring about the next turning point? Possible changes are considered in the context of the ‘how, what, where and who’ of multilateral climate negotiations. Fair process is crucial to an acceptable outcome. In order to increase effectiveness, multilateralism may need to define contributions from smaller groups, on a representative basis. The functions of other fora must be to build common understanding, whereas decisions and agreements are negotiated under the UNFCCC and its instruments. Reorganization of work within the UNFCCC will need to enhance its catalytic role, including how it supports domestic action. A mix of processes is needed to speed up the pace of decision-making, combining well-established UN procedures with some innovative ideas including those from the theory and practice in other multilateral environmental agreements. A review in 2015 must increase ambition. We need to invest in the UNFCCC, which remains the only legitimate, fully inclusive forum. Only a legally binding agreement ensures that others also act (‘fair’) and a binding nature is the best assurance of implementation (‘effective’). Equity demands a fair and effective outcome.