Browsing by Subject "Confidence Intervals"

Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Open Access
    Antimicrobial susceptibility of organisms causing community-acquired urinary tract infections in Gauteng Province, South Africa
    (2013) Lewis, David A; Gumede, Lindy Y E; Van der Hoven, Louis A; De Gita, Gloria N; De Kock, Elsabe J E; De Lange, Telsa; Maseko, Venessa; Kekana, Valentia; Smuts, Francois P; Perovic, Olga
    BACKGROUND: Patients with community-acquired urinary tract infections (UTIs) frequently present to healthcare facilities in South Africa (SA). AIM: To provide information on UTI aetiology and antimicrobial susceptibility of pathogens. METHODS: We recruited women with UTI-related symptoms, who tested positive for ≥2 urine dipstick criteria (proteinuria, blood, leucocytes or nitrites) at 1 public and 5 private primary healthcare facilities in 2011. Demographic and clinical data were recorded and mid-stream urine (MSU) specimens were cultured. UTI pathogens were Gram-stained and identified to species level. Etest-based antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed for amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, cefixime, cefuroxime, ciprofloxacin, fosfomycin, levofloxacin, nitrofurantoin, norfloxacin and trimethoprim/sulphamethoxazole. RESULTS: Of the 460 women recruited, 425 MSU samples were processed and 204 UTI pathogens were identified in 201 samples. Most pathogens were Gram-negative bacilli (GNB) (182; 89.2%) and 22 (10.8%) were Gram-positive cocci (GPC). Escherichia coli was the most frequent GNB (160; 79.6%), while Enterococcus faecalis was the predominant GPC (8; 4.0%). The UTI pathogens had similar susceptibility profiles for fosfomycin (95.5%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 92.6 - 98.4), the 3 fluoroquinolones (94.1%; 95% CI 90.8 - 97.4), nitrofurantoin (91.7%; 95% CI 87.8 - 95.6), cefuroxime (90.1%; 95% CI 86.0 - 94.3) and cefixime (88.2%; 95% CI 83.7 - 92.6). UTI pathogens were less susceptible to amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (82.8%; 95% CI 77.5 - 88.0) when compared with fluoroquinolones and fosfomycin. Trimethoprim/ sulphamethoxazole was the least efficacious antimicrobial agent (44.3% susceptible; 95% CI 37.4 - 51.2). CONCLUSION: This study provides relevant data for the empirical treatment of community-acquired UTIs in SA.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Open Access
    Incidence of cytological abnormalities within 24 months of a normal cervical smear in Soweto, South Africa
    (2012) Adam, Yasmin; McIntyre, James Alasdair; de Bruyn, Guy
    BACKGROUND: A screening programme for cervical cancer has been implemented in South Africa (SA) with intervals of 10 years after a normal cytological result. There are no studies that evaluate repeat screening at a shorter interval in SA. OBJECTIVES: (i) To find the incidence of cytological abnormalities on a repeat test after a report of normal cytology or an inadequate Pap smear; and (ii) to explore the factors associated with an abnormal cytology on repeat testing. METHODS: This was a secondary data analysis of a randomised controlled trial of diaphragm, lubricant gel and condoms v. condoms in the prevention of HIV infection. HIV-negative women were recruited between November 2003 and December 2005, with a normal Pap smear at entry. Observation time was from the first Pap smear to the date of the repeat Pap smear. Explanatory variables used were baseline, excepting any new HIV infection. RESULTS: The incidence of cytological abnormalities was 6.48% yearly in women with a previously normal Pap smear and 11.71% yearly in women with an inadequate smear result (p=0.03). The incidence of high-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesions (HSILs) was <0.5%. Factors associated with abnormal cytology were a history of ectopic pregnancy (odds ratio (OR) 9.25; confidence interval (CI) 1.78 - 48.02; p=0.01), number of male partners (OR 1.12; CI 1.03 - 1.22; p=0.01), history of vaginal discharge (OR 13.95; CI 1.18 - 164.47; p=0.04), and incident HIV infection (OR 6.56; CI 1.14 - 38.16; p=0.04). CONCLUSION: The incidence of HSILs is low in the first 2 years after a normal or inadequate Pap smear, even in a setting with a high prevalence of cytological abnormalities.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Open Access
    Measles vaccination coverage in high-incidence areas of the Western Cape, following the mass vaccination campaign
    (2013) Bernhardt, G L; Cameron, N A; Willems, B; Boulle, A; Coetzee, D
    BACKGROUND: Despite significant advances in measles control, large epidemics occurred in many African countries in 2009 - 2011, including South Africa. South Africa's control strategy includes mass vaccination campaigns about every 4 years, the last of which was conducted nationally in April 2010 and coincided with the epidemic. AIM: A community survey was conducted in the Western Cape to assess measles vaccination coverage attained by routine and campaign services, in children aged 6 months to 59 months at the time of the mass campaign, from high-incidence areas. METHODS: Households were consecutively sampled in high-incidence areas identified using measles epidemic surveillance data. A caregiver history of campaign vaccination and routine vaccination status from the child's Road to Health card were collected. Pre- and post-campaign immunity was estimated by analytical methods. RESULTS: Of 8 332 households visited, there was no response at 3 435 (41.2%); 95.1% (1 711/1 800) of eligible households participated; and 91.2% (1 448/1 587; 95% confidence interval 86 - 94%) of children received a campaign vaccination. Before the campaign, 33.0% (103/312) of 9 - 17-month-olds had not received a measles vaccination, and this was reduced to 4.5% (14/312) after the campaign. Of the 1 587 children, 61.5% were estimated to have measles immunity before the campaign, and this increased to 94.0% after the campaign. DISCUSSION: Routine services had failed to achieve adequate herd immunity in areas with suspected highly mobile populations. Mass campaigns in such areas in the Western Cape significantly increased coverage. Extra vigilance is required to monitor and sustain adequate coverage in these areas.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Open Access
    Medical inpatient mortality at Groote Schuur Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa, 2002-2009
    (2012) Myer, Landon; Smith, Emilee; Mayosi, Bongani M
    BACKGROUND: Despite the challenges facing healthcare in South Africa, empirical insights into the performance of healthcare services over time are scarce. METHODS: We analysed first admissions of adult medical inpatients to Groote Schuur Hospital, Cape Town, from January 2002 to July 2009. Data included age, sex, medical specialty, and date of admission and discharge. We used population group and hospital billing codes as proxy measures for socio-economic status (SES). We calculated the duration of stay in days from the date of admission to discharge, and inpatient mortality rates per 1 000 patient days. Poisson regression was used to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRR) in unadjusted analysis and after adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: There were 42 582 first admissions. Patient demographics shifted towards a lower SES. Median age decreased from 52 years in 2002 to 49 years in 2009, while patients aged 20 - 39 years increased in proportion from 26% to 31%. The unadjusted proportion of admissions which resulted in in-hospital deaths increased from 12% in 2002 to 17% in 2009. Corresponding mortality rates per 1 000 patient days were 17.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15.9 - 18.3) and 23.4 (95% CI 21.6 - 25.4), respectively (unadjusted MRR 1.37; 95% CI 1.23 - 1.53). Annual increases in mortality rates were highest during the first 2 days following admission (increasing from 30.1 to 50.3 deaths per 1 000), and were associated with increasing age, non-paying patient status, black population group and male sex, and were greatest in the emergency ward (adjusted MRR 1.73, comparing 2009 with 2002; 95% CI 1.49 - 2.01). DISCUSSION: Increasing medical inpatient mortality rates at a large South African academic hospital were most marked during the first 2 days after admission and appeared greatest among emergency medical inpatients.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Open Access
    Prevalence and determinants of stunting and overweight in 3-year-old black South African children residing in the Central Region of Limpopo Province, South Africa
    (2005) Mamabolo, Ramoteme L; Alberts, Marianne; Steyn, Nelia P; Delemarre-van de Waal, Henriette A; Levitt, Naomi S
    OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of stunting, wasting and overweight and their determinants in 3-year-old children in the Central Region of Limpopo Province, South Africa. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Rural villages in the Central Region of the Limpopo Province, South Africa. SUBJECTS: One hundred and sixty-two children who were followed from birth were included in the study. Anthropometric measurements and sociodemographic characteristics of the children were recorded. RESULTS: Height-for-age Z-scores were low, with a high prevalence of stunting (48%). The children also exhibited a high prevalence of overweight (22%) and obesity (24%). Thirty-one (19%) children were both stunted and overweight. Gaining more weight within the first year of life increased the risk of being overweight at 3 years by 2.39 times (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.96-4.18) while having a greater length at 1 year was protective against stunting (odds ratio (OR) 0.41; 95% CI 0.17-0.97). Having a mother as a student increased the risk for stunting at 3 years by 18.21 times (95% CI 9.46-34.74) while having a working mother increased the risk for overweight by 17.87 times (95% CI 8.24-38.78). All these factors also appeared as risks or as being protective in children who were both overweight and stunted, as did living in a household having nine or more persons (OR 5.72; 95% CI 2.7-12.10). CONCLUSION: The results of this study highlight the importance of evaluating anthropometric status in terms of both stunting and overweight. Furthermore, it is important to realise the importance of normal length and weight being attained at 1 year of age, since these in turn predict nutritional status at 3 years of age.