Browsing by Author "Zuidgeest, Mark"
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- ItemOpen AccessA GIS based planning support system for inclusionary housing profitability optimisation in Cape Town, South Africa(2018) Krause, Philip; Behrens, Roger; Zuidgeest, MarkApartheid era legislation, along with automobile-oriented city planning practices, have left legacies of race/class-linked spatial inequality, and unsustainable land-use transport inter-relationships in post-Apartheid South African cities. Most poor urban communities still live in peripheral settlements, which are far from employment, education, and social opportunities. Consequently, these communities are reliant on public transit services which are inadequate and often unsafe. Despite substantial democratic era public transit investment, this automobile-oriented spatial legacy, rapid urbanisation and a growing middle class have contributed to increased automobile ownership and severe traffic congestion. This, along with inner-city and surrounding precinct regeneration programmes, guided by neo-liberal market-friendly agendas, have contributed towards gentrification and consequent displacement of poorer communities from the few remaining central, but previously affordable, precincts. Intervention is required to halt this trend, and to enable poorer communities’ return to central urban neighbourhoods. Inclusionary housing in private sector housing developments could be one such intervention. Since 2007, national and municipal authorities have devoted resources to developing inclusionary housing policies; over a decade later, none have progressed beyond draft state. A core challenge has been establishing mechanisms that ensure sufficient flexibility to accommodate widely differing market conditions between precincts. Decisions by local authorities/private property developers to grant concessions/pursue projects are influenced by constraining factors applicable to the particular land parcels considered. The ease and rigour of such decision-making at both a policy and implementation level could arguably be enhanced by a GIS (geographic information system) based PSS (planning support system), that is capable of analysing spatial and non-spatial factors on multiple land parcels. This could enable a comparison of the impact that concessions (in exchange for inclusion of affordable units) may have on the financial viability of projects. The research objective of this dissertation was to establish the technical feasibility of developing such a GIS-based inclusionary housing profitability assessment PSS, capable of utilising existing GIS data (maintained by City of Cape Town metropolitan municipality), and which is capable of aiding local authorities and property developers, and ultimately, low-income communities. In conducting this research, a system intending to meet this objective was developed. Through engagement with stakeholders, five case study sites were identified. These were analysed using the system, allowing assessment of their suitability for inclusionary housing, while also allowing for the performance of the system itself to be evaluated. Case study findings suggest that moderately wealthy neighbourhoods are best suited to inclusionary housing projects, as the impact of cross-subsidisation appeared strongest. Project viability was found to be highly sensitive to market conditions, highlighting the importance of using accurate and up-to-date market data. Ultimately, it was concluded that stakeholders see value in the development of a GIS based inclusionary housing PSS, but for the system to truly meet its objective of aiding inclusionary housing policy development and implementation decisions, additional functionality would be required.
- ItemOpen AccessBarriers to cycling mobility in Masiphumelele, Cape Town: a best-worst scaling approach(2016) Irlam, James Hamilton; Zuidgeest, MarkNon-motorised transport (NMT) such as cycling and walking has multiple social, economic, environmental, climate and public health benefits and is integral to the agenda of sustainable development. There is considerable potential for more cycling mobility in South Africa, especially in low-income communities (LICs). Barriers to cycling mobility were investigated in Masiphumelele, a LIC in Cape Town, in order to inform recommendations for promoting cycling as a mode of transport in this community and beyond. A mixed methods design of qualitative and quantitative methods was used. A focus group discussion (FGD) with local bicycle shop customers informed the design of a cross-sectional cluster sampling questionnaire and a Best-Worst Scaling (BWS) stated choice survey of 100 household residents. The BWS survey used 10 choice sets of 4statements each to rank the relative importance to study participants of 20 potential barriers to cycling mobility on their average Best-Worse (B-W) scores.
- ItemOpen AccessThe design of public transit networks with heuristic algorithms : case study Cape Town(2014) Nnene, Obiora A; Zuidgeest, Mark; Beukes, Edward AndrewThe Transit Network Design Problem (TNDP) is well-researched in the field of transportation planning. It deals with the design of optimized public transportation networks and systems, and belongs to the class of non-linear optimization problems. In solving the problem, attempts are made to balance the tradeoffs between utility maximization and cost minimization given some resource constraints, within the context of a transportation network. In this dissertation, the design of a public transit network is undertaken and tested for Cape Town. The focus of the research is on obtaining an optimal network configuration that minimizes cost for both users and operators of the network. In doing so, heuristic solution algorithms are implemented in the design process, since they are known to generate better results for non-linear optimization problems than analytical ones. This algorithm which is named a Bus Route Network Design Algorithm (BRNDA) is based on genetic algorithms. Furthermore, it has three key components namely: 1) Bus Route Network Generation Algorithm (BRNGA) - which generates the potential network solutions; 2) Bus Route Network Analysis Procedure (BRNAP) - which evaluates the generated solutions; 3) Bus Route Network Search Algorithm (BRNSA) - which searches for an optimal or near optimal network option, among the feasible ones. The solution approach is tested first on a small scale network to demonstrate its numerical results, then it is applied to a large scale network, namely the Cape Town road network.
- ItemOpen AccessDevelopment of context-sensitive accessibility indicators: a GIS-based modelling approach for Cape Town(2019) Aivinhenyo, Imuentinyan; Zuidgeest, MarkAdequate public transport infrastructure and services are essential to facilitate access to basic opportunities, such as jobs, healthcare, education, recreation or shopping, especially in low-income cities where the majority of the low-income population have no access to the car. In the context of transport exclusion and urban poverty, access and accessibility metrics can serve as good indicators for the identification of transport-disadvantaged zones or population groups in a city. In Cape Town, accessibility-based planning is being embraced by the authority as a means of addressing the planning defects of the past apartheid regime, which created a city that is spatially fragmented by race and income levels. Among the agenda outlined in its 5-year Integrated Transport Plan of 2013-2018, is the need to develop a highly integrated public transport network in which all households would have equitable access to the public transport system, especially for the majority of the urban poor who reside in the city outskirts far from major economic centres. Although planning efforts are being made to redeem the defects of the past, there is still the need for tools and indicators to understand the current situation, as well as to further aid planning and decision making about land-use and transport. The objective of this research, therefore, is to develop suitable indicators of accessibility, identify possible spatial and socioeconomic drivers of accessibility and evaluate equity in the distribution of accessibility benefits for various population groups in Cape Town. In the study, transport network data of Cape Town are utilised to develop GIS-based indicators of network access and origin accessibility to various opportunities like jobs, healthcare and education, across various modes of travel. An Access Index measures public transport service presence within a zone, based on route and stops availability. The index is used to compare the coverage levels provided by each mode of public transport in the city. Also, an Accessibility Index is proposed, that measures the number of opportunities 'potentially reachable' within a specified 'reasonable’ travel time. A key consideration in measuring accessibility by public transport is the monetary cost of overcoming distance, based on the pricing structure that exists in Cape Town. Equity in accessibility is further evaluated both vertically and horizontally. Vertical equity is evaluated using a proposed Accessibility Loss Index, which analyses the potential implication of affordability and budget restrictions on accessibility, based on the income level of the poor households. GINI type of measures is also proposed to evaluate horizontal equity across the various population groups for various travel modes. To further understand the likely drivers of accessibility, an exploratory OLS regression technique is employed to investigate the relationship between accessibility and a combination of socioeconomic and built environment features of the study area. The study reveals among other things that potential accessibility achievable by car is far higher than that achievable by public transport. The paratransit mode provides the most extensive access coverage, and the highest level of accessibility among all the public transport modes investigated. However, this mode shows to be one of the most expensive options of travel, especially for low-income households who are likely to be restricted by travel monetary budgets. The train turns out to be the most affordable travel option, although the level of accessibility achievable with the train is much lower compared to the paratransit or regular bus. From a vertical equity perspective, the consideration of transport affordability drastically reduces the opportunity space and potential accessibility for the poorest population group compared to the higher income groups. The study further interrogates the distance-based tariff model of public transport services in Cape Town, which it considered to be detrimental to the welfare of poor households, regarding the potential to access essential opportunities. The contribution of this study to the body of research on accessibility is twofold: methodological and contextual. On the methodological dimension, it presents a GIS based approach of modelling accessibility both for the car and for a multimodal public transport system that combines four modes; bus, train, BRT and a minibus taxi (paratransit). It also builds on existing gravity-based potential accessibility measure by incorporating an affordability dimension. The consideration of affordability adds a further layer that enables vertical equity evaluation by judging the potential for destination reachability by the monetary out-of-pocket cost of travel. This approach is considered to be more sensitive to the context of low-income cities like Cape Town, where low-income household’s daily travel decisions are likely to be more guided by monetary cost.
- ItemOpen AccessEffects of feeder network operations on trunk-feeder network performance: a case study of Mitchells Plain, Cape Town(2017) Birungi, Claire; Zuidgeest, Mark; Schalekamp, HerrieIn South Africa, more than 65% of commuters use public transport every day. However, the public transport system which commonly takes the form of a trunk-feeder network is not structured to meet the needs of the different users. Taxis which are informal serve as feeders to an interchange while the trunk services depart the interchange in a scheduled formal manner. Because of this difference in the nature in which the two public transport services operate, it renders the intermodal system uncoordinated. It thus makes it difficult for transport planners to coordinate unscheduled feeder services to the scheduled trunk services. This study investigated how the feeder public transport service configurations and operations on trunk bus services can be integrated and coordinated. The research employed an agent-based simulation tool to model and simulate trunk-feeder operations and further investigate how the configuration and operational characteristics of the trunk-feeder public transport system impact the passenger travel performance. The modelled intermodal operations mimicked typical trunk-feeder operations as follows: passenger arrival at stops to wait for taxis; passengers boarding and alighting along the feeder route; transferring passengers alighting from taxis; and walking through the interchange to connect to their respective trunk services so as to reach their destinations. The output of the validated base simulation model i.e. system characteristics, configurations and parameters were utilized to determine the Key Performance Indicators (KPI) in the system. The analysis of the KPIs showed that there is indeed no co-ordination between feeder arrivals and trunk departures, and that this is mostly a result of inefficiencies in current operations in the feeder system. Scenarios were then developed to improve the trunk-feeder model where they focused on improving the efficiency of taxi feeder operations along the feeder route, as well as integrating and co-ordinating the feeder services to the trunk services. The results of the model analysis showed that integration of trunk and feeder services can be achieved through timed transfers; whereby taxi arrivals at the interchange are co-ordinated to bus departures from the interchange. This must of course be supplemented with other improvements tested in the scenarios on the feeder network. However, the operational behaviour of taxi feeder services is not predictable as a result of route non-compliance. This makes it difficult to plan timed transfers between them and formal bus and train services in order to achieve integration. It is therefore key that the transport authority and the taxi association's work closely to ensure that the regulations set about taxi operations and route compliance are followed. Without monitoring, the taxis will tend to operate in areas with high demand as operators are profit seeking as opposed to servicing the community and this will limit the success of this objective. Key words: Trunk-feeder, Taxi, simulation modelling, co-ordination, boarding & alighting, public transport integration, passengers
- ItemOpen AccessEquitable distribution of growth for utilitarian and non-utilitarian infrastructure planning(Springer, 2015) Wismadi, Arif; Brussel, Mark; Zuidgeest, Mark; van Maarseveen, MartinTo simultaneously address social equity and spatial equity, we develop a new type of preference modelling to distribute infrastructure resources that takes into account neighbourhood inequity effects. We compare this so-called spatial preference modelling (SPM) with the more common non-spatial preference modelling (NSPM) in terms of their compliance to two distinct perspectives of welfare theory, i.e., utilitarian and non-utilitarian welfare theory. With respect to utilitarian theory, we apply a total utility equality approach, whereas for non-utilitarian equality, we conduct a curve dominance analysis to evaluate the effect on (1) pro-poor policy, (2) inequity and (3) prosperity. A case study for the Special Region of Yogyakarta in Indonesia is used to show the difference in the effectiveness of SPM and NSPM in resolving resource allocation problems in the fields of transportation, electricity, telecommunication and freshwater infrastructures, four fields of infrastructure that differ in terms of their typology (point, linear, plane and space), initial level of development and spatial inequity. The results confirm that SPM complies better with both welfare theories than NSPM. Moreover, the curve dominance analysis reveals that infrastructure characteristics and the level of development contribute to model effectiveness. Hence, the findings can contribute to a more effective policy for equitable growth.
- ItemOpen AccessEstablishment & Assessment of the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams for the City of Durban Freeway Network Using Empirical Data(2021) Mthembu, Siphesihle Henry; Zuidgeest, MarkThe history of traffic flow studies dates to the years between the 1960s and 1970s. This paper reviews the history of traffic flow studies in the context of Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams (MFD) to date. The recent findings have shown that understanding the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams (MFD) in cities can bring success in managing congestions. This study aimed to establish the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams (MFD) for the City of Durban Freeway network. Motivated the study was a failure seen in various transportation systems after the 2010 FIFA world cup in South African cities. This failure was associated with the adoption of the transportation system from first-world countries. The South African cities are not densified when compared to the first world countries' cities, of course, due to spatial urban planning and segregation of the past. The key lesson was that SA transportation systems problems are unique; solutions should be attributed to the existing travel demand conditions. This birthed the idea that the performance of a traffic system should uniquely serve the specific travel demands. The core aim of this study was to establish the MFD for the freeway network in the City of Durban, South Africa. Two major freeway corridors were evaluated, i,e. the National route 2 and 3. The study used loop detector data extracted from a total of 88 loop detector stations. The loop detector stations were dispersed 100-500 m apart over the network. The data was recorded in September 2019. The collected data was analysed in five minutes intervals. When the MFD was established on the network, aggregated detector loops produced a well defined MFD on the 2 nd,3rd ,16th, and the 23rd of September, whereas, on a separate day (30th of September), a scattered MFD forming a hysteresis loop was observed. The formation of the hysteresis was associated with the lack of alternative routes for drivers to avoid congestions in the network. These observations are discussed later in this paper. The study was a success as it did reveal that the MFD was an attribute of the City of Durban freeway network. The established MFD showed that the freeway network operates between the unsaturated and saturated state. This MFD does not reach the saturated flow. The highest recorded density was found at 10.11 veh/km while the highest recorded flow was found at 733.28 veh/hr. The network operates at an average speed of vav= 79.84 km/hr. The estimated average density for the network to reach the gridlocked state was calculated to be 75veh/km.
- ItemOpen AccessEstimating mode choice: A discrete choice analysis of a park and ride system for Florida road, Durban(2018) Bilala, Nikita; Behrens, Roger; Zuidgeest, MarkThe majority of roads in Southern Africa have been designed primarily for private vehicle usage, with alternative modes such as public transport and non- motorised transport being largely neglected, and this is also true of Florida Road. Florida Road is located in Morningside, Durban, and has become an iconic landmark street known for its buzzing day and night life. However, due to the lack of adequate parking provision, coupled with increased traffic volumes, this street is plagued by traffic congestion, drivers performing unsafe vehicle manoeuvres as well as illegal parking, contributing to increased driver frustration and the increased possibility of car accidents. In this study, the feasibility of introducing a Park and Ride (P&R) system to Florida Road (from Greyville Racecourse) was investigated. Previous studies have shown that P&R systems can have a positive impact on traffic congestion on the local road network, however, there are not many studies that document the travel impacts and demand for P&R systems of this type – smaller P&R that do not link to major bus or rail public transport systems, but rather operate as “express bus” systems. This dissertation investigated the predicted travel behaviour responses of car users to the introduction of a P&R system to Florida Road from Greyville Racecourse. By doing so, the demand for the service, in terms of choice probabilities, was forecast. Another interest in this study was to examine the influence of current travel behaviour patterns as well as socio demographic characteristics on the predicted demand for the service. A stated preference survey was designed and implemented, which presented respondents with hypothetical choice scenarios involving three modes considered available – car, P&R and Uber with varying levels of service attributes i.e. travel cost, time spent parking, security and headway. A questionnaire asking respondents about their current travel patterns and personal characteristics was also administered. A discrete choice experiment was then carried out. A discrete choice experiment models the stated choices of respondents and provides a relative evaluation on the attributes presented, based on their responses. A multinomial logit model was then used in this experiment, to estimate the results. The results of the discrete choice experiment show that travel cost is one of the most important factors in mode choice evaluation by users of Florida Road. In particular to the P&R system, the service headway as well as presence of car guards/ security at the P&R facility were critical determinants of choice. Employment status was found to have a significant impact on the perceived costs of a trip, particularly trips made by respondent’s private vehicle. Respondents also displayed a preference for P&R for social trips, and work trips, over other modes. The time users spent parking at Florida Road was found to not be a significant deterrent to car usage. Socio – demographic variables such as age and gender were not found to have a significant bearing on mode choice probabilities. To ensure a sustainable demand for the P&R system, P&R service characteristics should be optimised, and the utility of using the P&R service should be higher than that of the other modes considered. From the data analysis, it was evident that for a higher patronage, the cost of using the P&R service should be low, or ideally, the service should be free. Shorter headways between pick – ups/ drop – offs should be maintained. Another important aspect is that, to promote the service, adequate advertising on social media is recommended. Aspects such as parking facility location, bus schedules, costs etc should be highly publicised. A high - quality shuttle bus service should also be provided, to further attract prospective users to the service. For the P&R system to be truly successful, P&R should be also introduced with measures to discourage use of parking bays on Florida, and encourage the use of the P&R service. An option considered is to start charging parking costs for the bays on Florida Road, thereby discouraging the use of this parking. The promotion of public transport, coupled with measures that actively discourage private vehicle usage would add to the attraction of the P&R system.
- ItemOpen AccessInvestigating the introduction of economic land use developments to create rail contra-flow using a strategic model: a case study of Johannesburg(2019) Ngobeni, Ntombifuthi; Zuidgeest, MarkSouth Africa is still recovering from the effects of the apartheid government and spatial design that marginalises the demographic that resides at the edges and outskirts of cities. The country has come a long way from where it was, but still has a long way to go to eradicate the effects this fragmentation has had on access to socio economic opportunities. Diversifying land use and creating localised economic hubs may provide a helping hand in reducing the need to travel far distances to seek opportunity, and by extension create an attraction for surrounding communities. The dual role of nullifying past prejudice implemented through strategic spatial design while introducing the perspective of using the relationship between land use and transport to create rail contra flow and localised socio-economic hubs is one that can be achieved strategically. The modelling software that will help to demonstrate the model output of the research, which will be a simulation of contra-flow after the introduction of economic land use developments, is PTV VISUM.
- ItemOpen AccessLessons Learned from Applying an Integrated Land Use Transport Planning Model to Address Issues of Social and Economic Exclusion of Marginalised Groups: The Case of Cape Town, South Africa(2021-01-18) Tamuka Moyo; Hazvinei Tsitsi; Zuidgeest, Mark; van Delden, HedwigThe Group Areas Act of 1950 has resulted in post-apartheid South African cities being characterised by spatial patterns with limited access to social and economic opportunities for the black and coloured population. Typically, high-density low-income housing is located peripherally, while low density high-income housing is located in accessible central areas. With increased rural-to-urban migration, the demand for formal housing has historically surpassed supply, which has increased the growth of informal settlements. Current discourse within South African land use policy suggests that in-situ upgrading of informal housing is a viable response to integrate informal settlements into the formal city. In parallel, it is proposed that new low-income residential areas and employment-generating land uses should be located along transport corridors to improve access to transport, its infrastructure and the opportunities it provides for previously marginalised groups. This study uses Cape Town as a case city to explore two land-use driven development strategies directed at informal settlements and low-income housing. A dynamic land use transport model based on a cellular automata land use model and a four-stage transport model was used to simulate land use and transport changes. Specifically, in-situ upgrading of informal settlements and strategically locating new low-income residential and employment generating land uses along transport corridors were considered. The results from the analysis suggest that in-situ upgrading is a viable option only if new informal settlements are in areas with easy access to economic centres. With regards to low-income housing, targeted interventions aimed at ‘unlocking’ low-income housing activities along transport corridors were found to be useful. However, it was also observed that middle-income residential development and employment generating activities were also attracted to the same corridors, thus, resulting in mixed land uses, which is beneficial but can potentially result in rental bids between low and middle-income earners thus displacing low-income earners away from these areas.
- ItemOpen AccessModelling freeway pedestrian crossing behaviour in Cape Town(2018) Dada, Mercy; Zuidgeest, MarkSouth Africa’s Freeway Management System (FMS) in Cape Town has recorded an alarming increase in pedestrian activity on its freeways in recent years, with a similar trend in (fatal) freeway pedestrian crashes. Both South African and international studies have demonstrated the relevant factors that account for the choices of pedestrians to cross roadways, while few studies have looked at freeway crossing. This study was undertaken to identify and estimate the factors that influence illegal freeway crossing using a discrete choice experiment in Cape Town. It is hypothesized that freeway pedestrian crossing is driven by personal factors and the perceived contribution thereof to the risks associated with the crossing using a footbridge or (illegally) at-grade. Using a stated choice survey including a perceived crossing risk assessment to estimate a series of choice models and based on a 300 participants survey, intercepted along three Cape Town freeways, ordered-responses logit models were developed to estimate risk perception thresholds for both general risk perception (prior to the choice experiment) as well as choice – task specific risk perception. Furthermore, basic and mixed logit models were estimated for freeway crossing choice. Correlations between risk perception and the crossing choices using a Cholesky transformation matrix were established. Finally, the implied relative sensitivities, or tradeoffs, between at-grade and footbridge crossing alternatives were estimated. The findings of this study confirm that, as expected, crossing choice is largely influenced by a combination of built environment, vehicular and pedestrian traffic, as well as socio-demographic characteristics. Among the 8 selected factors, traffic, walking distance and law enforcement presence were observed to be most vital in influencing the risk perception of pedestrians. Results show that younger pedestrians were more risk seeking than their older counterparts and that tenure - the length of time that a pedestrian has lived in Cape Town reduces the risk perception levels of traffic safety. Moreover, pedestrians were more likely to cross with the footbridge rather than directly under normal circumstances. As pedestrian safety is a part of policy interventions in transport, this thesis also suggests an approach to solve the problem of illegal freeway crossing. The results of this study can inform opportunities to counter the upward trend of fatalities and provide suggestions for policy-making, interventions and campaigns that would lead to improved freeway crossing safety.
- ItemOpen AccessModelling road space prioritisation for public transport using AIMSUN: a case study in Durban(2017) Moodley, Lavern; Zuidgeest, MarkThis study exhibits road space prioritisation of three types of public transport systems. The study first goes into a literature review of road space prioritisation and aspects of modelling this. These types of systems were then modelled using a case study of a single corridor in Durban, South Africa. Both a macroscopic modelling and microscopic modelling package were used to model a base year and various public transport scenarios. This was done to illustrate the effects of road space prioritisation along a corridor of the city. The three public transport scenarios performed were: a quality bus scenario, a bus rapid transit system scenario and a mini-bus -taxi scenario. For a certain purpose, a relationship in road capacity could be formed between the macroscopic model and the microscopic model. A costing analysis of these three scenarios was done at the end of the results chapter. It was concluded that the bus rapid transit system was the most feasible public transport system for the corridor based on the demand pattern used in this study for that specific corridor.
- ItemOpen AccessOpportunities for short-sea shipping in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region: evidence based on discrete choice modelling(2019) Konstantinus, Abisai; Zuidgeest, MarkThe thesis investigates the development of short-sea shipping (SSS) in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region by studying the determinants of SSS, the stated choice preference of shippers and freight forwarders and the stated intentions of maritime carriers for SSS. It is purported the introduction of SSS in SADC could reduce socio-environmental problems currently faced such as road damage, road congestion, pollution and transport related accidents. Discrete choice modeling (DCM) is employed as the main methodology to study shipper and carrier behavior. Discrete choice modeling permits the construction of general utility functions incorporating various decision maker characteristics and choice attributes to elicit preference of respondents. The general postulate in DCM is that utility is derived from the properties of things rather than the actual thing per se. A particular benefit of DCM in this study is the elicitation of preference for services and interventions that have not been introduced by SSS. The first step in the study is a theoretical investigation of the potential of SSS in the SADC region. It highlights the policy initiatives, the barriers and enablers related to the development of SSS. The proposed SSS system would have three main roles: to offer an alternative mode of freight transport service between port cities, to serve as the main leg in an intermodal transport network, and to serve feeder services between hub-and-spoke ports. The findings reveal that, SSS has the theoretical potential to work in the SADC region, given the large geographic region, projected freight volumes and customs and trade policies the SADC region is pursuing. The second step in the study involves an a-priori study conducted to develop a general understanding of freight transport in SADC. For this purpose, a uniquely developed online survey was conducted across the SADC region to ascertain in particular: who the decision maker is in terms of freight mode choice; and what the significant attributes that influence freight mode choice are. The results reveal that both the shipper and the freight forwarder are involved in mode choice decisions, however the shipper being the dominant decision maker. Furthermore, the results of the exploded logit model reveal that the top five modal attributes that shippers consider most important are: reliability, transport cost, risk of damage, frequency of service and transit time. These results were subsequently employed to inform the shipper and carrier behavior studies. The third step entails the assessment of shipper behavior, where trip specific mode choice decisions are studied along five intra-urban origin-destination (O-D) paired routes (which would form the study corridors). Three of these corridors considered unimodal SSS, and the two considered intermodal SSS. Unimodal SSS was studied along the following corridors: Cape Town (South Africa)~ Walvis Bay (Namibia), Walvis Bay (Namibia) ~ Luanda (Angola) and Durban (South Africa) ~Beira (Mozambique); and intermodal SSS was studied along the following corridors: Durban (South Africa) ~ Harare (Zimbabwe) and Cape Town (South Africa) ~ Windhoek (Namibia). To develop the choice scenarios, d-efficient stated choice experiments were uniquely developed for each of the corridors with the following key modal attributes systematically varied and analyzed across respondents: service frequency, reliability in terms of arriving on time, expected delay, transport cost and transport time. Subsequently, the following choice models were developed: Binary Logit, Mixed Logit and Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Structure models for the unimodal corridors; and Multinomial Logit, Nested Logit and Cross Nested Logit models for the intermodal corridors. The results highlight that in addition to the modal attributes, mode choice decisions are driven by shipper characteristics and situational characteristics. Moreover, the unimodal SSS study reveals that underlying latent perceptions also influence freight mode choice decisions; while the intermodal SSS study reveal strong correlations in the intermodal SSS alternatives, which requires improved intermodal capability if SSS is to become competitive. The fourth step in the study entail the assessment of maritime carriers preference for SSS given varying levels of maritime conditions that include: dedicated freight volumes, income from freight, port dues discount, terminal handling fees discount and ship registration requirements. The results of an ordered logit model reveal that ship registration provisions and terminal handling charges are the most important to the development of SSS from a carrier side. Moreover, ship registration and maritime cabotage provisions require visitation to boost the participation of carriers in SSS. The last step of the study revisits the modeling results and considers their implications through the estimation of willingness-to-pay and attribute elasticities. The results were then employed to suggest policy actions and interventions to develop SSS.
- ItemOpen AccessPotential market overlap between the Gautrain and the PRASA modernisation program(2019) Laabmayr, Elzane; Zuidgeest, MarkThe Gauteng Province is the only province in South Africa with two rail services, namely Metrorail, operated through the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA), and Rapid Rail, known as the Gautrain, operated by the Gautrain Management Agency (GMA). It is widely known that these rail services do not compete for passengers as they currently serve different markets. Based on passenger survey data, PRASA currently serves the Low and Middle Income markets while the Rapid Rail serves the Upper Middle and High Income markets. PRASA has published their modernisation plans, with a focus on upgrading the Gauteng Metrorail network in the future. It is currently unclear whether these upgrades could result in a rail market overlap between Rapid Rail services and the PRASA Modernisation services. The rail market overlap holds two scenarios, a complimentary overlap and a competitive overlap. A complimentary overlap involves one rail service integrating with another, resulting in a potential increase in patronage for both services. Such an overlap is aligned with the Gauteng 25-Year Integrated Transport Master Plan (GITMP25) vision, whereby the Gauteng public transport system is integrated across multiple modes and services and would thus promote the use of the public transport system. For this overlap to take place, the rail services should serve similar markets, different geographical nodes and integrate at key transfer nodes while not competing for passengers along corridors. A competitive overlap is one where two rail services serve similar, if not the same, markets and nodes and compete for passengers along the transport corridors. Such an overlap does not support the vision of the GITMP25 as a competitive overlap requires fully operational infrastructure for both services, only to divide existing public transport users between the two services. This form of overlap is not sustainable and does not attract new public transport users to the services. In order to investigate whether the Rapid Rail and PRASA Modernisation services will have a competitive overlap, it is necessary to understand the existing and potential future rail operators’ markets, passengers’ travel behaviour and evaluate the services’ geographical overlap. Once the overlap is identified and quantified, the results will be able to guide future transport planning to minimise competitive overlap in rail services and focus on complimentary overlap to help build an integrated public transport system for the Gauteng Province. To demonstrate this, this study evaluated the existing rail services in the Gauteng Province and defined the respective sociodemographic market segmentation and mode choice drivers. A hypothetical rail market was developed for the proposed PRASA Modernisation service, aligning with the proposed service’s upgrade plans. A Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA) tool was developed to align the Rapid Rail, existing Metrorail and proposed PRASA Modernisation rail services with their respective markets in terms of income brackets. Thereafter, MCA was used to determine the overlap in markets between the three rail services. The MCA identified that the PRASA Modernisation service would expand the Metrorail market into the Upper Middle Income category as a result of the service’s expected improvements. The PRASA Modernisation Upper Middle Income market was therefore identified as the potential overlapping market with the current Rapid Rail service. The potential competitive market overlap between the Rapid Rail and PRASA Modernisation rail services were evaluated in terms of geographical market overlap, trip pattern overlap and trip making overlap. The ultimate overlap between the Rapid Rail and the PRASA Modernisation services resulted in 12% of the overall Rapid Rail patronage. Finally, an estimated uptake of the overlapping market was developed using the quantitative mode choice drivers, namely travel time and travel cost. The weightings of these mode choice drivers were aligned with that of the Rapid Rail market and the travel time and travel cost of each rail service was normalised over an average trip distance between Pretoria and Johannesburg CBDs. The estimated service uptake resulted in 58% of the overlapping market remaining to use the Rapid Rail service and 42% of the overlapping market shifting to use the PRASA Modernisation service. However, the Rapid Rail park-and-ride facilities are used by more than 40% of the Rapid Rail passengers. Without this infrastructure at the PRASA Modernisation stations, the potential uptake of the PRASA Modernisation service from existing Rapid Rail services could be diminished from 41% to 25% due to the lack of an integrated Metrorail system with private cars. The final competitive overlapping market between the Rapid Rail and PRASA Modernisation services resulted in 3 – 5% of the total Rapid Rail patronage. The research study concludes that the competitive overlap between the Rapid Rail and PRASA Modernisation services would be negligible as these services will continue to serve different markets. It is therefore recommended for the PRASA Modernisation program to be implemented to assist in the much needed rejuvenation of the Gauteng Metrorail service. It was further recommended that the PRASA Modernisation program incorporates integrated feeder and distributor services, strengthening the attractiveness of the PRASA Modernisation service and aiding in the GITMP25’s vision of developing an integrated and efficient transport system in Gauteng.
- ItemOpen AccessQuantifying MyCiTi supply usage via Big Data and Agent Based Modelling(2017) Willenberg, Darren; Zuidgeest, MarkThe MyCiTi is currently generating large volumes of raw transactional information in the form of commuter smartcard transactions, which can be considered Big Data. Agent Based modelling (ABM) has been applied internationally as a means of deriving actionable intelligence from Big Data. It is proposed that ABM can be used to unlock the hidden potential within the aforementioned data. This paper demonstrates how to go about developing and calibrating a MATSim-based ABM to analyse AFC data. It is found that data formatting algorithms are critical in the preparation of data for modelling activities. These algorithms are highly complex, requiring significant time investment prior to development. Furthermore, the development of appropriate ABM calibration parameters requires careful consideration in terms of appropriate data collection, simulation testing, and justification. This study serves as strong evidence to suggest that ABM is an appropriate analysis technique for MyCiTi data systems. Validation exercises reveal that ABM is able to calculate on board bus usage and system behaviour with a strong degree of accuracy (R-squared 0.85). It is however recommended that additional research be conducted into more detailed calibration activities, such as fine-tuning agent behaviour during simulation. Ultimately this research study achieves its explorative objectives of model development and testing, and paves a way forward for future research into the practical applications of Big Data and ABM in the South African context.
- ItemOpen AccessQuantifying stormwater pollutants and the efficacy of sustainable drainage systems on the R300 highway, Cape Town(2017) Robertson, Abby Jane; Armitage, Neil P; Zuidgeest, MarkStormwater provides a direct link between urban infrastructure and the urbanised natural environment. In particular, highway drainage presents a high risk of pollution when compared to other urban land use areas (Ellis et al., 2012); introducing heavy metals, suspended solids and hydrocarbons to urban waterways. This research investigated runoff from the R300 highway, located in the greater Cape Town area. The City of Cape Town Management of Urban Stormwater Impacts Policy requires the treatment and attenuation of stormwater from developments within the city, and proposes Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) as a means to achieve this (CSRM, 2009b). SuDS are structural and process controls that attenuate surface drainage, improve runoff water quality, provide amenity and deliver ecosystem services. This study characterized the R300 runoff through a sampling program and modelling exercise in order to provide an indication of the ability of SuDS to manage highway runoff in South Africa. Sediment and runoff samples were collected from the road surface and an undeveloped parcel of land adjacent to the highway. The sampling results showed that heavy metals, suspended solids and phosphorus are present in significantly greater concentrations in road runoff compared to rainwater from the same area. The concentration of aluminium, copper, lead, zinc and phosphorus exceed the Department of Water and Sanitation's water quality guidelines for aquatic ecosystems in excess of 1000%. The concentration of heavy metals, phosphorus and fats, oils and greases was significantly greater in road sediment compared to sediment from the surrounding area. Barring copper, all contaminant concentrations in the road surface sediment are less than the maximum concentration required to protect ecosystem health. The R300 rainfall-runoff response was modelled in PCSWMM to evaluate the performance of SuDS such as infiltration trenches, bioretention areas and swales for managing highway runoff in terms of quantity and quality. The modelling exercise showed SuDS to be a viable means to attain the City of Cape Town's stormwater objectives, provided that SuDS are implemented in treatment trains along the entire road length.
- ItemOpen AccessShould the City of Cape Town plan for fully autonomous vehicles?(2021) Attwood, Craig; Behrens, Roger; Zuidgeest, MarkBackground The City of Cape Town's Comprehensive Integrated Transport Plan (CITP) 2018 to 2023 identifies public transport as the key driver to changing the spatial form of Cape Town, with all its urban inefficiencies and social inequality. A key element to building sustainable communities is the establishment of Transit Oriented Developments (TODs) at the right locations along the rail and BRT transport corridors. However, the Metrorail railway service in Cape Town, which should be the backbone of the public transport system, has collapsed because of issues with safety, reliability, vandalism and comfort. This has forced commuters to opt for other modes of transport, mainly private vehicles and minibus taxis (MBTs), which has contributed to Cape Town becoming the most congested city in South Africa. Autonomous vehicles have been touted as the elixir for the problems of road safety and congestion. Along with their ability to find the most efficient routes they are anticipated, inter alia, to be able to free up road space by decreasing the following distance between vehicles Aim The aim of this dissertation is to describe an autonomous vehicle, review the current status of the industry in the evolution towards driverless cars, and predict how autonomous vehicles will be able to penetrate and impact the road transport network of South Africa, with a particular emphasis on Cape Town and the MBT industry. Method The research method included a literature study of the research and development happening in the Global North and how this would benefit South Africa, along with a Delphi Survey of a panel of experts in the field of South African road transport. Findings The literature review and Delphi survey produced the following propositions: • The high-stakes competition between car manufacturers and technology companies to produce the first driverless car that will be legally allowed to drive on all roads, will ensure that this will happen – however the timeline is not so clear. • When it does happen, the condition of the road reserve will be one of the factors in preventing driverless cars from operating freely. The quality of the road infrastructure, only 20% South Africa's roads are paved, and the unpredictability of other road users such as pedestrians, cyclists and, in South Africa, livestock, will mean that there will probably always have to be someone behind the wheel of an autonomous vehicle even if it is legally self-driving. • The MBT industry in South Africa does not receive an operating subsidy from the Government but it is an extremely powerful and influential informal public transport provider, often at odds with the lawmakers and the traffic authorities. It is important that the Government and the MBT industry aim to form a working partnership so that the road transport industry can take advantage of the obvious benefits of this new technology. • Because the Government is ensuring that public transport is given priority over private transport, it is unlikely that it will consider the huge investment in the road infrastructure that is needed to support self-driving vehicles. But, if the Government and the MBT industry could find a way for the MBT industry to become a formal part of the public transport system, it may then consider portioning some of its public transport budget for road infrastructure upgrades to support autonomous MBTs. • The evolutionary road to fully autonomous vehicles (Level 5) is long. There are already cars on the road in the Global North that have autonomy Level 2, and some between Level 2 and 3 (Level 2+), with technology that allows the cars to change lanes, keep a safe distance from surrounding cars, etc.. As communication is from vehicle to vehicle, Level 2 and 2+ vehicles do not require the huge capital outlay for the infrastructure and communications network that would be necessary for Level 3, 4 and 5 vehicles. No MBT in South Africa has any form of autonomy, and, with 3 out of the 36 people killed daily on the road involved in accidents with MBTs, it is imperative that the Government finds a way for the industry to benefit from the safety aspects of autonomy Levels 2 and 2+. • One of the major threats of the 4th Industrial Revolution is job losses. Historically, MBT, e-hailing and metered taxi drivers have been known to violently defend their livelihoods when faced by competition for their passengers. The arrival of driverless vehicles will certainly be a threat to their jobs, and it is likely that the drivers will resort to any means possible to prevent this from happening. However, prevailing conditions, such as the poor condition of the road reserve and the lack of government resources and financial input, means that these changes are not imminent, and, in the meantime, structures can be put in place to soften the impact that autonomy will have on job losses in the taxi industry. Conclusions Should the City of Cape Town plan for fully AVs? Yes. Features found in Levels 1 and 2 should become mandatory in all vehicles on the road. Planning can be done in phases, initially to support vehicles at Levels 1, 2 and 2+, by improving the road infrastructure such as lane markings and defining kerbsides, and then, more improvements for Level 3 and the finally for Levels 4 and 5 installing the telecommunications network and upgrading the whole road reserve. Cyclists and pedestrians are a major hinderance in the evolution of AVs, their unpredictable behaviour is very difficult for the vehicle's software to process. NMT is an important part of the future of Cape Town's transport system and the upgrades and extensions to pathways should be carried out with the intention of limiting the interaction with AVs. There are some benefits for South Africa being behind in the adoption of AVs in that they can learn from mistakes made by the many international cities that are presently going through the roll out of AVs. In the meantime, priority should be given by the City, to working alongside the Government, to restoring and improving the rail service to a level that will attract commuters back to this mode of transport to reduce the unsustainable pressure on the roads. Although the evolution to driverless cars is unpredictable, it is important that all levels of government engage with as many stakeholders and affected parties as possible before putting legislation in place. This is an important time in the history of road transport and every effort needs to be made to get the maximum benefit out of all the positive impacts that this technology will bring.
- ItemOpen AccessThe integration of informal minibus-taxi transport services into formal public transport planning and operations - A data driven approach(2018) Du Preez, Jacobus Frederick; Zuidgeest, Mark; Behrens, RogerThe MiniBus Taxi (MBT) mode is poorly understood by planning and operational authorities, yet plays a big role in the economies of developing countries transporting the workforce to and from their places of employment and offering employment to thousands in the operations of these services, as well as the numerous rank-side services and amenities offered to patrons. In recent years, research focussed on mapping paratransit services, including MBTs, in cities of the developing world has contributed significantly to the understanding of the mode in terms of its spatial extent in its respective service areas. In South Africa, experience has shown that the wholesale replacement of MBTs with scheduled services is an unattainable goal. Instead, planning authorities and researchers have, more recently, shown interest in investigating feasible methods of integrating the scheduled and unscheduled services as hybrid planned-trunk and paratransit-feeder networks. The objective of this research is to present the case for simple methods of planning and carrying out onboard surveys of paratransit services to classify and to better understand the operations of individual routes, identified route classes, the network as a whole, as well as revealed passenger demand for the services and, ultimately, how this information can be wielded in the planning and implementation of hybrid routes or networks. The data central to this study consist of onboard captured MBT data, which was collected with a public transport data capturing application using GPS enabled smartphones in the City of Cape Town from April to August 2017 as part of a City of Cape Town’s Transport and Urban Development Authority (TDA) data collection project. The purpose of the project was to clarify the actual extent of MBT services within the City and to improve the representation of the MBT mode in the City of Cape Town’s travel demand model. An Android smartphone application, purpose-built for collecting operational information onboard public transport vehicles, was used to collect spatial and temporal data on the operations of a sample of active MBT routes in Cape Town. The application, which saw some functionality updates specifically for the project, was used to collect the following information per MBT trip: · Location of stops; · Time of arrival and departure at stops; · Number of passengers boarding and alighting at each stop; · The relative boarding and alighting stop of each specific passenger; · The amount paid in fare money per passenger at each stop; · The actual path travelled by the vehicle as a GPS route trace; and · The origin and destination route description of each route captured. It is estimated that there are more than 800 active and operational routes in the Cape Town. The objective of the data collection project was to survey each one of these routes for a prespecified number of trips. As the project was still underway when this research was carried out, the information listed above collected for a sample of trips for 278 routes (556 if the reverse direction is considered as a unique route designation) formed the basis of this study. During the course of this study, the analyses of these data have shown that while the operational characteristics of individual routes are relatively consistent and stable, it is possible to distinguish between different service typologies within the larger route network. From the raw data structure listed above, the operational characteristics that were calculated for each trip and aggregated at the route level included: · Trip and route distances; · Average operating speeds; · Travel times; · Number of stops per trip; · Load factors between stops along the route; and · Fare rates and trip revenues. In addition to the identification of the operational characteristics of the MBT network, service classes and routes, the outcomes of the study include providing a framework of methods for the collection, extraction, cleansing, analysis and visualisation of the data. It also includes the identification of metrics which are key in describing the difference in service types. The descriptive operational characteristics that were calculated for each trip record, inbound and outbound per route, were evaluated to establish whether they can be used to determine if different service typologies can be observed in the data. It was found that simple k-means clustering procedures may be used to classify the routes into separate, distinguishable service classes. For the purpose of this study, it was decided, nominally, that the classification should be executed for three classes. Three was subjectively considered a good value to be inclusive of traditional Trunk and Feeder or Distribution, route types as well as the possibility of the existence of a yet to be defined third type. The clustering procedures were carried out for different combinations of the operational variables for which the most consistent results were obtained for the combination distance – stop density1 – passenger turnover. Analysis of the within-class operational characteristics indicates that these three service classes clearly differ in terms of their stop frequencies, distances, speeds and their spatial network coverage. The study furthermore provides evidence that the understanding of the MBT network and sub-networks of service classes within this network, including its interaction with other public transport modes and infrastructure, provides planning and operating authorities with key information for effectively planning and implementing hybrid networks. Finally, the study demonstrates many additional insights can be garnered from these data by implementing improved statistical sampling and survey methods at the route level and by analysing aspects of the data that were not considered central to the research. These aspects include route adherence studies, origin – destination studies and methods of expanding the onboard data samples accurately by marrying it with data collected during static rank departure and arrival counts. Ultimately, the study shows that an unprecedented knowledge of the operations of MBT routes and networks may be obtained through detailed yet simple analysis of onboard data and that this knowledge may be very useful in the planning and operations of integrated public transport networks.
- ItemOpen AccessThe use of mobile phone technology in the collection of user perceptions of walkability along pedestrian routes from public transport in Cape Town and New Delhi(2016) Wasswa, Banele; Zuidgeest, Mark; Vanderschuren, MarianneBackground: Cities in developing countries are upgrading their public transport at unprecedented rates in efforts to create transportation systems that are more sustainable and equitable. South Africa and India are seeing massive investments in features that are improving operational characteristics of public transport systems. However, more effort will need to be expended in improving public transport access/egress conditions, in order to ensure that public transport is a competitive alternative to door to door motorised transport trips. Particular attention will need to be paid to non-motorised transport, as it is the most common means of access/egress for people in the Global South, despite conditions for pedestrians being uncomfortable and a threat to their safety and security. Traditional methods of evaluating the accessibility of public transport stations have been found to be overly mechanistic. Through improved operationalisation of built environment factors and crowd sourcing user perceptions, a better understanding of how supportive the built environment is for walking can be achieved. Study details: This study presents the following: 1. The development and testing of an Android mobile phone application, along with its associated online dashboard. The mobile phone application allows for the collection of data on the pedestrian experience and is a shift away from the mechanistic approach to understanding pedestrian challenges. Using the application, users rate their walking environment along dimensions of safety, security, infrastructure and comfort, while geo-tagging walking routes. The dashboard is used to store and visualise the users' perception data and multimedia captured using the mobile phones. 2. A proposed spatial analysis method, using Spatial Clustering Algorithms for analysing data captured using the mobile phone application. As crowd sourced datasets are very large, filtering approaches may not be capable of distinguishing between outliers and clusters of high/low ratings. Thus, more robust analysis methods are required in order to extract meaningful insights. 3. The piloting of the application and proposed spatial analysis method in Cape Town and New Delhi. Results of pilot studies: Six public transport locations across Cape Town and New Delhi were chosen for the pilot studies. Survey facilitators, with the application preloaded on mobile phones, intercepted public transport users travelling along their egress trips. Respondents were asked to make use of the application to report on their perception of the walking environment as they were escorted to their destination.