OpenUCT :: Browsing by Author "Van Walbeek, Corne"

Browsing by Author "Van Walbeek, Corne"

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Open Access
A critical analysis of the accuracy of the country forecasts as prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
(2007) Durham, Kate Saranne; Van Walbeek, Corne; Simons, Mary
This thesis draws attention to the complexities involved in forecasting economic indicators. A literature review examines the general use of forecasts, errors within forecasts and various methods of analysing the accuracy of forecasts. The focus of this paper is on the testing and measuring of forecast accuracy within the Economist Intelligence Unit Country Forecasts, in particular the forecast accuracy of GOP and Inflation. This is carried out through the assessment of four a priori hypotheses 1) High Income Country Forecasts are consistently more accurate than those forecasts made for countries in the Low Income Category. 2) The accuracy of forecasts decreases the more distant the forecast horizon becomes, therefore Current-Year (t) Forecasts will outperform One-Year-Ahead (t+1) Forecasts. 3) The EIU Forecasts outperform No-Change-Forecasts as measured by the Theil's U-Statistic. 4) The EIU can forecast turning points better than a Random Probability method of forecasting can. The Tests used to evaluate the above hypotheses are the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Theil U-Statistic and Turning Point Directional Analysis. The conclusion reached by this thesis is that the accuracy of forecasts decreases the more distant the forecast horizon becomes, therefore it can be said that Current-Year (t) Forecasts will outperform One-Year-Ahead (t+1) Forecasts. Additionally, the EIU Forecasts do outperform No-Change-Forecasts as measured by the Theil's U-Statistic. Therefore the EIU can forecast turning points better than a Random Probability method of forecasting can. Finally, this thesis concludes that there is little evidence to suggest that High Income Country Forecasts are consistently more accurate than those forecasts made for countries in the Low Income Category.
Open Access
The economic behaviour of poly-drug users in the Western Cape: an analysis of pathways, prices, location and gender
(2017) Melis, Monique; Van Walbeek, Corne; Howell, Simon
The use of illicit substances in South Africa has implications for the health and well-being of both the user and society at large. Improved data on the markets for illicit psychostimulants are imperative for supporting policy efforts to manage their use and provide support structures for those affected. This thesis is one of the few detailed studies on the South African drug market using quantitative methods. It expands on what is known about illicit substance markets by addressing aspects of the following questions: (1) What is known about the nature and scope of the methamphetamine, methaqualone and heroin markets? (2) What is known about the characteristics of poly-substance consumers? (3) What does the sequential pattern of substance initiation look like? (4) Why do poly-substance consumers report different inter- and intra-regional drug prices? (5) What issues need further research? As a first step towards answering these questions, a dataset of 337 poly-substance users from the Western Cape was analysed. Survey participants were sampled using a respondent-driven sampling technique – an approach useful for sampling hidden populations and efficiently, adjusting for associated sampling bias. The study found that methamphetamine prices tend to fluctuate across a heterogeneous consumer base, with a significant discount paid by females who were observed, on average, to pay 25% less for this substance. Methaqualone has less variation across consumers but showed significant price dissimilarities between the two sites included in the analysis, with respondents from Greenpoint paying, on average, 18% higher prices. This indicates a lack of pricing information being shared between the two sites. Heroin showed variation across consumers, although the data on this substance were limited. Furthermore, the results show that substance markets operate differently across intra-city locations. The key rationale for this include high transit costs incurred by suppliers (as drugs cannot be transported openly), high search costs incurred by consumers and the prevalence of information asymmetries between regions. This study brings light and understanding to a traditionally hidden market and highly dangerous market; however, far more data on the South African and African drug market is needed.
Open Access
The economics of tobacco control in low- and middle-income countries
(2011) Blecher, Evan; Van Walbeek, Corne
Global best practice in tobacco control policy is anchored by the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control which recommends that countries use, amongst other things, tax increases and advertising bans to reduce tobacco consumption. Furthermore, this is supplemented by various policy documents and technical manuals produced by the World Health Organisation and the World Bank which provide a more thorough justification of these policy measures. This thesis seeks to examine the application of these tobacco control policy measures on tobacco consumption in low and middle-income countries. The thesis focuses on tax policy in low- and middle-income countries by moving the metric from price to affordability (which considers price and income simultaneously). This is important since many low- and middle-income countries are growing rapidly and price increases may not be reducing consumption.
Open Access
The economics of tobacco control in some African countries
(2015) Chelwa, Grieve; Van Walbeek, Corne
This thesis examines some aspects of the economics of tobacco control in South Africa, Uganda and Zambia. The first part of the thesis examines whether tobacco expenditure displaces (or "crowds out") expenditure on other goods and services within Zambian households. In so doing, I make two contributions to the literature. Firstly, I use expenditure data from a low-income sub-Saharan African country where most households are poor. Secondly, I use the standard instrumental variable used in the literature, the adult sex ratio, to instrument for the tobacco smoking status of Zambian households. But unlike previous studies, I relax the strict exclusion restriction and allow for the adult sex ratio to be correlated with the error term. That is, I allow the instrumental variable to be imperfect. I consider the relaxation of the exclusion restriction to be reasonable given that the adult sex ratio is just as likely to influence tobacco expenditure as it is to influence expenditure on other goods and services. Even after relaxing the exclusion restriction, I, however, confirm many findings in the literature. For instance, I find that smoking households allocate less expenditure towards food, schooling, clothing, water, electricity, transportation, equipment maintenance and remittances. In addition, the crowding out patterns I uncover are in some ways related to the geographical location of households which in turn is related to socioeconomic status in Zambia. In sum, the results in this part of the thesis show that a broader accounting of tobacco's costs in Zambia should include other costs over and above mortality and morbidity considerations. We know from several studies that tax and price measures are the single most effective policy tool for reducing tobacco consumption. However, most of this evidence is based on studies conducted in developed countries with very few published studies on African countries. The second part of my thesis, therefore, contributes to the recent literature that uses expenditure data to estimate price and expenditure elasticities of demand for tobacco products in Low-and Middle-Income countries. I use expenditure data from Uganda and exploit the fact that prices of cigarettes vary across geographical space. I also adjust my demand elasticity estimates for measurement error and quality heterogeneity. I find price and expenditure elasticities that are in line with international evidence. For instance, I find that cigarette demand is expected to decline by between 3% and 4%, at the very least, for every 10% increase in cigarette prices. The authorities in Uganda ca n, therefore, reduce cigarette consumption by increasing excise taxes on cigarettes without reducing tax revenues. The third and final part of my thesis evaluates the impact on per capita cigarette consumption of South Africa's consistent excise tax increases that began in 1994. The tax rises have overtime translated into large increases in the inflation-adjusted price of cigarettes. For instance, the average real price per pack increased by 110% between 1994 and 2004. The main challenge in conducting pol icy evaluations is that of creating a credible counterfactual. That is, we want to know what would have happened to per capita cigarette consumption in South Africa if the excise tax increases had not occurred. This is particularly important in the case of South Africa because per capita cigarette consumption had already started declining by the time the tax rises started. I, therefore, use a transparent and data-driven technique, the Synthetic Control method, to create a credible counterfactual of South Africa's cigarette consumption after 1994. The counterfactual is constructed as a linear combination of the per capita cigarette consumption of countries that are similar to South Africa but did not engage in large-scale tobacco control efforts over the peri od 1994 to 2004. I find that per capita cigarette consumption would not have continued declining in the absence of the consistent tax rises that began in 1994. Specifically, I find that by 2004, per capita cigarette consumption was 36% lower than it would have been had the tax increases not occurred. This result is robust to several falsification (or placebo) exercises. Based on these results, I conclude that countries in Africa can achieve substantial reductions in cigarette consumption and prevent uptake from new smokers by consistently increasing excise taxes in the manner of South Africa.
Open Access
The economics of tobacco control in South Africa
(2005) Van Walbeek, Corne
Metadata only
How does a change in the excise tax on beer impact beer retail prices in South Africa?
(2017-06-06) Russell, Caitlan; Van Walbeek, Corne
Open Access
The societal costs of methamphetamine use in Western Cape Province
(2016) Darsamo, Arnalda Vanessa; Van Walbeek, Corne; Ross, Hana
Methamphetamine (meth) use results in various costs accruing to the meth user, society, and government. Internal and external costs of the pandemic are widespread, affecting the healthcare and social welfare systems, policing, private security, and the judicial and corrective services system. This study quantifies these costs for the Western Cape; identifying the magnitude of the cost of illness and additional social costs by category and determines which interventions are likely to reduce these overall costs. This study used a combination of a top-down and a bottom-up approach for the costing of various categories. The meth prevalence rate used was derived from the number of primary meth users who sought meth treatment in 2013 as reported to SACENDU. Additional data on expenditure and costs were obtained from government annual reports, personal interviews and data from previous studies.
Open Access
Socioeconomics of tobacco use in the Southern African Customs Union
(2014) Nyabongo, Linda; Van Walbeek, Corne
Tobacco consumption has long been a significant health concern. This is because it is one of the significant causes of premature death, as a result of various types of diseases that arise due to the use of both smoking and smokeless tobacco. Tobacco use has been found to be associated significantly with socioeconomic status, and particularly, tobacco use has been found to be higher amongst individuals with lower socioeconomic status. This paper studies the relationship between socioeconomic factors and tobacco consumption for men and women from countries in the Southern African Customs Union, using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland; and the National Income Dynamics Study for South Africa. This paper finds that among both men and women, cigarette use is higher in urban areas, while the use of chewing tobacco, snuff, and pipes is generally higher in rural areas. Also, this paper finds that tobacco use is generally lower the higher the educational attainment, while the prevalence of tobacco use is found to be higher in the older age groups compared to the younger age groups.
Metadata only
Some determinants of Academic Exclusion and Graduation in three faculties at UCT
(2017-06-06) Rooney, Christopher; Van Walbeek, Corne
Open Access
South African economic issues
(2012) Van Walbeek, Corne
Lecture series coordinated by Associate Professor Corne van Walbeek, Head of School of Economics, University of Cape Town. This series of audio lectures will be of interest to those who wish to learn more about the current economic climate of South Africa.
Open Access
A study of the causes of the real net-of-tax cigarette price increases in South Africa (1990-2012)
(2014) Nyabongo, Diana; Van Walbeek, Corne; Edwards, Lawrence
From the 1990's onwards the cigarette industry in South Africa has imposed substantial increases in the real net-of-tax price of cigarettes. Past research has presented various possible reasons for this increase, however none of this research has incorporated the effect that the international environment might have on price setting in the cigarette industry through tariffs. Using a Bertrand duopolistic model this paper presents a theoretical model to explain the effect that tariffs, and other relevant causal factors such as excise taxation might have on the real net-of-tax price. The relationships that exist between the real net-of-tax price and causal factors are then subjected to a preliminary analysis using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model. The results indicate that there is a relationship between the price of cigarettes and various causal factors. The results do not however substantiate what caused the real net-of-tax price increase from 1990's onwards. The paper attributes this to various limitations in the preliminary analysis process and suggests how these could be rectified. The paper hence presents a useful foundation to understanding the nature of the existing relationships between the price of cigarettes and various causal factors and how best these can be modelled.
Open Access
Tobacco Excise Simulation Model (TETSiM)
(2010) Van Walbeek, Corne
Tool for tobacco control advocates and government officials considering the impact of a change in tobacco excise taxes on a number of variables. Useful simulation for considering impact of changes in tobacco excise taxes on a number of variables. By changing some of the input parameters, you can see how this affects the output values.
Open Access
Using survival analysis to identify the determinants of academic exclusion and graduation in three faculties at UCT
(2015) Rooney, Christopher; Van Walbeek, Corne
University graduation rates have become increasingly important for institutions and policymakers alike. Academic exclusion, or other forms of withdrawal from university, represents a substantial loss to the individual, the institution and broader society. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of graduation and academic exclusion in UCT's Commerce, Engineering and Built Environment and Science faculties using survival analysis. The data consisted of 11 959 students who registered for a degree in one of the three faculties between 2006 and 2013. The results suggest that there are large differences in graduation and academic exclusion rates between different groups of students. Factors which increased the likelihood of graduating were being female, white, ineligible for financial aid, proficient in English, attending a Quintile 5 or independent school and obtained good high school grades. On the other hand, males who are on financial aid, non English-speaking, attend poorly resourced schools and achieved low school grades are more likely to be academically excluded. Further findings indicate that, relative to the Commerce faculty, the Science and EBE faculties exclude a substantially greater proportion of poorly performing students in the first and second years. The Commerce Faculty excludes relatively few poorly performing students in the first two years, but the exclusion rate increases sharply in the third and subsequent years. The main policy implication of these results is that the secondary schooling system needs to improve greatly in order for a larger proportion of students to graduate at university.
Open Access
Waterpipe tobacco smoking among university students in the Western Cape Province of South Africa : differences and similarities to cigarette smoking
(2014) Kruger, Lara M; Van Walbeek, Corne
The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence rates of current and ever waterpipe use and investigate the associated correlates, paying particular attention to the perceptions and beliefs about waterpipe’s adverse health effects as well as its social acceptability. In addition the study aimed to compare the results with the prevalence rates of current and ever cigarette use among the same study group. An online, anonymous, cross-sectional survey was administered via email to all students at the four universities within the Western Cape Province of South Africa during September 2013. 4578 students completed the survey (4.3% response rate). 10.6% [n= 484] of the sample were current waterpipe users while 67.1% [n= 3101] were ever users of waterpipe. 61.1% of current smokers smoked waterpipe to socialise with less than 1% of smokers smoking alone. The majority of waterpipe smokers thought waterpipe use was less harmful, less addictive and more accessible than cigarette smoking. 96.1% [n= 465] of current users felt waterpipe was socially acceptable compared to only 69.9% [n= 1862] of non-smokers. Factors significantly associated with increased odds of being a current smoker were: Coloured race, increased quantity of alcoholic drinks drunk per drinking day, increased frequency of binge drinking and the perception that waterpipe was not difficult to quit. Alcohol consumption patterns apart from problem drinking were associated with waterpipe use. More than half of current waterpipe smokers were not current cigarette smokers [n= 273/484]. Waterpipe smoking is more socially acceptable and therefore more widespread among students in all faculties, genders, ages, physical activity levels and economic brackets than cigarette smoking. This is likely a result of the lack of knowledge about the health risks of waterpipe, the taste of the flavoured sweetened tobacco, and the perception that waterpipe is socially acceptable. While there is overlap between current cigarette and waterpipe users, waterpipe users are distinct from cigarette users. Therefore policy aimed at cessation needs to be targeted towards all students, using a two-pronged approach focusing on the knowledge and beliefs of students and the legislative aspect of waterpipe tobacco.

Browsing by Author "Van Walbeek, Corne"

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