Browsing by Author "Thuiller, Wilfried"

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    The effects of environment and niche on the distributions of dwarf chameleons, present and future
    (2007) Houniet, Darren; Underhill, Les; Thuiller, Wilfried; Tolley, Krystal A; Midgley, Guy
    The niche and niche breadth of Dwarf Chameleons, Bradypodion, was assessed in terms of broad scale climatic factors. A niche-based modelling method was then used to construct present and future habitat suitability maps for 2050 and 2080, for species in the genus. Additionally, the relationship between environment and morphology was analysed for a representative Bradypodion species, the Cape Dwarf Chameleon, B. pumilum. The niche and niche breadth of species and phylogenetic clades were analysed and described via an ordination technique, the outlying mean index (OMI) analysis. Maxent (v2.3), a presence only niche modelling method, proved very useful in the construction of present and future habitat suitability maps for species within the genus. For analysis of the correspondence between environment and morphology for B. pumilum, regression trees were employed. Rainfall seasonality and maximum annual temperatures were shown to strongly effect the current distributions of the genus Bradypodion at both the species and clade level. Additionally, as closely related species inhabited similar environmental niches, the genus was shown to display a degree of niche conservatism. All species and clades were shown to respond to climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, but responses were individualistic. However, most demonstrated range contractions under predicted climate scenarios. Additionally, a strong correlation (p < 0.05) was found between the morphology of B. pumilum and its environment. Environmental factors explained over 40% of the variation in snout-vent length and tail length, and over 20% of the variation in head width and head height, thus supporting the hypothesis of a correspondence between vegetation and morphology in Bradypodion. These results have provided an understanding of the relationship between Bradypodion and their environments that could provide valuable information regarding their ecology. Additionally, the habitat suitability maps for 2050 and 2080 could prove useful in the construction of any future conservation plans for these species. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis of a correspondence between environmental factors and morphological traits within the genus Bradypodion.
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    Stochastic Species Turnover and Stable Coexistence in a Species-Rich, Fire-Prone Plant Community
    (Public Library of Science, 2007) Thuiller, Wilfried; Slingsby, Jasper A.; Privett, Sean D. J.; Cowling, Richard M.
    Understanding the mechanisms that maintain diversity is important for managing ecosystems for species persistence. Here we used a long-term data set to understand mechanisms of coexistence at the local and regional scales in the Cape Floristic Region, a global hotspot of plant diversity. We used a dataset comprising 81 monitoring sites, sampled in 1966 and again in 1996, and containing 422 species for which growth form, regeneration mode, dispersal distance and abundances at both the local (site) and meta-community scales are known. We found that species presence and abundance were stable at the meta-community scale over the 30 year period but highly unstable at the local scale, and were not influenced by species' biological attributes. Moreover, rare species were no more likely to go extinct at the local scale than common species, and that alpha diversity in local communities was strongly influenced by habitat. We conclude that stochastic environmental fluctuations associated with recurrent fire buffer populations from extinction, thereby ensuring stable coexistence at the meta-community scale by creating a “neutral-like” pattern maintained by niche-differentiation.