Browsing by Author "Schrire, Robert A"

Now showing 1 - 9 of 9
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    Approaches to the problems of political risk in foreign direct investment
    (1993) Howard, Christopher O; Schrire, Robert A
    This thesis examines the challenges multinational enterprises face from political risk when making and operating foreign direct investments. The thesis considers political risk and a wide variety of approaches to its analysis and provides insight into the process of foreign direct investment, the nature of the political threat facing it, foreign investment decision making by multinationals, and the tools developed in the commercial, academic, and governmental arenas to avoid and combat the effects of political risk. In essence, the thesis addresses a business application of theories and methodologies used in political studies. The first hypothesis is: if political risk is properly understood as a phenomenon of the political environment, then it a) defies direct quantification and b) can be explained as a series of discrete elements which can be analyzed separately. The second hypothesis is: if political risk is properly understood as a series of non-quantifiable elements, analysis of political risk cannot be depended upon alone to protect multinational enterprises from political risk in foreign direct investment. The first hypothesis is addressed through a critical review and consideration of business and political risk literature. Two analytical tools are developed in this process: a ladder of cognition consisting of a series of conditions of knowledge which can be held regarding a specific risk, and indicating the type and approximate accuracy of analysis which can be undertaken of such risk; and a representation of the political risk equation as a two stage process consisting of an abstract (environmental) risk event and a discrete effect which the event may or may not have on a specific investment. The second hypothesis is addressed through a critical review of methods of political risk analysis including "qualitative" approaches with roots in traditional studies and "quantitative" approaches derived from statistical analysis and behavioralist-based determinism. Critiques of each approach include operational strengths and weaknesses, performance histories (when applicable), conceptual and practical capabilities from the perspective of the analytical tools described above, and theoretical strengths and weaknesses from the perspective of the political studies discipline. Both hypotheses are supported and the thesis concludes by reviewing tools which can be used by multinationals to manage and mitigate the effects of political risk and considering additional academic work in this arena which would be useful in developing this application of political studies.
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    The broadcasting of politics in South Africa
    (1990) Silke, Daniel; Cooper, Alan A; Schrire, Robert A
    This dissertation studies the broadcasting of politics in South Africa from 1920 to the end of the P. W. Botha era in 1989; that is, the reaction of radio and television to the changing political environment. Since 1948 South Africa's broadcasting system has increasingly been influenced by the ruling National Party as they strengthened their authority. This follows the Lasswell communications model which emphasizes the role of the controller in the communications flow as well as Fagen's and Siebert's description of authoritarianism as a national political system. A study of the historical legacy of broadcasting in South Africa clearly shows an authoritarian orientation. This is accomplished through an investigation utilizing historical material including Tomaselli as well as press reports and Hansard. The advent of television has seen this maintained in a variety of forms. The key question confronting the reader is whether or not there exists change away from the authoritarian model to a more liberalistic trend. The author details a number of visible inconsistencies and anomalies that are present both within radio and television. These are shown to markedly contradict with the control model of the past and highlight fundamental shifts in the media orientation. These contradictions are a reflection of the socio-political pressures that have recently emerged to influence the National Party. This is a function of the reforming of their past ideology as well as of internal economic advances and political upheavals which increase the influence of non-State elements upon the electronic media as depicted in the De Fleur model. The broadcasting system is increasingly shown to reflect an inclusive picture adapting to the political and economic realities in which it operates. The emerging trend moves away from authoritarianism in a more liberal and pluralistic direction.
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    Globalisation: The Political Dynamics
    (AOSIS, 2001) Schrire, Robert A
    Globalisation is a multidimensional phenomenon and should be conceptualised as a process rather than an outcome. Economic, political, cultural and societal elements are involved in the complex set of interactions we can define as globalisation. However, a key factor, which is frequently ignored is the importance of politics in shaping and guiding this process. For example economic liberalisation and deregulation, the form which economic globalisation has thus far taken, did not emerge from impersonal market and technological forces. Governments, especially those of the United States and Great Britain, followed explicit policies of currency controls relaxation, the reduction in trade barriers, and the retreat in the role of the state in the economy generally. Despite the power of the economic forces thus released, politics remains a key potential player and globalisation is not necessarily irreversible. Given the indeterminacy of the outcomes of globalisation, four alternative theories of the future are presented and analysed.
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    The identification and measurement of political risk : toward a firm-centric approach
    (1995) Andrews, Richard Quentin Dunkley; Schrire, Robert A; Seegers, Annette
    Political risk analysis is the study of economic and social discontinuities and changes which result in speculative constraints and opportunities for transnational business. This paper explores the problem of establishing definitional congruity at conceptual and operational levels of analysis and recommends the adoption of firm-centric approaches to assessing risk originating in the political environment. Conclusions are arrived at by means of partial induction, based on a rigorous comparative examination of a comprehensive body of literature. The first section delineates various fiduciary frameworks, historical and definitional issues, covering the foundational concepts of certainty, uncertainty, chance and risk. Current definitions of political risk are compended, and a new definition is suggested, compatible with the day-to-day operations of globalised firms. Models and methods for the measurement and identification of political risk are reviewed in the second part of the paper. Conceptual and operational incongruencies are investigated from a perspective which aims at establishing the need for a firm-specific conceptual schematicisation of political risk. Approaches based on aggregation by macro or micro distinction are rejected in favour of the proposed conceptual model. Finally, the remaining part of the paper considers current and past models which place the firm at the centre of the analytical procedure. An abstract model of the firm is described for the purpose of including constraints on business interests, norms, rules, practices and procedures, profitability and other goals. Some empirical data is discussed with a view to confirming the necessity for adopting firm-centric approaches. The conclusion recommends further research in the form of empirical case studies which consider risk in relation to the individual firm.
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    Independent homelands : an analysis of selected issues in South Africa-homeland relations
    (1984) Trevisan, Italo; Schrire, Robert A
    Eight years after Transkei has been granted independence, the independent states have become an important component of the South African political landscape, and their existence cannot be ignored despite the fact that no other country but South Africa has recognised their independence. This thesis is concerned with the evaluation of the choice of independence. The reasons are examined which led the South African government to grant independence to the homelands, and those which induced some of the homeland leaders to accept it. An evaluation is made of the political and economic benefits and lack thereof this choice has brought to those who made it and to their communities, with a view to the role the independent states may play in future developments in South Africa. A descriptive-analytical approach has been adopted and the main subjects have been presented in their chronological unfolding, in order to stress the basic continuity in the aims pursued both on the part of the South African government and on the part of the homeland leaders, despite numerous tactical adaptations to the circumstances on both sides. Most of the information has been gathered from the Hansard of the House and from reports of various commissions and government White Papers. Official documents from the independent states and the economic corporations working therein have also been extensively used. Other information and data have been gathered during a period of fieldwork in Ciskei and Transkei and through a number of interviews. The time passed since the granting of independence to the homelands which opted for it is still too short for an exhaustive evaluation of the effects this choice had for their population. It is however possible to draw a few preliminary conclusions regarding the effects the independent states will have in the evolution of the political situation in South Africa. The most important is that they are here to stay, bar a total defeat of the white government in an all-out war, and that they may be a factor in a still possible peaceful solution of the South African problems.
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    Now wasn't the time : the ANC's 1994 election campaign in South Africa's Western Cape Province
    (1997) Eldridge, Matthew; Schrire, Robert A; Mattes, Robert
    I have written this dissertation as an empirical study of the African National Congress' (ANC) 1994 election campaign in South Africa's Western Cape Province. Primarily, I address one overriding question: what are the principal reasons for and ramifications of the AN C's inability to win control of the province? I begin by exploring key factors concerning the history, demographics, electoral system and pre-campaign voter attitudes of the province that may have influenced how the party developed and implemented its strategy. I describe the evolution of the campaign, including strategic decisions made before and during its execution, and analyze the content of appeals to voters. I then assess the extent to which the above factors may have affected the campaign and examine the election results. I conclude by offering plausible implications of this case for future ANC campaigns in the Western Cape.
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    South Africa and political change : an analysis of selected studies of South African politics
    (1978) Razis, Vincent Victor; Prior, Andrew; Schrire, Robert A
    To a political scientist the challenge.is irresistible of trying to explain and understand a conflict society which is generally characterised in the world as historically anachronistic, politically untenable, economically wasteful and morally unacceptable. It is common cause that South Africa will change. What are the likely ways in which the conflict will be resolved, and which is most likely? These are the questions to which this thesis will attempt to provide answers: it is an effort to determine, as far as possible, the nature, direction and pace of change in South Africa, as seen by a selected group of recent studies of South African politics. The method will be to test the validity of the respective positions on this and related issues embedded in the selected studies of South African politics. Part II, the major part of the work, therefore, is an examination of the explicit or implicit assumptions and values, the conceptual and theoretical frameworks, the use of evidence, the existence of counter evidence, the omissions, inconsistencies and conclusions of various studies of South Africa, in order to assess the strengths and weaknesses of each as explanations of the political, social and economic process. In the course of the examination, an alternative analysis of the issues will be presented and defended. A synopsis of the analysis will be given in Part III. This will be used as a means for testing the analyses of the selected studies, before selecting what is valid in all of them in terms of providing possible answers to the questions posed about the resolution of conflict.
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    The total onslaught and the total strategy : adaptations to the security intelligence decision-making structures under P.W. Botha's administration
    (1987) Selfe, James; Schrire, Robert A
    In the years after Mr P W Botha became Prime Minister of South Africa, it became generally noticed that the military as an ins ti tu ti on had become a more important actor within the central decision-making structures. While this excited a great deal of contemporary comment, few appreciated that this represented not necessarily a formal coup, but rather the culmination of a meticulously planned counter-revolutionary strategy - the response of the Botha government to a perceived "total onslaught". This study traces the rise of the "total onslaught" rhetoric and links it to changes which occurred in the security intelligence apparatus. It describes the structure of the National Security Management System (NSMS) in detail, and it advances various arguments in an attempt to assess the significance of the changes which have occurred in the decision-making structures, as well as the efficacy and durability of the NSMS. The study concludes that, because of the dedication of its proponents and because of its efficiency, the NSMS may afford the regime a breathing-space, but that ultimately the international environment, and internal demographic and economic pressures are such as to make the degenerative collapse of the regime a more likely long-term scenario.