Browsing by Author "Ryan, Tom B"
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- ItemOpen AccessThe development of a forecasting method for mining house capital projects(1982) Michalakis, George; Jervis, W; Ryan, Tom BA broad description of a project is a single, non-repetitive enterprise which is undertaken to achieve planned results within a time limit and a cost budget. This description could equally well apply to fixing a punctured tyre, expanding an existing mine, the design of a computer system or the building of the pyramids. Modern civilisation is largely based on the successful completion of projects. It is surprising therefore, that it is only in the very recent future, since the 1950's say, that the effective management of projects has been considered worthy of academic attention. Today project management in in the process of becoming a management science in its own right. This need for the effective management of projects is further evidenced by the emergence in large organisations of departments whose function it is to control projects. Typically, a project control department would, in addition to other functions, be required to report to management regularly on the health of a project - is the project on schedule and on budget? If it is not, management clearly needs to be given an indication of where the project is heading. A number of techniques are in common use which claim to 'forecast' the final cost and completion date of a project. These techniques include the S-curve in its many forms and Critical Path Networking, amongst others. On close analysis however, it soon becomes apparent that although these techniques offer a wealth of useful information regarding the present state of the project, and give a qualitative idea of the direction the project is heading in, they do not give any quantitative indication of the final cost and completion date of a project. In other words these techniques are control methods rather than forecasting methods. Most forecasting tends, in fact, to be done by an expert judgemental process which is highly subjective. iii It was felt therefore that there was a need for the development of an objective forecasting method. An informal Industrial Opinion Survey was conducted which confirmed this belief. On the basis of this it was decided to attempt to develop an objective forecasting method and to determine whether it was more useful, reliable and accurate than existing subjective forecasts. An exhaustive Literature Survey was then carried out in an attempt to find past work in the field. It was found that most techniques in use were control techniques as described above, with the exception of the Resource Appraisement Model developed by Dr P.P. Pekar. This model (with three variations), provides a means of recalculating the complete project plan in terms of cost at each report period in the light of reported expenditures. However, the model assumes the same time phasing as the original project plan. In other words, it assumes that the project will end on schedule. This assumption limits considerably the practical use of the model. As a result, the Resource Appraisement Model was refined and modified somewhat to include the forecasting of time as well as cost. This was done by relating the two parameters independently to percent physical completion. The resulting model, known as the Generalised Resource Appraisement Model (GRAM), was then tested using a computer program and a case study project. The results of this evaluation were then compared to the forecasts which had been produced by the existing subjective method for the case study project. On the basis of this evaluation it was concluded that the GRAM was more accurate but as reliable as the existing method in forecasting final project cost. It was also found that the model was much quicker in informing management of general project trends (i.e. over or under budgeting). iv It was found however, that the model was too sensitive to large periodical fluctuations in expenditure which were not necessarily true reflections of changes in trend. There is reason to believe that this characteristic may be overcome with relatively minor refinements to the model. The objectives of the thesis were therefore attained adequately. Inevitably however there remains a great deal of work to be done before the technique could be used with confidence. Future work is indicated in taking the model less sensitive to large random fluctuations, and making the model a more flexible management tool by allowing the 'what if' type of investigation.
- ItemOpen AccessAn inquiry based intervention methodology for business management problems(1999) Mwaluko, George S; Ryan, Tom BIn this thesis different reasons for the failure of intervention efforts are explored. These reasons, which are at the level of theory, methodology and method, show that in the field of management intervention, there is a problem arising from conflicting opinions. For instance, at the level of theory, though writers agree that intervention efforts fail because they are based on theories that are inadequate, they differ on what an adequate theory is. Reasons given at the level of methodology and method also differ. For example, some attribute the failure of intervention efforts to their inability to deal with organizational processes, or organizational design. Yet, others blame the inability of intervention efforts to deal with organizational culture, or organizational politics, for their failure. A furthermore problem stems from the existence of different intervention methodologies. This presents organizations with the dilemma of not knowing which of these methodologies should be adopted. The main objective of this thesis therefore, is to conduct further research aimed at addressing this problem.
- ItemOpen AccessInvestigation of the failure of statistical process control in manufacturing industries in South Africa : case study - Atlantis Diesel Engines(1998) Anash, Rockson Boamah; Ryan, Tom BThis work strives to give an insight into why Statistical Process Control (SPC), a quality management tool, is not yielding desired results in some manufacturing industries such as Atlantis Diesel Engines in the Western Cape. Statistical Process Control is an improvement technique that, when properly used, can improve both the quality and the productivity levels which may subsequently improve the competitiveness of a company. SPC achieves this by highlighting when a process is out of control. This happens at the source and a very early stage. The advantage of this is that in the case of manufacturing, rejects are limited and in some cases prevented depending on the relationship between process capability and specifications. The aim of SPC is to reduce variability of characteristics of a product. Wetherill and Brown (1991) revealed that many organisations regulated the quality of their products with SPC during the Second World War. This gives an idea of how long SPC has been in existence. The widespread use of SPC nearly came to an end in the 1960s. The reason for the abandonment of SPC by leading manufacturing industries in most parts of the world was not clear but the belief was that at that time industries were prospering, with little or no competition. However, in the late 1970s, the Japanese industries took the market by storm by the use of quality management techniques and tools, which were introduced by quality gurus such as Deming, Juran, Crosby and many others. This gave the incentive for organisations that wanted to be world class players in their respective sectors to reconsider exhaustively the use of SPC and its tools. In South Africa, predominantly in the Western Cape, SPC has been reintroduced in many companies over the past eight years. The introduction of SPC in most of the industries has not been a smooth transition as it was based on the misconception that if enough of the "right" improvement activities were carried out, then actual performance improvement would improve. There have been many factors hindering the successful implementation of SPC in manufacturing industries such as ADE. This research aims to identify these factors.
- ItemOpen AccessA systemic rationale for integrated logistics/materials management : a case study of Romago engineering(2001) Magotsi, Moses Robert; Ryan, Tom BThis thesis argues that this slow adoption has partially been due to an under conceptualisation of the theoretical rationale for such an adoption. Using a case study Romago Engineering, a company that was experiencing material supply problems, the thesis develops a theoretica foundation for such management through a conceptualisation of the firm as a system, whose behaviour and characteristics are a result of the interactions of its various sub-systems.
- ItemOpen AccessThe use and application of Stafford Beer's 'Viable System Model' as a diagnostic tool(1999) Smart, Michael Charles; Ryan, Tom BThis research project is about one of the many tools available to the manager to evaluate an organisation, Stafford Beer's Viable System Model. The model as derived in his book 'The Heart of Enterprise', is reviewed in depth as part of the research. The model is then used to diagnose two organisations, a network marketing organisation, a growing and successful enterprise, and an engineering jobbing shop, an enterprise struggling to survive. It is shown how the successful enterprise conforms to the Viable System Model and the struggling one does not. The network marketing company is further examined to identify elements that contribute to its success and it is shown that these elements do not exist in the engineering jobbing shop. A proposal is then put forward on how to reorganise the engineering jobbing shop and implement the elements of success identified in the network marketing organisation. The research concludes by acknowledging that while it is beyond the scope of this research to categorically conclude that an enterprise must conform to the Viable System Model to be viable, the two specific companies researched here do suggest this. This is in agreement with Stafford Beer's contention that for an organisation to be viable it must at the very least conform to the Viable System Model. It is further concluded that the research demonstrates the usefulness of the Viable System Model in the evaluation of an organisation.