Browsing by Author "Platen, Eckhard"

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    Index-linked catastrophe instrument valuation
    (2018) Giuricich, Mario Nicolo; Burnecki, Krzysztof; Ouwehand, Peter; Platen, Eckhard
    This thesis proposes four contributions to the literature on index-linked catastrophe instrument valuation. Invariably, any exercise to find index-linked catastrophe instrument prices involves three key steps: construct a suitable arbitrage-free valuation model, estimate the parameters for the underlying loss process and simulate the instrument prices. Chapters 3 to 5 of this thesis loosely follow this process. In Chapter 3 we propose an index-linked catastrophe bond pricing model, which pervades in subsequent chapters. We furthermore show how, under certain assumptions, our model can use real-world catastrophe loss-data to find arbitrage-free, index-linked catastrophe bond prices. Chapter 4 demonstrates how we estimate parameters for the catastrophe-related insuranceloss process on which our pricing model relies. In practice, data from such insurance-loss processes is both left-truncated and heavy tailed. We build on ? ]’s procedure for modelling left-truncated data via a compound non-homogeneous Poisson process, and modify their fitting process so that it becomes systematically applicable in the context of heavy-tailed data. We close this chapter by presenting an importance sampling technique for simulating index-linked catastrophe bond prices. Chapter 5 treats the new problem of finding simple, closed-form expressions for indexlinked catastrophe bond prices. By using the weak convergence of compound renewal processes to α-stable Levy motion, we derive weak approximations to these catastrophe bond prices. ´ Their applicability is then highlighted in the context of our catastrophe-bond pricing model. Chapter 6 deviates from the ambit of catastrophe bond pricing, and considers a new type of insurance-linked security, namely the contingent convertible catastrophe bond. Our foremost contribution is that we comprehensively formalise the design and features of this instrument. Subsequently, we derive analytical valuation formulae for index-linked contingent-convertible catastrophe bonds. Using selected parameter values in line with earlier research, we empirically analyse our valuation formulae for index-linked contingent-convertible catastrophe bonds.
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    Recursive marginal quantization: extensions and applications in finance
    (2018) Rudd, Ralph; Kienitz, Jorg; Platen, Eckhard
    Quantization techniques have been used in many challenging finance applications, including pricing claims with path dependence and early exercise features, stochastic optimal control, filtering problems and the efficient calibration of large derivative books. Recursive marginal quantization of an Euler scheme has recently been proposed as an efficient numerical method for evaluating functionals of solutions of stochastic differential equations. This algorithm is generalized and it is shown that it is possible to perform recursive marginal quantization for two higher-order schemes: the Milstein scheme and a simplified weak-order 2.0 scheme. Furthermore, the recursive marginal quantization algorithm is extended by showing how absorption and reflection at the zero boundary may be incorporated. Numerical evidence is provided of the improved weak-order convergence and computational efficiency for the geometric Brownian motion and constant elasticity of variance models by pricing European, Bermudan and barrier options. The current theoretical error bound is extended to apply to the proposed higher-order methods. When applied to two-factor models, recursive marginal quantization becomes computationally inefficient as the optimization problem usually requires stochastic methods, for example, the randomized Lloyd’s algorithm or Competitive Learning Vector Quantization. To address this, a new algorithm is proposed that allows recursive marginal quantization to be applied to two-factor stochastic volatility models while retaining the efficiency of the original Newton-Raphson gradientdescent technique. The proposed method is illustrated for European options on the Heston and Stein-Stein models and for various exotic options on the popular SABR model. Finally, the recursive marginal quantization algorithm, and improvements, are applied outside the traditional risk-neutral pricing framework by pricing long-dated contracts using the benchmark approach. The growth-optimal portfolio, the central object of the benchmark approach, is modelled using the time-dependent constant elasticity of variance model. Analytic European option prices are derived that generalize the current formulae in the literature. The time-dependent constant elasticity of variance model is then combined with a 3/2 stochastic short rate model to price zerocoupon bonds and zero-coupon bond options, thereby showing the departure from risk-neutral pricing.