Browsing by Author "Moultrie, Tom"

Now showing 1 - 16 of 16
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    Analysis of fertility estimates in Zimbabwe : A comparison of the census and DHS data
    (2014) Madari, Zvikomborero T R; Moultrie, Tom
    Analysis of census data is important to uncover new insights as well as highlight where improvements in future data collection are required. The study provides an assessment of the fertility estimates derived from census data in comparison to those derived from the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Surveys. Robust methods are used to estimate fertility levels and to identify the trends in fertility in Zimbabwe. Fertility decline in Zimbabwe is observed to have started in the early 1980s. The greatest level of decline occurred between the 1980s and the mid-1990s. In more recent years fertility in Zimbabwe has stalled at roughly four children per woman. Using projected parity progression ratios fertility decline has been observed to be in part a result of parity limitation, as fewer women progress to higher parities. A comparison of the census and Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey fertility measures show that for the same cohort of women, the measures of fertility are strongly congruent. While there are problems with census data, it has been shown that using robust estimation the census fertility estimates are comparable to those from the Demographic and Health Surveys.
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    Analysis of the projected parity progression ratio method using two successive censuses
    (2013) Mutakwa, Darlington; Moultrie, Tom
    The objective of this study is to assess how well the projected parity progression ratio method works when applied to two successive censuses or Demographic Health Surveys. Four countries, namely Malawi, Zimbabwe, Cambodia and Panama, each with two recent censuses which are ten years apart, are used. Each of the census and survey used is taken through a data quality assessment process to check for inconsistencies. Using age-order specific fertility rates derived from births in the past year, parity progression ratios are projected to the next census.
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    Assessment of the robustness of recent births in estimating infant mortality using multi-country Demographic Health Survey data
    (2014) Munjoma, Malvern; Moultrie, Tom; Dorrington, Rob
    This dissertation investigates the robustness of recent births in estimating infant mortality rates from the proportion of deaths observed among births reported in a 24month period. The Blacker Brass technique is applied to all births reported in the 24month period and to most recent births in the 24 month period. The study uses birth history data from 76 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 16 countries across the developing world between 1986 and 2011. All births (and the deaths of those births) occurring in five 2-year periods before each survey were extracted to obtain five estimates of infant mortality using the Blacker-Brass and direct estimation methods from each dataset. This allows trends in infant mortality for the 10-year period before the survey to be compared and relative errors to be calculated. The results showed a decline in infant mortality in most datasets and are consistent with the United Nations and the World Health Organisation 2013 estimates. The relative errors did not indicate any systematic bias of the Blacker-Brass method applied to all births; however, further investigations showed that the method underestimated infant mortality in the period closest to the survey date in most datasets. Furthermore, the relative errors were positively correlated with the directly estimated level of infant mortality. There were, however, no significant differences in the relative errors across countries.
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    Birth spacing and child mortality in Mozambique : evidence from two demographic and health surveys
    (2008) Gonçalves Sandra Dzidzai; Moultrie, Tom
    This research examines child mortality risk associated with short preceding birth intervals in Mozambique in quinquennial periods between 1978 to 1998 using data from the 1997 and 2003 DHS. A log rate model for piecewise constant rates is applied. The piecewise hazard function assumes a constant hazard rate of child mortality in each 6 month category of the preceding birth interval. The negative binomial regression model is applied to account for the overdispersion present in the Poisson model.
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    Defining a sub-Saharan fertility pattern and a standard for use with the relational Gompertz model
    (2009) Van Gijsen, Rienier; Moultrie, Tom
    The relational Gompertz model is often used to obtain fertility estimates for sub-Saharan Africa populations. This indirect estimation technique is dependent on a fertility standard - the Booth standard. This standard was developed in 1979 using a selection of 33 Coale-Trussell schedules congruent with high fertility patterns. However, evidence from 61 Demographic and Health Surveys of sub-Saharan countries shows that fertility has decreased to levels that were considered medium fertility at the time the standard was developed. This raises concerns about the continued relevance of the (high fertility) Booth standard. In particular, the standard would appear to consistently underestimate fertility among African women aged 45-49.
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    Deriving traditional reproductive regimes to explain subnational fertility differentials in Zambia
    (2008) Wotela, Kambidima; Moultrie, Tom
    This thesis applies multivariate statistical techniques to six data sets to account for past and present-day features underlying ethnic fertility differentials in Zambia.
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    The determinants of contraceptive use in Zambia
    (2011) Fushayi, Nelly; Moultrie, Tom
    The contraceptive prevalence rate in Zambia is high, while fertility decline is very slow. From 1992 to 2007, the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) increased from 8.9 per cent in 1992 to 32.7 per cent in 2007; while total fertility rate (TFR) fluctuated between 6.5 and 6.2. The study uses three Zambian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data sets for 1996, 2001-2 and 2007 and applies multivariate logistic regression techniques to identify factors affecting the use and choice of modern contraceptives by Zambian women. The study seeks to identify how contraceptive use in Zambia influences fertility and why both contraceptive use and fertility are high. In our results, place of residence (urban/rural), age, education, number of living children and formal employment were identified as factors that are significantly related to use of modern contraceptives.
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    Fertility differentials in South Africa: effects of race on fertility, evidence from National Income Dynamic Survey
    (2011) Chingwalu, Julius; Moultrie, Tom
    Apartheid policies have been criticised for widening inequalities between population groups in South Africa. They have also been considered to have dictated differentials in demographic parameters. With lack of adequate data on social and economic variables in most demographic surveys including DHS, the use of race as a determinant of fertility seems plausible. With adequate data on social and economic factors, we use the NIDS survey to assess the effects of race on fertility after adequately controlling for social and economic factors. A logistic regression model is applied to assess the chance that a woman aged 20-24 has given birth by age 20 and a woman aged 25-29, by age 25. A linear regression model is also applied on the number of children born to a woman, standardised by age. The results show that the effect of race on fertility is not significant.
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    Fertility, birth intervals, and their proximate determinants in Zimbabwe
    (2009) Sayi, Takudzwa S; Moultrie, Tom
    It is found that birth intervals have increased from about 28 months in the 1960s to about 51 months by the year 2000, with the greater part of this increase occuring after 1985. Fertility fell from birth intervals are congruent with each other, in terms of timing and tempo. Of the two main proximate determinants identified; marital status and contraceptive use, the latter is founf to be the more dominant force behind changes in birth spacing. Differentials by marital status are not significant. The research adds to a growing body of studies on the nature of fertility tansitions in sub-Sahara Africa, and would particularly be useful in explaining observed differences in fertility transitions between countries in the region.
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    HIV/AIDS impact on childhood mortality and childhood mortality measurement : from the perspective of Kenyan and Malawian DHS data
    (2008) Kanjala, Chifundo; Moultrie, Tom
    This study has two goals. The first is to assess the consistency of the childhood mortality trends constructed from the direct and the indirect methods of estimation in high HIV prevalence scttings. The second goal is to assess the direct impact of HIV / AIDS on childhood mortality in Kenya and Malawi for the periods 1999 - 2003 and 2000 - 2004 respectively. It is important to understand the impact of HIV on childhood mortality and childhood mortality measurement to ensure that child health planning and cvaluation are correctly informed.
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    Interrogation of the fertility differentials between the Malawi DHS and the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project survey data
    (2011) Pashapa, Tapfuma; Moultrie, Tom
    Anglewicz, Adams, Obare et al (2009) show that the mean parities for the women who were interviewed in the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP) surveys of 1998 and 2004 are generally higher than the mean parities for the women who were interviewed in the Malawi Demographic and Health Surveys (MDHSs) of 2000 and 2004 respectively.
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    Modelling covariates of infant and child mortality in Malawi
    (2013) Lemani, Clara; Moultrie, Tom
    Mortality of children under the age of five has been the main target of public health policies (Gakusi and Garenne 2006). There has been a significant decline in under-five mortality in the twentieth century in almost all countries regardless of initial levels and socio-economic factors, although the rate of decline has been different in different regions (UNIGME 2012). Malawi, a country in the sub-Saharan region, is characterised by high infant and child mortality. Using data from 2010 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey, infant mortality in Malawi was estimated at 66 deaths per 1000 births while child mortality was at 50 deaths per 1000 births (NSO and ORC Macro 2011). Studies have been conducted to identify covariates of infant and child mortality in Malawi but none of these used recent data and none has included HIV/AIDS as a risk factor (Baker 1999; Bolstad and Manda 2001; Kalipeni 1992; Manda 1999). This study aims at examining bio-demographic, socio-economic and environmental factors associated with infant and child mortality in Malawi. Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data for 2004 and 2010 are used.
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    Population dynamics in Korogwe : demographic surveillance system (DSS) in Tanga Region, Tanzania
    (2010) Kamugisha, Mathias Leo; Moultrie, Tom
    A demographic surveillance system (DSS) is commonly used to generate and handle longitudinal follow-up data relating to demographic and health related events in a specified area. In the Korogwe DSS site, information on vital events such as births, deaths and migration has been collected since the establishment of the site in 2005. The aim was to establish demographic and epidemiological indices so as to assist in the evaluation of health related interventions.
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    Socio- Economic differentials in fertility in Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2005
    (2009) Chemhaka, Garikayi Bernard; Moultrie, Tom
    The study utilises four Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSS) conducted in 1988, 1994, 1999, and 2005 in Zimbabwe to examine the socioeconomic differentials in fertility over time. The period fertility (age-specific and total fertility) rates, cohort-period fertility rates (CPFRs), projected parity progression ratios (projected PPRs), and logistic regression methods are used in the analysis, overall, to assess the nature of fertility transition. All the measures of fertility indicate an ongoing fertility decline in Zimbabwe among all parities and age groups mainly as a result of an increase in modern contraceptive uptake. Overall, fertility decline has been much more rapidly in the in the 1980 decade and slowed since 1990. The analysis shows an inverse association between urban residence, education and economic status, measured by ownership of household assets, and fertility based on the total fertility (TFR), CPFRs and projected PPRs estimates. Further analysis of the net effects of economic status and education using multivariate logistic regressions suggests the odds of having a child (not having a child) decreases (increases) with economic status and education. Overall, even after controlling for various socioeconomic variables fertility decreases with a rising level in education and/or economic status.
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    Two investigations into the causal link between child mortality and subsequent fertility using DHS data from Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Tanzania and Zimbabwe
    (2013) Bungu, Manyara Lillian; Moultrie, Tom
    This research performs two investigations into the causal link between childhood mortality and fertility using Demographic and Health Survey data from Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Tanzania and Zimbabwe, countries which are at different stages of the demographic transition. The first investigation assesses the effect of the death of a child on the timing of the birth of the next child. Piecewise log-rate models were used to investigate women who had experienced the loss of a child and in all the countries under study these women were found to have shorter birth intervals. The magnitude of the effect was strongest in Lesotho and Zimbabwe. The second investigation assesses the effect of the death of at least one child on insuring against future mortality. Logistic regression models showed that women aged 35-49 years old who had experienced at least one child death were likely to insure against future child mortality. This effect was most pronounced in Malawi.