OpenUCT :: Browsing by Author "Morris, Mike"

Browsing by Author "Morris, Mike"

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The Asian Drivers and SSA: Is There a Future for Export-oriented African Industrialisation?
(Wiley, 2009) Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Mike
Export-oriented industrialisation is the orthodoxy and is widely indicated as a development path for sub-Saharan Africa. In recent years there has been a surge of clothing exports from a limited number of SSA economies to the US. In 2006 these exports accounted for more than half of SSA's manufactured exports (excluding South Africa). However, the ending of quota controls on Chinese clothing exports to the US led to a significant fall in these exports. Is this a harbinger for the future of export-oriented industrialisation in SSA in a world of a level trading playing field?
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The Asian Drivers and SSA: MFA Quota Removal and the Portents for African Industrialisation?
(2006) Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Mike
Most debates around the industrialisation possibilities for developing countries kick off on the impact of globalisation. Increasing globalisation (in the sense of trade liberalisation and opening up of markets) is either deemed to be beneficial to developing country economies or detrimental to them. Usually the impact of globalisation is discussed in terms of the integration of developing country markets into those of the industrialised centres of the global economy – i.e. North America, European Union, and Japan. Consequently the discussion hinges around the question of who benefits from opening up developing country markets to these Triad economies (and vice versa).
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China and Sub Saharan Africa: impacts and challenges of a growing relationship
(2008) Kaplinsky, Raphael; McCormick, Dorothy; Morris, Mike
That China is having an impact on Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is very clear. What is not clear is the precise nature of that impact. Does it come mainly from trade in cheap manufactured goods? Does it come from China's seemingly insatiable hunger for oil and minerals? What role do Chinese companies operating in Africa play? How beneficial is Chinese aid and/or international cooperation? Existing literature gives a fair amount of information about the magnitude and effects of trade between China and SSA. It tells us, for example, that trade between China and SSA has increased rapidly, especially since 2001. Available databases can be mined to tell us what is traded and by whom. The literature, however, is less clear about how that trade actually affects Africa. What countries benefit and in what sectors? Who is losing out, and why? It is also clear that trade is not the only form of interaction between China and Africa, and that other interactions may also generate positive or negative impacts. Of the many possibilities, we have identified foreign direct investment, production, and aid as potential channels of impact. Unfortunately, we know even less about how these affect Africa than we do about the effects of trade. In the following pages, we attempt first to take stock of our knowledge. We do by subjecting the most common forms of interaction between China and SSA to a comprehensive and detailed analysis using a systematic framework. We then use this analysis to identify the gaps in our knowledge and suggest ways of bridging them. The paper uses secondary data from a number of sources, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the US Department of Commerce, as well as published materials and relevant websites. The paper is written in five parts. Part 2 presents a framework for analyzing the impact of China on SSA. Part 3 uses available information to examine each of the main channels of impact. Part 4 raises a number of issues arising from this analysis, focusing particularly on the manufacturing sector. Part 5 presents our conclusions.
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Chinese FDI in Sub Saharan Africa: engaging with large dragons
(Palgrave Macmillan, 2009) Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Mike
In the context of widespread interest in the impact of Chinese investment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), this paper focuses on SSA's engagement with large state-owned Chinese firms investing in SSA's resource and infrastructure sectors. Evidence is provided on the extent of different types of Chinese investment, before focusing on the distinctive character of large scale state-owned Chinese investors whose investments are closely bundled with aid and trade. The paper concludes that SSA countries should maximise the opportunities opened to them by their resource-base by adopting a similarly integrated and focused response to Chinese (and other large) investors who seek to draw on the continent's natural resources.
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Clothing and textiles
(HSRC Press, 2009) Morris, Mike; Reed, Lyn
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Commodities and Linkages: Industrialisation in Sub Saharan Africa
(2011) Morris, Mike; Kaplinsky, Raphael; Kaplan, David
In a complementary Discussion Paper (MMCP DP 12 2011) we set out the reasons why we believe that there is extensive scope for linkage development into and out of SSA?s commodities sectors. In this Discussion Paper, we present the findings of our detailed empirical enquiry into the determinants of the breadth and depth of linkages in eight SSA countries (Angola, Botswana, Gabon, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa Tanzania, and Zambia) and six sectors (copper, diamonds, gold, oil and gas, mining services and timber). We conclude from this detailed research that the extent of linkages varies as a consequence of four factors which intrinsically affect their progress the passage of time, the complexity of the sector and the level of capabilities in the domestic economy. However, beyond this we identify three sets of related factors which determined the nature and pace of linkage development. The first is the structure of ownership, both in lead commodity producing firms and in their suppliers and domestic customers. The second is the nature and quality of both hard infrastructure (for example, roads and ports) and soft infrastructure (for example, the efficiency of customs clearance). The third is the availability of skills and the structure and orientation of the National System of Innovation in the domestic economy. The fourth, and overwhelmingly important contextual factor is policy. This reflects policy towards the commodity sector itself, and policy which affects the three contextual drivers, namely ownership, infrastructure and capabilities. As a result of this comparative analysis we provided an explanation of why linkage development was progressive in some economies (such as Botswana) and regressive in others (such as Tanzania). This cluster of factors also explains why the breadth and depth of linkages is relative advanced in some countries (such as South Africa), and at a very nascent stage in other countries (such as Angola).
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Commodities and Linkages: Meeting the Policy Challenge
(2011) Morris, Mike; Kaplinsky, Raphael; Kaplan, David
The results of detailed empirical enquiry into the nature and determinants of the breadth and depth of linkages in and out of the commodities sector in eight SSA countries (Angola, Botswana, Gabon, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa Tanzania, and Zambia) and six sectors (copper, diamonds, gold, oil and gas, mining services and timber) has shown extensive scope for industrial development (MMCP DP 13, 2011). A primary conclusion of this research was that policy in both the private and public realm was a prime factor holding back the development of linkages. Addressing this problem requires the closing of three sets of misalignments between policy and practice within the corporate sector, within the public sector, and between the public sector and other stakeholders involved in linkage development. In addition, specific policies need to be developed, monitored and implemented in relation to the three contextual drivers of linkages from the commodity sector skills and capabilities, infrastructure and policies towards ownership.
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The Competitive Dynamics of the Clothing Industry in Madagascar in the post-MFA Environment
(2006) Morris, Mike; Sedowski, Leanne
The last few years have witnessed two major shifts in global trading and industrialisation patterns. The first is the rise of China (with the South East Asian region in tow) as the dominant force reshaping the competitive dynamics between developing and developed countries as well as within the developing world itself. The second is exemplified in the rapid rise of a clothing industry sector, with a concomitant impact on wage employment, in some sub-Saharan African countries (amongst which Madagascar has been prominent), as a direct result of the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) of 2000. However, the end of the Multifibre Arrangement and the massive impact of China on the global dispersion of clothing production have threatened to substantially disrupt these processes. Despite the plethora of warnings, there is very little empirical analysis of the real changes taking place as a result of the changed global environment. Based on international trade data and field research undertaken in Madagascar, this article aims to analyze the clothing industry's current dynamics in Madagascar, given the impact of AGOA and the end of apparel quotas. The first section situates the clothing industry in Madagascar within the changing global environment. The second section provides an analysis of the competitiveness dynamics and global linkages operating in Madagascar based on primary research through firm level interviews undertaken in Madagascar in 2005. The article concludes by assessing the policy implications in the post-MFA world.
Open Access
Dangling by a thread: how sharp are the Chinese scissors?
(2006) Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Mike
China's growth spurt began in the late 1970s. But it was only in second half of the 1990s that its impact on the global economy began to be felt. China's exportdrive was not unique by East Asian standards (Figure 1.1). However, its size China has more than 20 percent of the global population) means that it is having a very significant impact on many other economies, including on low income economies in SSA. Its economy has grown at a compound rate of more than nine percent p.a. since 1979 and if this is sustained, it will be second in size to the US by 2018. Its trade impact is especially important, since its trade-GDP ratio is 70 percent (relatively high by comparison with other developing countries). In 2004, China was the world's third largest exporter, accounting for around 10 percent of the world's exports. The Organisation for Economic Development (OECD) estimates that China will be the leading global exporter by 2010.
Open Access
Do the Asian drivers undermine export-oriented industrialization in SSA?
(Elsevier, 2007) Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Mike
An increase in outward orientation in general, and in export-oriented manufacturing in particular is widely indicated as a suitable developmental path for SSA. The logic for this is drawn both from the demonstration effect of China and the earlier generation of Asian NICs, and from theory. However, the entry of China (and to a lesser extent India) into the global economy as a significant exporter of manufactures poses severe problems for export-oriented growth in SSA. This can be seen from SSA's recent experience in the clothing and textile sectors, often considered to be the first step in export-oriented manufacturing growth. Without sustained trade preferences over Asian producers, SSA's clothing and textile industry will be largely excluded from global markets and face significant threats in its domestic market. This has generalizable implications for other sectors, and for other sets of low income producers.
Key words: export oriented industrialization; SSA; China; clothing and textile industry; fallacy of composition
DOI:? 10.1016/j.worlddev.2007.06.007
Open Access
The dynamics of Zambia's copper value chain
(2012) Fessehaie, Judith; Morris, Mike
The past two decades witnessed the emergence of China and India as major investors in African extractive industries. This, together with the commodity price boom, raises new questions on Africa's industrialisation prospects. This thesis investigates the dynamics of industries upstream of a mineral sector, in light of changing investment ownership patterns. My aim is to examine whether the new value chain drivers, China and India, are characterised by distinctive value chain governance patterns and whether this impact on the opportunities and constraints for the localisation and development of a mining supply industry. I also analyse the socio-economic context in which these dynamics are embedded to identify historical trajectories and institutional determinants. Zambia represents an appropriate case-study given the central role of the copper sector in the country's economy and the heterogeneity of the copper industry ownership structure. My findings are based on 77 interviews with European, Canadian, Chinese and South African mining companies, local supply firms, and private and public sector representatives. In addition, archive material was instrumental in contextualising my research questions within post-structural adjustment programme trajectories in the Copperbelt. I adopt a theoretical framework based on the Global Value Chain approach. Additionally, I draw extensively on the international business literature.
Open Access
An evaluation of the employment trends in the clothing & textile industry
(2006) Edwards, Lawrence; Morris, Mike
A primary justification for the proposed quotas is the claim that 63 000 to 67 000 jobs have been lost over the past three and a half years (and that 1000 jobs are being lost per month)1 and that these losses are directly related to the significant growth in imports from China over this period. Further, it is argued that the imposition of quotas, will not only reverse this decline, but will raise employment in clothing and textiles by 50 000 to 60 000.
Open Access
An evaluation of the employment trends in the clothing & textile industry
(2006) Edwards, Lawrence; Morris, Mike
A primary justification for the proposed quotas is the claim that 63 000 to 67 000 jobs have been lost over the past three and a half years (and that 1000 jobs are being lost per month)1 and that these losses are directly related to the significant growth in imports from China over this period. Further, it is argued that the imposition of quotas, will not only reverse this decline, but will raise employment in clothing and textiles by 50 000 to 60 000.
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Globalisation, Welfare and Competitiveness: The Impacts of Chinese Imports on the South African Clothing and Textile Industry
(SAGE Publications, 2008) Morris, Mike; Einhorn, Gill
The rapid spread of Chinese clothing exports globally is analysed with respect to their competitiveness and welfare industrial policy dimensions, using a framework of complementary/competitive relationships and direct/indirect impacts. The dynamics governing the South African clothing sector, the role of retailers in driving domestic value chains, and the reasons for the huge increase of Chinese clothing imports is discussed. The significant welfare benefit of cheap clothing imports for consumers is detailed. The impact on local manufacturers, forcing them to meet the competitiveness challenge and upgrade their production capabilities, as well as the policy challenges this creates for local producers, is explored.
Open Access
Globalization, the Changed Global Dynamics of the Clothing and Textile Value Chains and the Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa
(2009) Morris, Mike; Barnes, Justin
This paper outlines the dynamics of global clothing and textile value chains. In addition, it focuses on how the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa have been drawn into these globalized value chains, enabling the development of clothing industries in a number of less developed, poor countries. It begins by setting out the dynamics of the changing nature of the global clothing and textile value chain in order to contextualise the global trading patterns. The next section deals with what is left in the industrialized countries and what aspects of the chain have shifted to developing countries. This is followed by a detailed discussion of global trade, employment and investment, which provides the context for analysis of the demise of the Multi Fibre Agreement (MFA) and the impact of China on global clothing and textile value chains post-MFA. The final section discusses the importance of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for the development of Sub-Saharan Africa industrialization. The chapter ends with a number of policy conclusions.
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Impacts and Challenges of a Growing Relationship between China and Sub Saharan Africa
(2009) Kaplinsky, Raphael; McCormick, Dorothy; Morris, Mike
The existing literature is clear that China is impacting on Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). What is not clear is the precise nature of that impact. Does it come mainly from trade in cheap manufactured goods? Does it come from China’s seemingly insatiable hunger for oil and minerals? What countries benefit and in what sectors? What role do Chinese companies operating in Africa play? How beneficial is Chinese aid and/or international cooperation? Who is losing out, and why? Most of the literature focuses on trade but other interactions also generate positive or negative impacts. Of the many possibilities, we have identified foreign direct investment, production, and aid as potential channels of impact. In the following pages, we attempt first to take stock of our knowledge. We do by subjecting the most common forms of interaction between China and SSA to a comprehensive and detailed analysis using a systematic framework. We then use this analysis to identify the gaps in our knowledge and suggest ways of bridging them. The paper uses secondary data from a number of sources, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the US Department of Commerce, as well as published materials and relevant websites.
Open Access
Industrial policy, politics and state capacity building
(2010) Morris, Mike
In! this! note! on! stimulating! a! discussion! around! building! state! capacity,! I! try! to! raise! a! number! of! questions/issues! derived! from! my! own! experiences! around! both! industrial! policy!and! the!politics!of!growth! that!impact!on! the!ability! to! translate!industrial!policy! into!implementable!strategy.!This!is!a!discussion!which!pivots!around!the!alignments!and! conflicts!of!interests!within!the!state, as!well!as!between!state,!private!sector,!and!unions.! The! politics! of! growth! is! wider! than! the! issue! of! how! industrial! policy! is designed.!However!we!often!engage!in!the!discussion!as!if!it!was!simply!a!question!of!policy,!leaving! out!a!crucial!political!component!of!the!equation!–!i.e.!the!manner!in!which!politics!plays! itself!out!within!the!domain!of!the!formulation!of!policy!and!its!translation!into!strategy.
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Industrialization Trajectories in Madagascar’s Export Apparel Industry: Ownership, Embeddedness, Markets, and Upgrading
(2014) Morris, Mike; Staritz, Cornelia
The paper shows the importance of ownership as a conceptual category within global value chain (GVC) analysis through analyzing firm types based on their GVC linkage, market access, and ownership profile in Madagascar’s apparel export industry. The central argument is that ownership leading to variances in embeddedness matters. Ownership characteristics of supplier firms shape the ability to shift between different end markets, respond to lead firm requirements, and pursue upgrading. With Madagascar’s exclusion from AGOA benefits this has enabled locally embedded European/French diaspora-owned firms and regionally embedded Mauritian-owned firms to shift market channels and upgrade while Asian-owned firms largely exited the industry.
Open Access
Mapping the potential risk of climate change to South Africa's health sector: An analysis of the Health Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Tool developed for the South African health sector
(2022) Weaver, Zachariah; Morris, Mike
Health Risk and Vulnerability Assessments are key resources for national health departments to understand how to properly prepare for the impact of climate change on a country's health sector. However, countries often lack the required estimates of future burden of disease and of health services to undertake these assessments. This thesis examines the development and application of a Health Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Tool built by OneWorld Sustainable Investments for the South African National Department of Health to develop an understanding of the risk of climate change to the South African health sector by addressing the lack of estimates of future burden of disease and of health services. The thesis examines how the Tool was developed, and was able to build capacity on the impact of climate change on the South African health sector among district health officials, capture their estimates of future burden of disease and of health services to calculate the risk of climate change to the health sector, and then present the resulting risk data in an easy to understand and approachable manner for health officials to integrate into their climate change adaptation planning work.
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“One Thing Leads to Another” – Commodities, Linkages and Industrial Development: A Conceptual Overview
(2011) Morris, Mike; Kaplinsky, Raphael; Kaplan, David
African commodity exporting economies have benefitted greatly from the commodities boom of the past decade. This raises the possibility of commodity based industrialization path for these economies. However the conventional wisdom warns of the great dangers of relying on resource rents, amongst which are the fact that the capital intensive nature of many commodities sectors limits employment and the distribution of these rents. The paper challenges this pessimistic „resource curse? argument and sets out the conceptual reasons arguing that the strengthening of linkages to the commodities sector is an important avenue for industrial development. It sets out a general model of linkages between industry and services and the commodities sector which distinguishes between win-win and win-lose outcomes. The paper concludes with a brief review of the reasons why Governments might wish to intervene to support linkages between the commodities and the industrial and service sectors.