Browsing by Author "Monteiro, Pedro M S"

Now showing 1 - 12 of 12
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    An ADCP study of subtidal scale density-driven exchange in Saldanha Bay, South Africa
    (2003) Stewart, Helen Frances; Monteiro, Pedro M S; Waldron, Howard; Brundrit, Geoff
    An ADCP and water-column temperature study was conducted to determine the circulation aspect of subtidal-scale, density-driven exchange in Saldanha Bay, South Africa. Density-driven exchange conditions develop in response to synoptic-scale wind events in the southern Benguela region, even under light (<5m s-') wind conditions. During a density-driven exchange event, directionally opposing bi-level flow, similar to an estuarine system, develops in response to remote upwelling-favourable winds. The bi-level flow component occurs in two distinct bands, bayward at 0-9m height from bottom and seaward 15-20m height off bottom, and is very sensitive to changes in wind forcing. Observations of current behaviour are added to the four-phase conceptual model of density-driven exchange developed by Monteiro and Largier (1999). In addition, estimates of bay flushing based on ADCP current velocities and the four-phase conceptual model are calculated and implications of shelf water influx into Saldanha Bay are discussed.
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    Characterization of the Carbonate System across the Agulhas and Agulhas Return Currents
    (2015) Melato, Lebohang Innocentia; Ansorge, Isabelle Jane; Monteiro, Pedro M S
    In this study, we investigate the role that the solubility and biological pumps have on CO₂ variability across the Agulhas Current system ( Agulhas Current and the Agulhas Return Current). The Agulhas Current system transports heat and salt from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic Ocean via the Agulhas leakage, which influences the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This study presents for the first time a characterization of the role the Agulhas Current system (Agulhas and Agulhas Return Currents) has on the uptake of anthropogenic CO₂. Fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO₂ ) values were obtained from a ship-based underway pCO₂ (partial pressure of carbon dioxide) system and the air-sea CO₂ fluxes were computed using 6-hourly wind speeds from the NOAA Blended Sea Winds. An experiment was conducted during the Crossroads scientific monitoring line in May 2013, where surface dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity and CO₂ flux were compared between the Agulhas and Agulhas Return Currents and the region directly south over the Agulhas Plateau. Our findings highlighted that the solubility and biological pumps played minimal to no role in the drawdown of carbon across the sub-Tropical zone and the Agulhas Current system (Agulhas and Agulhas Return Currents), due to opposing effect between chlorophyll and temperature on pCO₂ that explained why although there was carbon drawdown by primary production in the Agulhas and Agulhas Return Current regions, this does not play a role in enhancing the air-sea exchange of CO₂. The solubility pump was responsible for CO₂ in the sub-Antarctic zone. The biological and solubility pumps were responsible for CO₂ sink in the Agulhas Plateau eddy. The highest CO₂ flux in the study was observed in the Agulhas Plateau eddy at a flux value of -8.12 mmolC.m-².day-¹ due to the cooler mean sea surface temperature of ~16.5 °C. This is the first time that such as study has been undertaken and aims to provide a better understanding of the role of Western Boundary Currents such as the Agulhas Current has in the uptake of CO₂.
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    Distribution of copper, zinc and cadmium in the southern ocean south of South Africa
    (1982) Monteiro, Pedro M S
    Analysis and interpretation was carried out on trace metal samples (Cu,Zn,Cd) collected in the Southern Ocean south of South Africa. The results tentatively show that there is a significant copper flux from interstitial waters of the Weddell - Enderby basins. There is little evidence that these trace metals follow the systematics of nutrients throughout the water column; advection appears to play an important role in determining the vertical distribution of these chemical components.
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    Exploring optimising strategies for sampling air-sea carbon dioxide flux in the southern ocean
    (2014) Pringle, Nicholas; Monteiro, Pedro M S; Waldron, Howard
    A model study was undertaken to investigate the optimization of sampling strategies for returning low-uncertainty sea-air CO₂ flux measurements in the Southern Ocean. Replicating Lenton et al. (2006) using the ORCA2/PISCES ocean biological model shows that sampling 4 times a year, every 2⁰ in latitude and every 40⁰ in longitude reduces the uncertainty of estimating annual CO₂ flux estimates such that sampling at a higher frequency does not reduce the total uncertainty in proportion to the increase in sampling effort.
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    Improved estimates and understanding of interannual trends of CO₂ fluxes in the Southern Ocean
    (2017) Gregor, Luke; Monteiro, Pedro M S; Vichi, Marcello; Kok, Schalk
    The Southern Ocean plays an important role in mitigating the effects of anthropogenically driven climate change. The region accounts for 43% of oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂). This is foreseen to change with increasing greenhouse gas emissions due to ocean chemistry and climate feedbacks that regulate the carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean. Studies have already shown that Southern Ocean CO₂ is subject to interannual variability. Measuring and understanding this change has been difficult due to sparse observational data that is biased toward summer. This leaves a crucial gap in our understanding of the Southern Ocean CO₂ seasonal cycle, which needs to be resolved to adequately monitor change and gain insight into the drivers of interannual variability. Machine learning has been successful in estimating CO₂ in may parts of the ocean by extrapolating existing data with satellite measurements of proxy variables of CO₂. However, in the Southern Ocean machine learning has proven less successful. Large differences between machine learning estimates stem from the paucity of data and complexity of the mechanisms that drive CO₂. In this study the aim is to reduce the uncertainty of estimates, advance our understanding of the interannual drivers, and optimise sampling of CO₂ in the Southern Ocean. Improving the estimates of CO₂ was achieved by investigating: the impact of increasing the gridding resolution of input data and proxy variables, and Support vector regression (SVR) and Random Forest Regression (RFR) as alternate machine learning methods. It was found that the improvement gained by increasing gridding resolution was minimal and only RFR was able to improve on existing error estimates. Yet, there was good agreement of the seasonal cycle and interannual trends between RFR, SVR and estimates from the literature. The ensemble mean of these methods was used to investigate the variability and interannual trends of CO₂ in the Southern Ocean. The interannual trends of the ensemble confirmed trends reported in the literature. A weakening of the sink in the early 2000's, followed by a strengthening a strengthening of the sink into the early 2010's. Wind was the overall driver of dominant decadal interannual trends, being more important during winter due to the increased efficacy of entrainment processes. Summer interannual variability of CO₂ was driven primarily by chlorophyll, which responded to basin scale changes in drivers by the complex interaction with underlying physics and possibly sub-mesoscale processes. Lastly CO₂ sampling platforms, namely ships, profiling floats and moorings, were tested in an idealised simulated model environment using a machine learning approach. Ships, simulated from existing cruise tracks, failed to adequately resolve CO₂ below the uncertainty threshold that is required to resolve the seasonal cycle of Southern Ocean CO₂. Eight high frequency sampling moorings narrowly outperformed 200 profiling floats, which were both able to adequately resolve the seasonal cycle. Though, a combination of ships and profiling floats achieved the smallest error.
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    Is the southern Benguela a significantregional sink of CO2?
    (2013) Gregor, Luke; Monteiro, Pedro M S
    This study was undertaken to characterise the seasonal cycle of air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in the southern Benguela upwelling system off the South African west coast. Samples were collected from six monthly cross-shelf cruises in the St. Helena Bay region during 2010. CO2 fluxes were calculated from pCO2 derived from total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon and scatterometer-based winds. Notwithstanding that it is one of the most biologically productive eastern boundary upwelling systems in the global ocean, the southern Benguela was found to be a very small net annual CO2 sink of -1.4 ± 0.6 mol C/m2 per year (1.7 Mt C/year). Regional primary productivity was offset by nearly equal rates of sediment and sub-thermocline remineralisation flux of CO2 , which is recirculated to surface waters by upwelling. The juxtaposition of the strong, narrow near-shore out-gassing region and the larger, weaker offshore sink resulted in the shelf area being a weak CO2 sink in all seasons but autumn (-5.8, 1.4 and -3.4 mmol C/m2 per day for summer, autumn and winter, respectively).
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    Primary productivity and its variability in the Atlantic Southern ocean
    (2014) Joubert, Warren Ryan; Monteiro, Pedro M S; Waldron, Howard
    The two principal bottom-up drivers of the High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) characteristics of the Southern Ocean are light and nutrient (mainly dissolved iron) limitation ( Boyd , 2002; Mitchell et al., 1991), which have varying limiting roles over the growing season ( Boyd, 2002; Swart et al., 2014). This research commenced with an investigation of the meridional characteristics of primary productivity in the Atlantic Southern Ocean during austral summer 2008.
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    Seasonal and interannual variability of the marine carbonate system at the ice shelf in the eastern Weddell Gyre and its sensitivity to future ocean acidification
    (2012) Weeber, Amy; Monteiro, Pedro M S; Waldron, Howard
    Ocean Acidification through the uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ is resulting in a decrease in surface water carbonate ion concentration, a critical compound for marine calcifying organisms (Fabry et al., 2008; Orr et al., 2005). Natural seasonal variability is predicted to hasten the effects of Ocean Acidification in the Southern Ocean, resulting in possible surface water wintertime aragonite (the more soluble form of calcium carbonate) undersaturation (Ωarag< 1) south of the Antarctic Polar Front by the year 2030 (McNeil and Matear, 2008). An Ocean Acidification study was conducted to determine the seasonal and interannual variability in aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) at the Antarctic ice shelf between 4°E and 14°W and in the Eastern Weddell Gyre, during the Austral summers of 2008/2009, 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012. This study shows that at the Antarctic ice shelf andin the Eastern Weddell Gyre (EWG), seasonal summertime phytoplankton blooms were a critical factor in the observed decrease in summer surface water CO 2 and the subsequent increase in summer surface water Ωarag.
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    The seasonal cycle of CO₂ fluxes in the Southern Ocean: a model spatial scale sensitivity analysis
    (2014) Mongwe, Ndunisani Precious; Monteiro, Pedro M S
    A recent study by Lenton et al., 2013, compared the mean seasonal cycle of air-sea CO₂ flux in the Southern Ocean(SO) over 1990 – 2009 period using five ocean biogeochemical models(BGMs) and atmospheric and ocean inversion models with monthly mean observations for the year 2000. This was done using a set of geographic boundaries to defined sub-domains of the SO consistent with the Regional Carbon Cycle and Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) protocol. Lenton et al., 2013 found that the seasonal cycle anomaly of the five BGMs better resolved observations of the air-sea CO₂ flux seasonal cycle in the SAZ, but was generally out phase with observations in the polar zone. In this study two setups of the ocean biogeochemical model NEMO PISCES was used to investigate the characteristics of the air-sea CO₂ flux seasonal cycle in the Southern Ocean in the period 1993- 2006. The study focused on two aspects i.e. (i) the sensitivity of air-sea CO₂ flux seasonal cycle to model resolution: comparing the ORCA2-LIM-PISCES (2° x 2° cos Ø) and PERIANT05 (NEMO-PISCES) (0.5° x 0.5° cos Ø) model configurations relative to climatological mean observations for the year 2000 (Takahashi et al., 2009) , and (ii) the sensitivity of air-sea CO₂ flux seasonal cycle to zonal boundary definition: comparing the air-sea CO₂ flux seasonal cycle and annual fluxes for three different boundaries i.e. Lenton 2013 RECCAP boundaries (44°S – 58°S and south of 58°S), geographic boundaries (40°S -50°S and south of 50°S) and dynamic boundaries (Sub-Antarctic Zone and Antarctic Zone, defined using climatological frontal positions). The seasonal cycle of the air-sea CO₂ flux in ORCA2 was found to be out of phase and overestimated the CO₂ flux compared to observations in almost all the sub-regions considered. The use of dynamic boundaries was found not to improve resolving observations seasonal cycle of air-sea CO₂ flux in both ORCA2 and PERIANT05. Boundary definition was found to affect the magnitude of ORCA2 annual air-sea CO₂ fluxes surface area based, where sub-regions of larger surface area gave larger annual CO₂ uptake and vice versa. This was mainly because ORCA2 air-sea CO₂ fluxes were found to show a general CO₂ in-gassing bias and spatially uniform in most parts of the SO and hence integration over a larger surface area gave larger annual fluxes. On the contrary PERIANT05 air-sea CO₂ fluxes spatial variability was not uniform in most parts of the SO however influenced by regional processes and hence annual fluxes were found not surface area based. The poor spatial representation and seasonal cycle sensitivity of ORCA2 air-sea CO₂ fluxes was found to be primarily due to lack or weak winter CO₂ entrainment and biological CO₂ draw down during the summer season. PERIANT05 on the contrary showed the effect of winter CO₂ entrainment, however maintains lack of or weak biological CO₂ draw down in the seasonal cycle. PERIANT05 was also found to show major weakness in the spatial representation of air-sea CO₂ fluxes north of the polar front with relative to T09 observations.
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    Seasonal variability of sediment oxygen demand and biogeochemistry on the Namibian inner shelf
    (2006) Joubert, Warren R; Roychoudhury, Alakendra N; Monteiro, Pedro M S
    The Central Benguela inner shelf is characterised by hypoxic to anoxic sub-thermocline water conditions on a semi-permanent basis. Historical understanding of the incidence of hypoxia is that the inner shelf area off Namibia is one of the main areas of formation of low oxygen water (LOW) in the Benguela upwelling system. Local biogeochemical remineralization of organic matter mostly related to the primary production in surface waters (Chapman and Shannon, 1985) is thought to drive seasonal variability in sediment oxygen demand. New understanding of the system suggests that shelf hypoxia is driven by a remotely forced equatorial hypoxic boundary condition thought to trigger anaerobic remineralization and increased sediment fluxes of reduced metabolites (Monteiro et al., in press). The study focused on seasonal variability of sediment oxygen demand on the Namibian inner shelf and its relation to particulate organic carbon and reduced metabolite fluxes.
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    Seasonality of the marine carbonate system in the southern Benguela nutrient stoichiometry, alkalinity production, and CO flux
    (2012) Gregor, Luke; Monteiro, Pedro M S; Waldron, Howard
    An observational study was undertaken to determine the seasonality of the marine carbonate system of the southern Benguela focusing on three key points: the processes driving bulk stoichiometry, alkalinity production on the continental shelf, and the air-sea flux of CO2. Monthly samples were taken along the St. Helena Bay Monitoring Line in the southern Benguela for ten of the months in 2010. Samples were analysed for dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA). Temperature, salinity, oxygen and nutrients were also measured.
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    Understanding modelled sea-air CO2 flux biases in the Southern Ocean through the seasonal cycle
    (2018) Mongwe, Ndunisani Precious; Monteiro, Pedro M S; Vichi, Marcello
    The Southern Ocean forms a vital component of the earth system as a sink of CO2 and heat, taking over 40% of the annual oceanic CO2 uptake (75% of global heat uptake), slowing down the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere and thus the rate of climate change. However, recent studies based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models (ESMs) show that CMIP5 ESMs disagree on the phasing of the seasonal cycle of the CO2 flux (FCO2) and compare poorly with available observation estimates in the Southern Ocean. Notwithstanding these differences, the seasonal cycle is a dominant mode of CO2 variability in the Southern Ocean, and hence this is an important bias. Previous studies suggest that these biases of FCO2 in ESMs might be a significant limitation to the long-term simulation of CO2 characteristics in the Southern Ocean. Consequently, this study has three primary objectives: first, to develop a process-based diagnostic method to analyze and isolate key biases and their underlaying mechanisms in the model-observations seasonal cycle of FCO2 differences for forced ocean models and ESMs. Second, to use this framework to examine sources of biases responsible for the limited skill of CMIP5 models in simulating the seasonal cycle of FCO2 with respect to observed estimates. Thirdly, to investigate how these present-day biases in the seasonality and drivers of CO2 in CMIP5 ESMs affect modelled longterm changes in the mechanisms of CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean. In the first part of the dissertation, an objective diagnostic framework was established to analyze model-observation biases in the seasonal scale of FCO2 using the NEMO PISCES ORCA2LP model output, and Takahashi et al. (2009) observed estimates. The diagnostic framework focuses on examining the relative contributions of the competing drivers (SST and DIC) and related processes (solubility, biological and mixing) to instantaneous monthly changes in surface pCO2 (and FCO2) at the seasonal scale. In the second part of the dissertation, this approach is applied to 10 CMIP5 models in the Southern Ocean, to investigate the mechanistic basis for the seasonal cycle of FCO2 biases. It was found that FCO2 biases in CMIP5 models can be grouped into two main categories, i.e. group-SST and group-DIC. Group-SST models are characterized by an exaggeration of the seasonal rates of change of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in autumn and spring during the cooling and warming peaks, respectively. These faster-than-observed rates of change of SST tip the control of the seasonal cycle of pCO2 and FCO2 towards SST and result in divergence between the observed and modelled seasonal cycles, particularly in the Sub-Antarctic Zone. While almost all analyzed models show these SST-driven biases, 3 out of 10 (namely NorESM1-ME, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM, collectively the group-DIC models) compensate the solubility bias because of their exaggerated primary production, such that biologically-driven DIC changes become the regulators of the seasonal cycle of FCO2. It was also found that despite significant differences in the spatial characteristics of the mean annual fluxes, CMIP5 models show a zonal homogeneity in the seasonal cycle of FCO2 at the basin-scale in contrast to observed estimates. In the final third of the dissertation, using five CMIP5 ESMs from the RCP8.5 scenario, it was found that CMIP5 models present climate biases in the seasonality and drivers of FCO2 are fundamental to how models simulate long-term changes in the mechanisms of CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean. Although all five analyzed models show an increased annual mean CO2 uptake by the end of the century, they show significant differences in the mechanisms. The present-day temperature biased models (group-SST) generally maintain the dominance of the temperature driver in the seasonal variability of FCO2 to end of the century. But show enhanced CO2 uptake due to increased anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 and decreased surface CO2 buffering capacity but they display a weak to null role of biological activity in the increased CO2 sink. On the other hand, the increased CO2 uptake at the end of the century in group-DIC models is explained increased biological driven CO2 uptake in spring, linked to increased Revelle factor and solubility driven CO2 uptake in winter. Increased Revelle factor at the end of the century enhance pCO2 changes for even smaller DIC changes.