OpenUCT :: Browsing by Author "Marquard, Andrew"

Browsing by Author "Marquard, Andrew"

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Open Access
A Historical Institutionalist Analysis of the Evolution of South Africa's Municipal Electricity Sector within the Broader Electricity Supply Industry
(2020) Covary, Theodore; Marquard, Andrew; Steyn, Grové
This study has been partly inspired by the fact that historical narratives on the evolution of the South African Electricity Supply Industry (ESI), have for the most part focused on the national vertically integrated utility, Eskom; with far less attention being paid to the role that the municipal electricity undertakings (MEU's) have, and continue to, play. Indeed, this is somewhat surprising if one considers that MEU's began operating more than 20 years before Eskom's 1923 formation; and perhaps this lack of focus on MEU's is compounded by Eskom's operational crisis from 2006 (threatening its ongoing viability), which has overshadowed the perilous situation that MEU's have found themselves in. The research thus has two objectives. The first is to provide a detailed historical account of the role of MEU's and their contribution to the country's ESI from their genesis; while demonstrating the linkages between Eskom, MEU's and the three tiers of government. The second then examines how from the formation of the Union (1910), two fundamental but diametrically opposing objectives continue to prevail: 1) An over-burdened, financially ‘self-sufficient', local government, whose limited scope to collect revenue means electricity surpluses must be maximised to cross-subsidise its operations; and, 2) A vertically integrated utility, mandated to generate electricity at the lowest unit price, so as to provide the energy intensive economy with a competitive advantage. These contradictions, which have endured for many decades, reached fever pitch in the last 20 years, contributing significantly to the demise of ESI reforms initiated in 2000 and abandoned in 2010. Simultaneously, they have worsened the crisis of local government, which is constitutionally mandated to deliver basic services to its constituents, whose failure to do so, in many instances now threatens national government legitimacy at the most fundamental level. Within this context, the research, (based on the premise that history and institutions matter), employs the theoretical framework of new institutionalism, as applied through the lens of historical institutionalism (HI). Here, application of HI's core tenets revolves around identifying and explaining the critical junctures which create path dependency and institutional lock-in, while also accounting for incremental change which undoubtedly exists over a 120-year period. However, the unjust social and economic history of the country, where political decisions (pre and post-apartheid) have had a disproportional impact on state entities, requires closer scrutiny. For this, a detailed conceptual framework is employed to disentangle the complex relationship that has developed between the three tiers of government and their respective interacting powers. Ultimately, in delivering a detailed historiography of municipal electricity supply, the research posits that the ESI requires deeper fundamental reform than envisaged in 2000; and that most importantly, this must take cognisance of the extent to which MEU's are embedded within local government. This, the research believes, will increase the likelihood of local government participation and acceptance; perhaps pointing to an as yet unexplored path forward out of the South African ESI's current quandary.
Open Access
An economic and social review of the preferred bidders under the small projects IPP procurement programme: a cross-case synthesis
(2019) Mew, Timothy; Marquard, Andrew; Kruger, Wikus
The literature on the economic and social impacts of infrastructure projects, such as renewable energy projects, largely point towards these projects having positive direct and indirect benefits for the local economy, especially if the ownership, components, construction, and operation are sourced from local enterprises. The recipients of project expenditure, the location of their employees and to whom the profits accrue are essentially the factors that determine how much local economic benefit these renewable energy projects have. With this in mind, the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) was structured in such a way that gave additional weighting to socioeconomic criteria such as job creation, local content, local ownership, Socioeconomic Development (SED) funding, and Enterprise Development (ED) funding among others. The structuring of the REIPPPP in this way highlights the overarching policy objectives in the energy sector and how these renewable energy projects have been identified by the government as a means to achieve these socioeconomic objectives. The REIPPPP formed the foundation upon which the Small Projects Independent Power Producers Procurement Programme (SP-IPPPP) was based. The SP-IPPPP was created by the government to further localise the renewable energy industry in South Africa and give local developers and suppliers better access into this emerging sector. This research sought to compare Small Projects under the SP-IPPPP with projects of the same technology under the REIPPPP (in bid window 3 and 4) in a cross-case synthesis. Using an embedded, multiple-case study design the commitments made by Preferred Bidders in each programme were compiled and contrasted. Following this, the results for the Small Projects were scaled-up to identify how justified the additional costs associated with the Small Projects are, given their co-benefits to the South African economy. The findings suggest that the impact of the Small Projects on the overall price of renewable energy from the chosen cases would be negligible; and therefore, the co-benefits from these projects could justify this price premium. Even when scaled-up to the 400 MW allocated to Small Projects, the impact on the overall cost of renewables from BW3 and BW4 could be argued to have been justified by the co-benefits afforded by these Small Projects. The impact on the electricity price from projects in the scenario and BW3 and BW4 was not substantial; however, the job creation, local (national) expenditure, and community (within 50km of the project site) benefit were substantial, which may vi incentivise policy makers to go ahead with the procurement in order to meet these soci oeconomic objectives. In terms of the best technology option for the SP-IPPPP, the findings suggest that solar PV and biomass (in particular) are better suited to this capacity and offer improved socioeconomic benefits without a drastic price premium. Wind energy on the other hand, appeared to have a notable price premium over the Large Projects without proportionate socioeconomic benefits and would perhaps be better left to the REIPPPP.
Open Access
An analysis of institutional structures, organisational culture and decision-making processes that affect the sustainability of buildings at the University of Cape Town
(2018) Mandalia, Jigisha; Marquard, Andrew; Madhlopa, Amos
Universities globally are realising the potential they have in shaping the future workforce to deal with a variety of environmental issues, such as efficient resource use and sustainable development. The University of Cape Town (UCT) has committed to a number of environmental sustainability goals and is a signatory to international sustainable campus charters. This dissertation analyses the progress of sustainability levels of buildings on campus. A case study of three recently built buildings was undertaken, the last of which attained a 4-star green rating by the Green Building Council of South Africa. A detailed analysis was conducted through semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders at the university and others, including architects and sustainability experts. This study specifically evaluates the institutional structures, organisational culture and decision-making processes that have enabled, promoted or hindered sustainable buildings at UCT. One key policy was established in 2012, which stated that all new buildings at UCT will be constructed to be 4-star rated at a minimum. The decisions leading up to this policy were analysed and they highlight the enabling mechanisms within the university. However, a number of barriers and challenges were found that hindered progress. Many challenges are not unique given the similarity of university structures and governance globally, such as lack of: resources, awareness, motivation and coordination. However, there are local and contextual challenges, especially lack of funding and competing priorities, that need to be addressed before sustainability is fully integrated into UCT. Moreover, inertia of large institutions, difficulty in shifting organisational culture, and complex and lengthy decision-making processes make change difficult at a university. Nevertheless, some strategies are explored that are likely to be effective in promoting increased sustainability levels, especially of buildings on campus.
Open Access
Analysis of possible quantified emission reduction commitments by individual Annex I Parties
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Letete, Thapelo
This paper draws on research in the public domain, in order to provide an analytical basis for a proposal on possible quantified emission reduction commitments for Annex 1 countries under the Kyoto Protocol.
Open Access
Analysis of the economic implications of a carbon tax
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew
The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the implications and impact of a carbon tax in the South African context – it aims to serve as an introduction rather than an exhaustive analysis, and therefore does not draw any comparative conclusions on the suitability of a carbon tax by comparison with alternative instruments such as cap and trade systems. Before turning to the specific topic of this paper, a carbon tax, some background is given to broadly on economic instruments and carbon markets. Following this, existing attempts to model the impact of a carbon tax on the South African economy are discussed, followed by a discussion on policy challenges and some existing proposals.
Open Access
Analysis of the economic implications of a carbon tax
(University of Cape Town, 2011) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew
A carbon tax should be considered among the range of instruments available to the South African government, economy and society, as part of a broad portfolio of mitigation actions. A carbon tax was one of the most effective wedges or mitigation options analysed for the Long-term mitigation scenarios (LTMS) for South Africa. The LTMS strategic option ‘Using the market’ reduced emissions roughly as required by Science, for several decades. The LTMS research indicated that the effectiveness increases, up to certain tax levels. South Africa might consider a tax starting around R100-200 / t CO2eq, escalating in future. Our paper presents results on research on a carbon tax in South Africa conducted in 2008 and was presented at the Climate Change Summit 2009. The efficiency with which a carbon tax achieves the goal of reducing GHG emissions depends on responsiveness and substitutability. This is shown more fully on the supply-side, while further work will be needed to fully understand the response to a carbon tax on the demand side. Careful design of a carbon tax (or other economic instruments considered) will be important to ensure that it is effective in meeting its objective – reducing GHG emissions. We propose a price discovery and adjustment mechanism that sets a band around the desired ‘peak, plateau and decline’ trajectory. Equity demands that poor households, in particular, be shielded from any burden. Off-setting incentives, such as food subsidies or reduced VAT on basic goods, should in finance measure that which will ensure that the package of tax and incentives is a net benefit to the poor – and not to treat the tax as a revenue-raising instrument. With appropriate design, a carbon tax can be a powerful instrument of mitigation in South Africa, and at the same time, contribute to socio-economic objectives. Keywords: carbon tax, South Africa, economic instruments, climate change mitigation, greenhouse gas emissions.
Open Access
Assessing the effectiveness of national solar and wind energy policies in South Africa
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2010) Edkins, Max; Marquard, Andrew; Winkler, Harald
The report assesses the progress made on renewable energy deployment for the solar and wind technologies over the last 12 years in South Africa. First the report assesses the potential contribution solar water heaters (SWHs), concentrating solar power (CSP), large-scale photovoltaic (PV) farms and wind technology can bring to South Africa’s energy demand by 2030. It highlights what the mid-term potential for each is by 2030 and compares this with the deployment of each over the past 12 years. From this a renewable energy policy effectiveness value is calculated based on the method developed in the Deploying Renewables Report (IEA, 2008a) and this is critically assessed. Finally, the report assesses the factors involved in renewable energy deployment, or the lack thereof, in South Africa and discusses recent developments in the field. The compilation of this paper was based on desktop reviews; data interpretation from multiple sources; expert opinion of the authors and peer reviewers; and interviews with experts in the field. A number of interviews were conducted at the ISES International Solar Energy Society Conference in October 2009 and the Energy 2010 Indaba in February 2010. The data used in this report to formulate the projections is from a number of sources and has been independently reviewed.
Open Access
Availability and cost of capital for IPP wind energy project financing in South Africa : an investigation study into how financiers and investors in the South African wind power market react to perceived uncertainties in the policy and regulatory ena
(2010) White, James; Marquard, Andrew
In recent months there has been an increased interest in the potential for a wind power sector in South Africa. This is in response to broader climate change commitments by government and the potential inclusion of independent power producers (IPP) in the South African generation capacity. In support of this the government has set policies that indicate their support for the inclusion of renewable energy into the mix. However, this policy does not send a clear signal of certainty to investors, especially with regard to the implementation. This thesis set out to review how investors and financiers have responded to these signals and how they set the cost and availability of project funding based off the uncertainty due to the gaps in the enabling environment.
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Carbon footprint of the University of Cape Town
(University of Cape Town, 2011) Letete, Thapelo C M; Mungwe, Nothando Wandile; Guma, Mondli; Marquard, Andrew
Since signing the Talloires Declaration in 1990, the University of Cape Town (UCT) has been striving to set an example of environmental responsibility by establishing environmentally sound policies and practices, and by developing curricula and research initiatives to support an environmentally sustainable future. One of the most recent efforts in this quest was the release of a Green Campus Action Plan for the University of Cape Town by the Properties and Services Department in 2008. While the Plan proposed a number of carbon emission mitigation interventions for the University, it also stressed the need to conduct a detailed and comprehensive carbon footprint analysis for the whole University. The aim of this analysis was to determine the carbon footprint of UCT, not only to give a tangible number with which the University’s carbon sustainability level can be compared with other academic institutions, but also to provide the much needed baseline against which future mitigation efforts on the university campus can be measured. UCT’s carbon footprint for the year 2007 was found to be about 83 400 tons CO2 -eq, with campus energy consumption, Transportation and Goods and Services contributing about 81%, 18% and 1% the footprint respectively. Electricity consumption alone contributes about 80% of all the emissions associated with university activities. UCT’s per-capita emissions for 2007 amount to about 4.0 tons CO2 -eq emissions per student. For comparison only, South Africa’s 2007 per capita emissions were estimated at 10.4 tons CO2 -eq. In terms of energy consumption only, UCT’s footprint is about 3.2 tons CO2 -eq per student, higher than the National University of Lesotho’s value of 0.1 and much lower than Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s value of 33.1.
Open Access
Challenges facing the wind energy industry in South Africa : lessons learned from international experience in promoting wind energy
(2010) Waller, Mary Kate; Marquard, Andrew
Growing concerns regarding climate change, energy security, long-term carbon price exposure, fuel price risk and fossil fuel depletion have continued to drive growth in wind energy globally over the past decade. In spite of South Africa’s renewable energy target and feed-in tariff for renewable energy, the current deployment of wind energy in South Africa is extremely low. Consequently, as the country embarks upon promoting the development of renewable energy, it is important to consider the challenges facing the wind energy industry in South Africa.
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Changing development paths: from an energy-intensive to low-carbon economy in South Africa
(Taylor & Francis, 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew
Climate change mitigation poses significant challenges for South Africa and its energy development, historically highly energy intensive. At the same time, the country faces a host of daunting development challenges, exacerbated by the legacy of apartheid. Examining both challenges, this paper considers how alternative conceptions of a development path can be achieved. In the short term, energy efficiency provides large potential for mitigation – and energy savings at the same time. Changing South Africa’s fuel mix, dependent to three-quarters on coal, is at least a medium-term challenge. The minerals–energy complex is so central to the economy that it is likely to take decades to change dramatically. The most transformative change is to an alteration in economic structure, likely to take long to achieve. The article examines specific policy instruments that might be implemented to achieve such a transformation. A transition to a low-carbon economy will require a paradigm shift in industrial policy. It will require considered provision for sectors sensitive to changes in energy prices. Building up new, climate-friendly industries will be needed to sustain employment and investment. To enable a just transition, provision will have to be made for emissions-intensive sectors, if they are to be phased out over time. South African government has adopted a vision, strategic direction and framework for climate policy. Policymakers have begun to understand that the future will be carbon constrained and that South Africa’s emission will have to stop growing, stabilize and decline before mid-century. The challenge of climate change is a long-term challenge, requiring immediate action. This article examines actions at near-, medium- and long-term timescales. Its focus is on the most transformative change, that of seeking to shift development paths.
Open Access
Climate finance to transform energy infrastructure as part of a just transition in South Africa. Research report for SNAPFI project
(University of Cape Town, 2020-08) Winkler, Harald; Keen, Samantha; Marquard, Andrew
Prior to 2020, the South African economy was facing major socio-economic challenges, struggling to eliminate poverty and reduce persistent inequality. The COVID crisis has deepened the financial crisis, with the last major agency putting the country’s rating below investment grade, or ‘junk status’. The recovery plan starts with rescue. The climate crisis is longer-term but still needs as urgent action as ever. The country is preparing to enhance its nationally determined contribution in an unprecedented context. Decarbonisation of the electricity sector is a priority – but in the SA context requires careful attention to communities and workers dependent on coal. The just transition transaction (JTT) is being developed in technical detail since 2019 by Meridian Economics (2020) and making the financial deal is work in progress. In brief, the transaction mobilises blended finance to fund the accelerated phase out of coal, thereby accelerating a transition from coal to renewable energy, and a portion of the concessional funds flows into Just Transition fund. This case study reflects on the JTT, seeking to understand its architecture, the potential to catalyse changes in the complex set of challenges in the electricity sector, by funding accelerated phase-out of coal and a just transition in South Africa, with broader implications for international climate finance. The time-scale of developing the transaction is fluid, while implementation of decommissioning would take many years. The purpose of the study is to understand the potential of a just transition transaction to accelerate the phase out of coal-fired power and to fund development projects. The purpose requires a specific focus, and it is important to understand what is included in the scope of this case study, and what lies beyond that scope.
Open Access
A computable general equilibrium analysis of the proposed build plans as presented in the integrated resource plan
(2011) Caetano, Tara Helena; Marquard, Andrew
Global concerns with regard to electricity supply ranged from growing demand (especially in developing countries), energy security, diversity of supply, safety and the global movement towards low-carbon technologies. The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is an operational process by which these concerns as well as other policy goals are addressed. This is done with the aim of providing a long-term plan for the electricity sector. The current modelling approach used in the IRP is unable to quantify the effects on various policy goals that the plan is likely to have. This thesis uses a CGE model to analyse the plan in terms of some of these policy goals in an attempt to fill this analytical gap. The base case, revised balanced and policy-adjusted scenarios are simulated in the E-SAGE model developed by Arndt et al. (2008).
Open Access
Costing a 2020 target of 15% renewable electricity for South Africa - Final Draft
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2008) Marquard, Andrew; Merven, Bruno; Tyler, Emily; Hagemann, Kilian
This study explores the implications of a renewable energy target, with South Africa setting and achieving 15% of electricity generated from renewables by 2020 We report the effects of 15% renewable electricity on the total cost of electricity production, investment in electricity infrastructure, and national greenhouse gas emissions. Achieving such a target will pose institutional, financing and policy challenges and we consider several options. The two most promising technologies for South African conditions are wind and solar thermal electricity.
Open Access
Economics of climate change: context and concepts related to mitigation
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Tyler, Emily; Visser, Martine; Brick, Kerri
Climate change is increasingly seen as not only an environmental issue, but a deeply economic one. ‘Climate change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest ranging market failure ever seen’ (Stern Review 2006). Markets are failing to put a price on the emissions of greenhouse gases, passing the costs on to society as a whole.
Open Access
Energy Development and Climate Change: Decarbonising Growth in South Africa
(University of Cape Town, 2007) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew
This paper presents a case study of human development and climate change in South Africa. It starts by outlining the key development challenges that the country faces and the history of recent responses in development policy. Section 2 hones in on the energy sector, providing a brief profile of the sector contributing most to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The implications of South Africa’s ‘minerals-energy complex’1 for its GHG emissions profile are examined in section 3. Section 4 discusses the context and development of South African climate change policy, and examines implementation progress to date. The final section of the paper begins with a summary analysis of key mitigation options in energy efficiency, changes in the fuel mix and structural changes. Section 5 then examines the key constraints facing the implementation of such options, before concluding with possibilities for international cooperation to contribute to sustainable development and mitigation in South Africa.
Open Access
Energy emissions: a modelling input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2007) Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary; Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Merven, Bruno
Emissions from energy supply and use constitute by far the largest part of South Africa’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Hence energy modeling is a key analytical basis for the information provided to the long-term mitigation scenarios (LTMS) process. This report contains the technical information provided by the energy modeling team at the Energy Rserach Centre, led by Alison Hughes, to the Scenario Building Team which developed the LTMS scenarios. The information was integrated into the overall Technical Report (with appendices), its Technical Summary and the Scenario Document.
Metadata only
Energy Modeling: A modelling input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process
(2007) Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary; Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Merven, Bruno
Emissions from energy supply and use constitute by far the largest part of South Africa’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Hence energy modeling is a key analytical basis for the information provided to the long-term mitigation scenarios (LTMS) process. This report contains the technical information provided by the energy modeling team at the Energy Rserach Centre, led by Alison Hughes, to the Scenario Building Team which developed the LTMS scenarios. The information was integrated into the overall Technical Report (with appendices), its Technical Summary and the Scenario Document.
Open Access
External cost of electricity generation: contribution to the Integrated Resource Plan 2 for Electricity
(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2010) Edkins, Max; Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Spalding-Fecher, Randall
The international studies on energy externalities and the local studies in South Africa suggest that the high impact areas for power generation are impacts of climate change and health impacts of outdoor air pollution. Climate change impacts are by far the greatest. The health costs due to outdoor air pollution are considered quite low based on national studies, though these may be underestimated. Damage cost from acid mine drainage is also thought to be significant, and could be substantially higher than reported here. External costs of electricity generation are a necessary factor in modelling the IRP 2. To be consistent, external costs must be added to the modeller’s reference case and to all policy cases or scenarios. In the multiple criteria decision-making process, the external costs should be reported as a distinct criterion. The weighting of this criterion relative to others (cost, carbon, and access) should be discussed with stakeholders. Although the external cost presented here are appropriate for input into the IRP 2, an extensive national review must be completed for future IRPs. Furthermore, the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) should take additional factors into account: health impacts of indoor air pollution (important in poor households, as well as industry); noise from transport, and other poverty-related issues such as wealth impacts of paraffin fires and burns, and social costs of fuel wood scarcity.
Open Access
Informing international UNFCCC technology mechanisms from the ground up: Using biogas technology in South Africa as a case study to evaluate the usefulness of potential elements of an international technology agreement in the UNFCCC negotiations process
(2010) Boyd, Anya; Marquard, Andrew
Transfer of low carbon technologies to developing countries is one approach for tackling rising global emissions. An international technology transfer mechanism has been proposed under the UNFCCC; however, it remains unclear how this international mechanism would translate into local level technology implementation. This study uses biogas technology in South Africa to obtain empirical data inductively related to technology transfer. Observations and activities specific to the biogas sector in South Africa are put forward based on site visits and stakeholder discussions in South Africa, the UK, Germany and Sweden. This paper presents empirical findings on technology transfer in the biogas sector in South Africa and analyses the role of an international technology mechanism in supporting the uptake of biogas. Many of the barriers to biogas technology in South Africa are national level constraints such as lack of supportive policy environment, financial incentives and information sharing. This case study supports the argument that it will be unrealistic for international technology mechanisms to capture the necessary specificities of individual technologies at a country level. Therefore, as demonstrated through the example of biogas technology in South Africa, there is a need for both effective national and international engagement to support technology implementation.