Browsing by Author "Kaplinsky, Raphael"

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    The Asian Drivers and SSA: Is There a Future for Export-oriented African Industrialisation?
    (Wiley, 2009) Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Mike
    Export-oriented industrialisation is the orthodoxy and is widely indicated as a development path for sub-Saharan Africa. In recent years there has been a surge of clothing exports from a limited number of SSA economies to the US. In 2006 these exports accounted for more than half of SSA's manufactured exports (excluding South Africa). However, the ending of quota controls on Chinese clothing exports to the US led to a significant fall in these exports. Is this a harbinger for the future of export-oriented industrialisation in SSA in a world of a level trading playing field?
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    The Asian Drivers and SSA: MFA Quota Removal and the Portents for African Industrialisation?
    (2006) Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Mike
    Most debates around the industrialisation possibilities for developing countries kick off on the impact of globalisation. Increasing globalisation (in the sense of trade liberalisation and opening up of markets) is either deemed to be beneficial to developing country economies or detrimental to them. Usually the impact of globalisation is discussed in terms of the integration of developing country markets into those of the industrialised centres of the global economy – i.e. North America, European Union, and Japan. Consequently the discussion hinges around the question of who benefits from opening up developing country markets to these Triad economies (and vice versa).
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    China and Sub Saharan Africa: impacts and challenges of a growing relationship
    (2008) Kaplinsky, Raphael; McCormick, Dorothy; Morris, Mike
    That China is having an impact on Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is very clear. What is not clear is the precise nature of that impact. Does it come mainly from trade in cheap manufactured goods? Does it come from China's seemingly insatiable hunger for oil and minerals? What role do Chinese companies operating in Africa play? How beneficial is Chinese aid and/or international cooperation? Existing literature gives a fair amount of information about the magnitude and effects of trade between China and SSA. It tells us, for example, that trade between China and SSA has increased rapidly, especially since 2001. Available databases can be mined to tell us what is traded and by whom. The literature, however, is less clear about how that trade actually affects Africa. What countries benefit and in what sectors? Who is losing out, and why? It is also clear that trade is not the only form of interaction between China and Africa, and that other interactions may also generate positive or negative impacts. Of the many possibilities, we have identified foreign direct investment, production, and aid as potential channels of impact. Unfortunately, we know even less about how these affect Africa than we do about the effects of trade. In the following pages, we attempt first to take stock of our knowledge. We do by subjecting the most common forms of interaction between China and SSA to a comprehensive and detailed analysis using a systematic framework. We then use this analysis to identify the gaps in our knowledge and suggest ways of bridging them. The paper uses secondary data from a number of sources, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the US Department of Commerce, as well as published materials and relevant websites. The paper is written in five parts. Part 2 presents a framework for analyzing the impact of China on SSA. Part 3 uses available information to examine each of the main channels of impact. Part 4 raises a number of issues arising from this analysis, focusing particularly on the manufacturing sector. Part 5 presents our conclusions.
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    Chinese FDI in Sub Saharan Africa: engaging with large dragons
    (Palgrave Macmillan, 2009) Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Mike
    In the context of widespread interest in the impact of Chinese investment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), this paper focuses on SSA's engagement with large state-owned Chinese firms investing in SSA's resource and infrastructure sectors. Evidence is provided on the extent of different types of Chinese investment, before focusing on the distinctive character of large scale state-owned Chinese investors whose investments are closely bundled with aid and trade. The paper concludes that SSA countries should maximise the opportunities opened to them by their resource-base by adopting a similarly integrated and focused response to Chinese (and other large) investors who seek to draw on the continent's natural resources.
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    Commodities and Linkages: Industrialisation in Sub Saharan Africa
    (2011) Morris, Mike; Kaplinsky, Raphael; Kaplan, David
    In a complementary Discussion Paper (MMCP DP 12 2011) we set out the reasons why we believe that there is extensive scope for linkage development into and out of SSA?s commodities sectors. In this Discussion Paper, we present the findings of our detailed empirical enquiry into the determinants of the breadth and depth of linkages in eight SSA countries (Angola, Botswana, Gabon, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa Tanzania, and Zambia) and six sectors (copper, diamonds, gold, oil and gas, mining services and timber). We conclude from this detailed research that the extent of linkages varies as a consequence of four factors which intrinsically affect their progress the passage of time, the complexity of the sector and the level of capabilities in the domestic economy. However, beyond this we identify three sets of related factors which determined the nature and pace of linkage development. The first is the structure of ownership, both in lead commodity producing firms and in their suppliers and domestic customers. The second is the nature and quality of both hard infrastructure (for example, roads and ports) and soft infrastructure (for example, the efficiency of customs clearance). The third is the availability of skills and the structure and orientation of the National System of Innovation in the domestic economy. The fourth, and overwhelmingly important contextual factor is policy. This reflects policy towards the commodity sector itself, and policy which affects the three contextual drivers, namely ownership, infrastructure and capabilities. As a result of this comparative analysis we provided an explanation of why linkage development was progressive in some economies (such as Botswana) and regressive in others (such as Tanzania). This cluster of factors also explains why the breadth and depth of linkages is relative advanced in some countries (such as South Africa), and at a very nascent stage in other countries (such as Angola).
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    Commodities and Linkages: Meeting the Policy Challenge
    (2011) Morris, Mike; Kaplinsky, Raphael; Kaplan, David
    The results of detailed empirical enquiry into the nature and determinants of the breadth and depth of linkages in and out of the commodities sector in eight SSA countries (Angola, Botswana, Gabon, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa Tanzania, and Zambia) and six sectors (copper, diamonds, gold, oil and gas, mining services and timber) has shown extensive scope for industrial development (MMCP DP 13, 2011). A primary conclusion of this research was that policy in both the private and public realm was a prime factor holding back the development of linkages. Addressing this problem requires the closing of three sets of misalignments between policy and practice within the corporate sector, within the public sector, and between the public sector and other stakeholders involved in linkage development. In addition, specific policies need to be developed, monitored and implemented in relation to the three contextual drivers of linkages from the commodity sector skills and capabilities, infrastructure and policies towards ownership.
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    Open Access
    Dangling by a thread: how sharp are the Chinese scissors?
    (2006) Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Mike
    China's growth spurt began in the late 1970s. But it was only in second half of the 1990s that its impact on the global economy began to be felt. China's exportdrive was not unique by East Asian standards (Figure 1.1). However, its size China has more than 20 percent of the global population) means that it is having a very significant impact on many other economies, including on low income economies in SSA. Its economy has grown at a compound rate of more than nine percent p.a. since 1979 and if this is sustained, it will be second in size to the US by 2018. Its trade impact is especially important, since its trade-GDP ratio is 70 percent (relatively high by comparison with other developing countries). In 2004, China was the world's third largest exporter, accounting for around 10 percent of the world's exports. The Organisation for Economic Development (OECD) estimates that China will be the leading global exporter by 2010.
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    Open Access
    Do the Asian drivers undermine export-oriented industrialization in SSA?
    (Elsevier, 2007) Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Mike
    An increase in outward orientation in general, and in export-oriented manufacturing in particular is widely indicated as a suitable developmental path for SSA. The logic for this is drawn both from the demonstration effect of China and the earlier generation of Asian NICs, and from theory. However, the entry of China (and to a lesser extent India) into the global economy as a significant exporter of manufactures poses severe problems for export-oriented growth in SSA. This can be seen from SSA's recent experience in the clothing and textile sectors, often considered to be the first step in export-oriented manufacturing growth. Without sustained trade preferences over Asian producers, SSA's clothing and textile industry will be largely excluded from global markets and face significant threats in its domestic market. This has generalizable implications for other sectors, and for other sets of low income producers.

    Key words: export oriented industrialization; SSA; China; clothing and textile industry; fallacy of composition

    DOI:? 10.1016/j.worlddev.2007.06.007
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    Impacts and Challenges of a Growing Relationship between China and Sub Saharan Africa
    (2009) Kaplinsky, Raphael; McCormick, Dorothy; Morris, Mike
    The existing literature is clear that China is impacting on Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). What is not clear is the precise nature of that impact. Does it come mainly from trade in cheap manufactured goods? Does it come from China’s seemingly insatiable hunger for oil and minerals? What countries benefit and in what sectors? What role do Chinese companies operating in Africa play? How beneficial is Chinese aid and/or international cooperation? Who is losing out, and why? Most of the literature focuses on trade but other interactions also generate positive or negative impacts. Of the many possibilities, we have identified foreign direct investment, production, and aid as potential channels of impact. In the following pages, we attempt first to take stock of our knowledge. We do by subjecting the most common forms of interaction between China and SSA to a comprehensive and detailed analysis using a systematic framework. We then use this analysis to identify the gaps in our knowledge and suggest ways of bridging them. The paper uses secondary data from a number of sources, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the US Department of Commerce, as well as published materials and relevant websites.
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    “One Thing Leads to Another” – Commodities, Linkages and Industrial Development: A Conceptual Overview
    (2011) Morris, Mike; Kaplinsky, Raphael; Kaplan, David
    African commodity exporting economies have benefitted greatly from the commodities boom of the past decade. This raises the possibility of commodity based industrialization path for these economies. However the conventional wisdom warns of the great dangers of relying on resource rents, amongst which are the fact that the capital intensive nature of many commodities sectors limits employment and the distribution of these rents. The paper challenges this pessimistic „resource curse? argument and sets out the conceptual reasons arguing that the strengthening of linkages to the commodities sector is an important avenue for industrial development. It sets out a general model of linkages between industry and services and the commodities sector which distinguishes between win-win and win-lose outcomes. The paper concludes with a brief review of the reasons why Governments might wish to intervene to support linkages between the commodities and the industrial and service sectors.
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    Seizing Opportunities and Confronting the Challenges of China - Africa Investment Relations: Insights from AERC Scoping Studies
    (2009) Ajakaiye, Olu; Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Mike; N'Zue, Felix F.
    Africa continues to lag behind the rest of the world in terms of development despite the recent rise of average annual gross domestic product (GDP) rate. Indeed, the upward trend in average growth rate observed over the 1995–2005 period was sustained through 2007 and was projected to reach 7% in 2008. Whether this will be enough to permit Africa to achieve its objective of poverty reduction and equitable income distribution is not known. However, it is clear that given the current rate of growth and socioeconomic development, Africa will be unable to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
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    Open Access
    South African Industrial Policy and the Learning Firm: A Case Study of Bell Equipment Ltd
    (1996-11) Kaplinsky, Raphael; Mhlongo, Edmund
    The debate on industrial policy is often counterposed between two truisms.
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    Value chain analysis: a tool for enhancing export supply policies
    (Inderscience, 2008) Kaplinsky, Raphael; Morris, Mike
    Mainstream economics and the agenda promoted by Washington Consensus institutions focuses on the role played by markets. In recent years, this policy agenda has been concentrated on a series of behind-, beyond- and between-the-border trade-related issues. Whilst valuable, this agenda fails to address some of the major determinants of export supply in developing economies. By contrast, the value chain framework provides a rich agenda for the design and implementation of policies designed to enhance export supply. These issues are addressed in this paper through a discussion of the dynamics of rent and rent appropriation, the growing role of standards and turnkey production. Contemporary global value chains are in a state of flux, with a reduced likelihood of capability-building supply chain programmes in low-income economies outside of Asia.