Browsing by Author "Haw, Mary"

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    Clean energy and development for South Africa: Results, Report 3 of 3.
    (2007) Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary
    The objective of this document is to report on the scenarios considered and compare the costs and social impacts using the sustainability indicators. The scenarios reported on are the energy efficiency improvements in the commercial, industrial, transport and residential sector, an increased penetration of biofuels and renewables and increased use of nuclear energy. The scenarios contain alternative fuel and appliance choices. Deviations from the base case are introduced in order to determine the effect specific policies or actions will have on the final energy demand and related emissions and costs of the system.
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    Clean energy and development for South Africa: Scenarios, Report 2 of 3
    (2007) Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary
    This report is the second of three reports outlining sustainable development pathways for South Africa. It forms part of the reporting for the project entitled “Clean Energy and Development for South Africa” funded by the British Foreign Commonwealth office. The study has three main objectives, firstly to update both the national LEAP and MARKAL models and the data developed and captured during the first integrated energy planning process. Secondly to project future scenarios for the South African energy system and develop “roadmaps” for sustainable development using sustainability indicators and thirdly to develop additional capacity for energy modelling in South Africa and in particular within the Department of Minerals and Energy (DME). The objective of this document is to lay out the scenarios considered. It attempts to clearly define and record all the assumptions used to develop the scenarios. As the model is to be made available to the DME for use by its energy modelers and planners on completion of the project, the document serves as a guide to the scenarios in the model for the energy officers who will be using it. All model results and sustainability indicators developed are reported in the third report. Sustainable development has several objectives, it aims to improve the environmental impact of energy use as well as the social impact of energy use. The scenarios are designed to offer insight into the effect that following different policy pathways will have on the goals of sustainable development.
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    Energy emissions: a modelling input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process
    (Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2007) Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary; Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Merven, Bruno
    Emissions from energy supply and use constitute by far the largest part of South Africa’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Hence energy modeling is a key analytical basis for the information provided to the long-term mitigation scenarios (LTMS) process. This report contains the technical information provided by the energy modeling team at the Energy Rserach Centre, led by Alison Hughes, to the Scenario Building Team which developed the LTMS scenarios. The information was integrated into the overall Technical Report (with appendices), its Technical Summary and the Scenario Document.
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    Energy Modeling: A modelling input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process
    (2007) Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary; Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Merven, Bruno
    Emissions from energy supply and use constitute by far the largest part of South Africa’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Hence energy modeling is a key analytical basis for the information provided to the long-term mitigation scenarios (LTMS) process. This report contains the technical information provided by the energy modeling team at the Energy Rserach Centre, led by Alison Hughes, to the Scenario Building Team which developed the LTMS scenarios. The information was integrated into the overall Technical Report (with appendices), its Technical Summary and the Scenario Document.
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    Technology learning for renewable energy: implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios
    (Elsevier, 2009) Winkler, Harald; Haw, Mary; Hughes, Alison
    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa’s electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/tCO2-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.