### Browsing by Author "Hassan, Shakill"

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- ItemOpen AccessAnalysis of the predictive ability and profitability of an analytically derived trading algorithm in the intra-day spot foreign exchange market(2011) Sokolovski, Valeri; Hassan, ShakillThis paper examines the predictive power and profitability of an analytically derived, technical trading algorithm in the intraday spot foreign exchange market, using over nine years of hourly data. This trading rule, the reservation price policy (RPP), stems from the computer science literature and, based on certain assumptions, is shown to be efficient under the worst-case scenario criterion. The results indicate the existence of significant information content in the trading rule, which is robust to the parameter choice and consistent across the eleven currencies examined. But, the nonparametric, bootstrap analysis shows that the rule does not capture any incremental information above what is accounted for by the seasonal GARCH(1,1)-MA(1) model.
- ItemOpen AccessThe Black-Scholes model and the pricing of stock options in South Africa(1999) Hassan, Shakill; Abraham, HaimOption Pricing Theory (OPT), along with the Capital Asset Pricing Model, the Theory of Capital Structure, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, form one of the pillars of modem finance theory. Central to OPT is the Black-Scholes model, the first option pricing model derived within a general equilibrium framework, and therefore consistent with all arbitrage conditions an asset pricing model must satisfy. An attempt is made at explaining this model, and the first part of the paper is devoted to this objective. The appreciation of the theoretical elegance of the Black-Scholes model can be considerably enhanced through the understanding of the issues that made (and still make in the case of American put options) the derivation of an equilibrium model of option pricing such an immense task. With the intention of emphasising such issues, the first section of Part One covers the option pricing models that had been suggested before Black and Scholes (and Merton). This helps to put the Black-Scholes model in context, as well as facilitate an understanding of the approach Black and Scholes adopted in developing their model. Its derivation is the central focus of section 3, the second section of Part One. The second part of the paper contains an attempt at testing the Black-Scholes model, first in its "pure form," and then adjusted to account for the possibility of early exercise. Simple regression tests are performed, where daily prices of a sample of stock options traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange are used as dependent variables in regression equations. Black-Scholes model prices are computed, and used as the explanatory variables in these equations. But before the tests could be conducted, the distributions of the underlying assets' returns had to be examined and due consideration had to be given to the estimation of the volatility parameters. Part Two starts with a very brief overview of the South African exchange-traded stock options market. This is followed by a description of the data used in the tests, and discussions on the statistical behaviour of the underlying assets. A discussion on volatility estimating follows, and the test results are then presented.
- ItemOpen AccessDo CAPM anomaly variables provide real-time tradable opportunities on the JSE(2005) Bartens, Ryan; Hassan, ShakillThis study applies the recursive out-of-sample methodology of Cooper et al. (2005) to determine whether CAPM anomaly variables provide real-time tradable opportunities on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The three predictor variables selected on the basis of the South African literature (size, earnings yield and one-year lagged returns) fail to show any statistical evidence of predictability in realtime.
- ItemOpen AccessExtracting risk aversion estimates from option prices/implied volatility(2010) Pillay, Aveshen; Hassan, ShakillThe risk neutral density function is the distribution implied by the market price of derivative securities, namely options. It encloses the assumption that arbi-trage free conditions persist in the market. Given the historical evolution of stock prices, an investor will form some belief about the future progression of the stock price.
- ItemOpen AccessGaussian estimation of single-factor continuous-time models of the South African short-term interest rate(2007) Aling, Peter; Hassan, ShakillThis paper presents the results of Gaussian estimation of the South African short-term interest rate. It uses the same Gaussian estimation techniques employed by Nowman (1997) to estimate the South African short-term interest rate using South afrcan Treasury bill data. A range of single-factor continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate are estimated using a discrete-time model and compared to a discrete approximation used by Chan, Karolyi, Lonstaff and Sanders (1992a). We find that the process followed by the South African short-term interest rate is best explained by the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model and that the conditional volatility depends to some extent on the level of the interest rate. In addition we find evidence of a structural break in the mid-1980s, confirming our suspicions that the financial liberalisation of that period affected the short rate process.
- ItemOpen AccessImplementing the Bond Convergence Trade in South Africa(2010) Matshoba, Nomathibana Z; Hassan, ShakillConvergence trade, by definition, is buying an asset now to be delivered at some date in the future and selling a similar asset, to be delivered at the same future date, at a higher price. In this paper, implementation of bond convergence trade is explored in the South African market. This is in spite of the features of the South African bond market. The South African bond market is significantly different from markets where bond convergence trade has previously been tested. Duration was subsequently introduced in identifying similarities between bonds, and this is the major difference introduced compared to prior work in the literature. The results showed that the trades give, on average, negative returns. However, further investigation into the impact of interest rates not only on the trade, but over the period of investigation and future expected interest rates, is required, before the results can be appropriately interpreted.
- ItemOpen AccessSpread, inventory and spot price volatility in the platinum market(2011) Wilks, Megan; Hassan, ShakillThe central idea of the theory of storage is that the level of inventory influences the effect that changes in the demand-and-supply conditions have on spot and futures prices. With the use of monthly data for the period January 1992 to January 2010, I find that the predictions of the theory of storage do not always hold in the platinum market. In conflict with the theoretical predictions, I find that: i) demand-and-supply shocks will have the same effect on spot and futures prices, regardless of the level of inventory; and ii) changes in spot prices have very similar effects on the changes in futures prices when inventory is high and when it is low. In support of the theory of storage, I find a significant negative correlation between the volatility of spot prices and inventory throughout the sample period. Thereafter, I test the forecasting ability of the spot price volatility by employing a GARCH-t(1,1) model and find that volatility can be forecast fairly accurately for short periods, during which the spot prices are somewhat stable.
- ItemRestrictedThe equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles in a turbulent economy: Evidence from 105 years of data from South Africa(2010) Hassan, Shakill; van Biljon, AndrewThis paper presents a detailed empirical examination of the South African equity premium, and a quantitative theoretic exercise to test the canonical inter-temporal consumption-based assetpricing model under power utility. Over the long run, the South African stock market produced average returns six to eight percentage points above bonds and cash, and at the 20-year horizon, an investor would not have experienced a single negative realised equity premium over the entire 105-year period we examine. Yet the maximum equity premium rationalised by the consumptionbased model is 0.4%. The canonical macro-financial model closely matches the average risk-free rate, using realistic parameters for the coefficient of risk aversion and a positive rate of time preference.