Browsing by Author "Gossel, Sean"

Now showing 1 - 10 of 10
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    Determinants of the development of a local currency bond market: the significance of macroeconomic stability
    (2019) Matshego, Isaac; Gossel, Sean
    Bond market capitalisation in Sub-Saharan Africa is low even compared with the other developing economies. This dissertation thus examines the drivers of the development of local currency bond markets in 15 Sub-Saharan African economies over the period from 2003 to 2013, with a focus on the significance of macroeconomic stability proxied by exchange rate volatility. The empirical analysis focuses on government bond capitalisation, while the corporate bond market analysis focuses on seven of these economies for the period of 2004 to 2015. Possible explanatory factors are identified from the literature which attributes the development of local currency bond markets in developing economies to macroeconomic and institutional factors. The results of a dynamic panel data model show that macroeconomic instability is significant and negatively associated with local currency bond market capitalisation. In contrast, capital account openness is found to expand the investor base, for the low to lower-middle income economies in particular, while monetary credibility is positive and significant for bond market development irrespective of the monetary policy framework. Thus, this research suggests that the optimal set of policy options for local currency bond market development should encompass exchange rate stabilisation, capital account liberalisation, and monetary credibility.
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    Does public debt spur or hinder economic growth in Zambia?
    (2018) Siyanga, Malumo; Gossel, Sean
    This study investigates the relationship between public debts and economic growth in Zambia using ARDL analysis covering the period from 1970 to 2015. The results confirm the existence of the long run relationship between public debt and economic growth but the relationship is found to be negative and insignificant both in the short and long run. In addition, the results indicate that both the debt overhang and crowding out effects occur in Zambia. The study recommends that the government should develop a debt management policy, improve macroeconomic management, borrow prudently, improve project appraisal and selection, investing in productivity-enhancing projects, encourage diversification and promote export-growth.
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    Exploring the disharmony between the temporary and permanent organising forms in a parastatal
    (2023) Botha, Cornelis Johannes; Gossel, Sean; Dirk Kruger
    The primary focus of this research is to explore the disharmony between the temporary and permanent organisation forms where integration is required to further business objectives. Organisational dynamics and cultures are included as significant factors in the study. The researcher posits that disharmony, or tension, exits between these two organisation forms, specifically, the project management fraternity and the fraternity of the permanent organisation. From this disharmony arises a dichotomous paradox that incumbers the seamless coexistence between the two organisation forms. This study, therefore, investigates the institutionalisation of the management of temporary organising through an understanding of the level of an organisation's execution of projects and proposes a construct aimed at addressing the phenomenon of dynamic imbalance to the appropriate level. It set out to: gain an understanding that enlightens the suspected dynamic imbalance, explore the extent to which the research problem exists, gain an understanding of the dynamics of assimilation between temporary and permanent organising, explore the harmonies that could enrich closer collaboration between temporary and permanent organising, given the acquired result, to analyse deficiencies, and construct a theoretical framework that constitutes the end state. A literature review explored challenges in project execution and the relationship with project management maturity. A Qualitative Ethnographic study was conducted within the temporary and permanent organising communities to explore the posit and to develop appropriate solution proposals. As informed by the literature review, and per Actor-Network Theory, this relationality within and between the actants within the two organisation types was investigated. Actor-Network Theory was used as the theoretical lens to explore what changes could be instituted to enhance goal achievement of both the permanent and the temporary structures by investigating material-semiotic relationships in a network context. From the information gained in the literature review and personal experience included in the study, an appreciation emerged from where the disharmony and the contributing factors were better understood. The insight gained from the research provided the setting for the development of a framework to be used during the co-existence of the temporary and permanent structures. This framework could mitigate the effects of the dynamic imbalances as experienced under the status quo.
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    The Effect of Foreign Exchange Accumulation on Macroeconomic Stability in Post-Liberalized South Africa
    (2020) Nkabinde, S'phephelo; Gossel, Sean
    This study examines the impact of foreign exchange reserve accumulation on macroeconomic stability in South Africa over the period 1995-2016 using a vector error correction model. The results show that foreign exchange reserve accumulation has a positive impact on macroeconomic stability.
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    The Impact of Aid on Human Development Indices in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (2020) Tsokodayi, Jade Takudzwa; Gossel, Sean
    This study investigates the relationship between official development assistance (ODA) and human development indicators (HDIs) in 49 sub-Saharan African countries over the period of 1995 to 2017 using 3-stage least squares (3SLS). The four key sub-classes of HDIs considered for this research include education, health, government and civic society, as well as environmental indicators. Of all these HDIs, the results of the analysis show that health aid is the most effective form of aid, significantly reducing the incidence of HIV, the infant mortality rate and the maternal mortality rate, as well as leading to improved life expectancy. Education aid has a significant effect on the progression to secondary school followed by adult literacy rates. Government and civil society aid significantly affects the ability of girls to access education at primary, secondary and tertiary levels while environmental aid is found to increase the carbon efficiency of production. Hence, this study demonstrates that aid is most effective on the health, education and environmental human development indicators.
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    The impact of domestic debt on economic growth in Zambia
    (2022) Phiri, Kamphasa; Alhassan, Latif; Gossel, Sean
    Many developing countries like Zambia are faced with budgetary constraints. As a result, they bridge this gap in budgetary financing through borrowing. The borrowing is sometimes externally and can also be internally. Specifically, Zambia has gone through different phases as regards borrowing whether domestically or externally from the long ago. From the time Zambia received debt forgiveness there seems to be a rise again in the amount of debt that has been contracted both domestically and externally amidst falling growth in the economy. Therefore, this paper investigated the impact of Zambia's domestic debt on economic growth. To accomplish this, the debt-to-GDP ratio was used as a measure for domestic debt, while real GDP growth was used to gauge Zambia's economic growth from 1980 to 2018. The analysis was conducted using the Vector Error Correction model (VECM) and causality time series techniques. The results indicate that increased domestic borrowing led to a decline in Zambia's economic growth. Precisely, it was discovered that a 1% increase domestic debt resulted to a decrease (increase) of 0.988% in economic growth in the long run, holding all other factors constant. The Grander causality test shows that all variability does not cause economic growth. These results are further confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis. Based on the study findings the study makes the following recommendations. Firstly, the Zambian government should aim for lower levels of domestic borrowing that can be used for productive and efficient purposes. Secondly, to encourage faster growth, the real interest rate should be stable and real effective exchange rate can be improved through increased manufacturing, which results in increased exports. Lastly, governments can sell some parastatal companies to reduce large public expenditures while also increasing revenue, thereby boosting real GDP growth.
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    The impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and remittances on economic growth in the SADC Region
    (2025) Mushori, Roosevelt; Gossel, Sean
    Emerging economies across the globe are faced with a gap between savings and investment needed to grow their economies. Thus, in recent years, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Remittances have been identified as key sources of financing to bridge this gap. The study investigates the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and remittances on economic growth in 16 Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states between 2010 and 2022. Using the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) analysis, the study finds that the effect of FDI on economic growth in the region is statistically insignificant, whereas remittances have a negative impact on economic growth in both the short- and long-run. The findings also suggest that FDI and remittances have a weak substitutive relationship, rather than being complementary to each other interactively. These findings thus indicate that FDI and remittances do not promote economic growth in the SADC region.
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    The impact of sovereign credit ratings on foreign exchange rate returns in Africa
    (2020) Savadye, Laswet; Gossel, Sean
    This study investigates the impact of sovereign credit ratings on foreign exchange rate returns for a sample of 27 African countries over the period 2003–2018 to examine the response of the exchange rates around the time of sovereign rating announcements. The data consist of longterm foreign currency sovereign ratings, outlooks, watch lists and daily exchange rates. The study applies a combination of an event study methodology using both univariate and multivariate analyses and the Granger causality tests in a panel framework as well as impulse response tests. The results suggest that, in Africa, exchange rates do not react significantly to changes in sovereign credit rating announcements. No significant evidence of contagion was found. It is thus implied that foreign exchange rates do not react significantly to new information from credit rating agencies which shows a disjoint between macro-economic fundamental performance and financial markets. African countries are encouraged to focus on stabilising their currencies, as well as attending to macro-economic fundamentals that will result in improved credit ratings.
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    The influence of informal power structures on corporate strategy of a selected mining organisation in Northern Cape Province, South Africa
    (2023) Kadakure, Arther; Gossel, Sean
    Corporate strategy has gained a lot of traction in academic discourse as a critical field that ensures organisational success and the role of informal structures in achieving this success has also gained a lot of focus. However, several scholars have pointed out that most of the studies on informal structures have used western and Asian socioecological narratives to contextualise informal structures. The contextual gap identified by the study and the assumptions by scholars that African, Asian and Western contexts have huge variances prompted the study to explore the contextual gap in South Africa. After defining the contextual gap, the critical question that the study sought to answer was; How are informal structures responding to corporate strategy within a South African context? To answer this question the study used an interpretive approach and a single case study to draw from the subjective experiences of 30 employees using in depth interviews. To ensure the abstraction of high-quality data the study utilised heterogeneous purposive sampling to draw insights from informed participants which in turn enabled the study to explore diversified perspectives. The study established that the socio ecological context of the organisation had both positive and negative influence on the employee's desire to accept or reject corporate strategy. The study established that the positive influence enabled smooth flow of information, flexibility, fulfilment of social needs and sharing of ideas. However, the study also established that the negative influence which manifested in resistance to corporate strategy, social fragmentation, conflict and political bickering outweighed the positive influence. The study concluded by adopting a strategic management model and extending it to contain the negative attributes of the socio-cultural environment with the hope that the model may enable the organisation to positively influence informal structures.
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    The relationship between derivatives, portfolio flows and economic growth: Evidence from South Africa
    (2020) Ndzululeka, Khanya; Gossel, Sean
    This study examines the interactions between derivatives trading, portfolio flows and economic growth in South Africa over the period 2000: Q1 to 2018: Q4. As derivatives are widely accepted as effective risk management solutions in developed nations, and can facilitate capital flows to emerging markets, there is a need to investigate the empirical relationships between derivatives, portfolio inflows and economic growth. A vector error correction model was used in addition to conducting Granger causality, impulse response functions and variance decomposition tests to analyse the relationship between the factors of interest. The efficiency of the model was established using standard diagnostics, which confirmed the overall significance of the model. The VECM results find a positive short- and long-run relationship between portfolio flows, derivatives trading and economic growth in South Africa. The Granger causality tests, impulse response analysis and variance decompositions find a short-run relationship only between portfolio flows and derivatives trading. The implications are thus that derivatives trading can lead to an increase in portfolio flows.