Browsing by Author "Gilbert, Evan"

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Open Access
    Avoiding data mining bias when testing technical analysis strategies - a methodological study
    (2020) Douglas, Rowan; Gilbert, Evan; Maritz, Erich
    When seeking to identify a profitable technical analysis (TA) strategy, a na¨ıve investigation will compare a large number of possible strategies using the same set of historical market data. This process can give rise to a significant data mining bias, which can cause spurious results. There are various methods which account for this bias, with each one providing a different set of advantages and disadvantages. This dissertation compares three of these methods, the step wise Superior Predictive Ability (step-SPA) method of P.-H. Hsu, Y.-C. Hsu and Kuan (2010), the False Discovery Rate (FDR) method of Benjamini and Hochberg (1995) and the Monte Carlo Permutations (MCP) method of Masters (2006). The MCP method is also extended, using a step wise algorithm, to allow it to identify multiple profitable strategies. The results of the comparison show that while both the FDR and extended MCP methods can be useful under certain circumstances, the stepSPA method is ultimately the most robust, making it the best choice in spite of its significant computational requirements and stricter set of assumptions.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Open Access
    Beta, size and value effects on the JSE Securities Exchange, 1994-2007
    (2010) Strugnell, Dave; Gilbert, Evan; Kruger, Ryan
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Open Access
    Examining the presence of anchoring and adjustment in stock market investment decisions by Stefan Els.
    (2013) Els, Stefan; Strugnell, Dave; Gilbert, Evan
    With three major stock market crashes in less than two decades, understanding the forces at work in the modern stock market is more important than ever before. The anchoring and adjustment heuristic has often been described as one of the psychological forces influencing investment decisions but little research has been done to support this belief. The aim of the present dissertation is to empirically study the presence of anchoring and adjustment in stock market decisions. To do this, a small group of equity analysts from South African investment firms were used for a pilot study before a survey was presented to a sample of 295 fourth year actuarial and finance students from the University of Cape Town. An experimental research design was used with a salient peak or trough on a share chart (the anchors) as the independent variable and participants’ estimates of a firm’s fundamental value as the dependent variable. No significant relationship between the anchor and participants’ estimates of fundamental value was found. More specifically, the research results suggested that participants experienced an anchoring effect but were debiased before providing an estimate of fundamental value. This is believed to have occurred due to the inclusion of multiple salient anchors in the research materials consistent with the nature of information available to analysts in real-world investment decision-making contexts. As these findings contradict those of most studies in anchoring and adjustment, it is recommended that more research is conducted on the relationship between the anchoring bias and stock market decisions in realistic investment settings. Additional research is also needed to clarify the effect that multiple anchors have on the anchoring bias.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Open Access
    The impact of project flexibility on project choice and capital structure
    (2013) Forbes, Shaun; Gilbert, Evan
    This research highlights the value of Real Options Analysis (ROA) as a process in the evaluation of an oil extraction project in Sub-Saharan Africa. It shows the benefits it can bring to not only the final project evaluation but also to the project design selection process. The research then extends the application of ROA by developing and applying a framework which incorporates the fact that project flexibility has a positive impact on the projects value in the face of downside risk. ROA, by virtue of its explicit cash flow volatility modelling provides a framework for a consideration of the optimal level of project debt. In this case it suggests that the project can carry more debt than would have been acceptable if the more traditional NPV method was used in its evaluation.