Browsing by Author "Dilley, Ben J"

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    Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, Indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basins
    (Public Library of Science, 2015) Torres, Leigh G; Sutton, Philip J H; Thompson, David R; Delord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri; Sagar, Paul M; Sommer, Erica; Dilley, Ben J; Ryan, Peter G; Phillips, Richard A
    Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied in conservation management to predict suitable habitat for poorly known populations. High predictive performance of SDMs is evident in validations performed within the model calibration area (interpolation), but few studies have assessed SDM transferability to novel areas (extrapolation), particularly across large spatial scales or pelagic ecosystems. We performed rigorous SDM validation tests on distribution data from three populations of a long-ranging marine predator, the grey petrel Procellaria cinerea , to assess model transferability across the Southern Hemisphere (25-65°S). Oceanographic data were combined with tracks of grey petrels from two remote sub-Antarctic islands (Antipodes and Kerguelen) using boosted regression trees to generate three SDMs: one for each island population, and a combined model. The predictive performance of these models was assessed using withheld tracking data from within the model calibration areas (interpolation), and from a third population, Marion Island (extrapolation). Predictive performance was assessed using k-fold cross validation and point biserial correlation. The two population-specific SDMs included the same predictor variables and suggested birds responded to the same broad-scale oceanographic influences. However, all model validation tests, including of the combined model, determined strong interpolation but weak extrapolation capabilities. These results indicate that habitat use reflects both its availability and bird preferences, such that the realized distribution patterns differ for each population. The spatial predictions by the three SDMs were compared with tracking data and fishing effort to demonstrate the conservation pitfalls of extrapolating SDMs outside calibration regions. This exercise revealed that SDM predictions would have led to an underestimate of overlap with fishing effort and potentially misinformed bycatch mitigation efforts. Although SDMs can elucidate potential distribution patterns relative to large-scale climatic and oceanographic conditions, knowledge of local habitat availability and preferences is necessary to understand and successfully predict region-specific realized distribution patterns.
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    The effects of introduced mice on seabirds breeding at sub-Antarctic Islands
    (2018) Dilley, Ben J; Ryan, Peter G.
    Seabirds play keystone roles as apex predators in marine ecosystems and also influence the ecology of terrestrial ecosystems where they breed. Seabirds are among the most threatened group of birds - almost half of all seabird species are known or suspected to be experiencing population declines with 97 (28%) of the 346 species currently classed as globally threatened and at risk of extinction. Introduced predators at oceanic islands where many seabirds breed account for the largest proportion of population declines, more so than incidental fisheries bycatch or degradation of their breeding habitats. Since few oceanic islands have escaped invasion, the problem is widespread, with the prime culprits being introduced cats Felis catus, rats Rattus spp. and house mice Mus musculus which depredate adult birds, chicks and eggs. Rats were widely introduced to thousands of islands and their catastrophic effects on seabird populations have been well documented. Mice are estimated to have invaded more oceanic islands than any other alien predator, but until fairly recently they were considered to have little impact on seabird populations. This thesis focuses on seabirds breeding at two large oceanic islands - Marion Island (293 km2 ) in the south Indian Ocean and Gough Island (65 km2 ) in the south central Atlantic Ocean. Both islands have mice as the sole introduced mammal. Of relevance to this study, however, is that the density of burrow-nesting petrels is much higher on Gough Island because Marion Island’s petrel populations were greatly reduced by cats, which were introduced in 1948 and eradicated by 1991. In the early 2000s, researchers on Gough Island identified mouse predation as the most probable cause of the high chick mortality of at least three species of seabirds, including the endemic Tristan albatross Diomedea dabbenena. Further research concluded that mice can be devastating predators of seabirds on islands where they are the sole introduced mammal, because in the absence of competition and predation from larger introduced species, mice can attain very high population densities, and resort to attacking seabird chicks mainly in winter when there are few other food sources. In 2003, the first mouse-injured wandering albatross Diomedea exulans chicks were found on Marion Island and in 2009 the first attacks on summer-breeding albatross chicks were recorded, but incidents appeared to be infrequent. Although mouse predation had been identified as a potentially serious threat to seabirds at both islands, further evidence was required on how many seabird species were being affected and to quantify the impacts. Field observations suggested a noticeable increase in levels of mouse predation at both islands, yet there was still no direct evidence of mice depredating burrow-nesting petrels at Marion. In this thesis I assess the impacts of invasive mice at both islands and establish pre-eradication baseline estimates for the burrow-nesting petrel populations at Marion Island. Burrow-nesting petrels are the most abundant seabirds in the Southern Ocean, yet their populations are poorly known compared to surface-breeding albatrosses because they are difficult to survey accurately. Extrapolation from density estimates can lead to large error margins, but these can be reduced with the development of repeatable, island-specific survey methods for long-term monitoring. This forms the basis of Chapter 2, where I test the effect of sampling strategy (random transect or systematic survey) on population size estimates of three burrow-nesting petrel populations at Marion Island. Systematic, island-wide surveys were appropriate to estimate the population sizes of blue petrels Halobaena caerulea (strongly clustered distribution - Appendix 1) and white-chinned petrels Procellaria aequinoctialis (moderately clustered distribution - Appendix 2) and but for the very widely distributed great-winged petrels Pterodroma macroptera I counted burrows within random transects and extrapolated burrow densities by associated habitat attributes to generate island-wide estimates. The systematic surveys required more effort, but resulted in more accurate estimates for species with clustered distributions, whereas the random transects required less effort but resulted in broad estimates with wide error margins which limits the ability to detect changes over time. In Chapter 3, I investigate how burrow-nesting petrel populations on Marion Island have recovered since cats were eradicated in 1991. In theory, the removal of cats as the superpredator, combined with endogenous growth and the potential for immigration from nearby mouse-free Prince Edward Island, could have promoted a multi-fold increase in petrel numbers over the last two decades. To investigate this, I repeated a burrow-nesting petrel survey in the north-eastern sector of Marion Island originally conducted by Mike Schramm in 1979 and assessed how burrow densities have changed compared to densities at the peak of the cat-era. I found that burrow densities have increased by a modest 56% since 1979. The recovery of summer-breeding petrels decreased with decreasing body size, and winterbreeding species showed even smaller recoveries, which is similar to patterns of breeding success at Gough Island where mice are the major drivers of population declines among petrels. Mice are the likely cause of the limited recovery of burrowing petrels at Marion Island. To assess and document the impacts of invasive mice at both islands, I installed infra-red video cameras into burrows and assessed breeding success with regular burrow-scope nest inspections of study colony nests at both Gough and Marion Islands (Chapters 4 and 5). The results show that mice can be very effective predators of burrow-nesting petrel chicks and to a lesser extent, eggs. The breeding success for winter breeders were lower than for summer breeders at both islands, and among winter breeders most chick fatalities were of small chicks less than 14 days old. Fatal mouse attacks on small chicks were video recorded for six burrow-nesting petrel species and winter breeders had very high chick mortality rates (e.g. 82–100% on Gough Island). Since mouse depredation of seabird chicks was first identified as a problem in 2001, the frequency and severity of mouse predations appears to have escalated on Gough (Appendix 3), yet on Marion Island detected incidents remained infrequent until 2015, when mice attacked 4.0–4.6% of the large chicks of all three albatross species that fledge in autumn. Attacks started independently in small pockets all around the island’s 70 km coastline, separated by distances hundreds of times greater than mouse home ranges. Attacks have continued from 2016–2018 at varying rates on summer-breeding albatross fledglings, showing how mice alone may significantly affect threatened seabird species (Chapter 6). In summary, mice appear to be suppressing the productivity of burrow- and surface-nesting seabird populations at both islands and are very likely causing population declines, especially among winter breeding species. Fortunately, the removal of invasive mice from islands through aerial spreading of toxic bait is a viable option and the scientific and visual evidence collected during this thesis has contributed to the growing body of evidence needed to persuade funders and Governments to support eradication operations at both study islands.