Browsing by Author "Black, Philip"

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    Differential economic multipliers : an extension of Weiss and Gooding and an application to the Eastern Cape Province
    (1997) Saxby, Gay Nelia; Black, Philip
    Economic impact assessment in its most general form is concerned with the identification and evaluation of the effects of a given change in an economic system on other parts of that system. This type of assessment may equally be applied to the effects of a complex economic policy on a country or region, as to the estimation of the impacts of a new manufacturing plant on employment and income in the immediate area. The purpose of this study is to develop a practically applicable differential multiplier model, which can be easily adapted to apply to a range of economic impact studies, and which is not constrained by the considerable data requirements of more complex models, such as the input-output model. The model that is developed allows for a certain amount of differentiation, such as that between skilled and unskilled workers, and carries this differentiation through all stages of the multiplier process. The basic difference between the regional and the national multiplier is the existence of additional leakages from the flow of income, particularly in the form of interregional imports. This model also takes account of the leakages at every link in the production chain, thus ensuring that the multiplier works on the actual value-added generated by a new investment project. By definition, the model focuses primarily on less complex forms of impact assessment, such as a new investment project in a local sub-region As an illustration of the manner in which such a model could be applied, it is used to estimate the impacts of a proposed zinc refinery and phosphoric acid plant project in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa.
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    Should South African Airways be privatised given the aviation deregulation policy in South Africa?
    (1998) Gaboilwe, Nathaniel; Black, Philip
    This research consists of a wide literature review on deregulation and privatisation of airline business world wide. The emphasis is on the benefits of airline privatisation. The idea was to attempt to find out whether the deregulation of South African Airways (SAA) indeed brought about the changes that are expected of a commercial concern. These changes included cost cutting strategies and charging economically efficient fares as well as abandoning unprofitable routes. Some personal contact with the SAA Public Relations Officers in Cape Town and Johannesburg was used to gather the data used in the research. The Transnet and the Competition Board annual reports were other major sources of data. The analysis was accomplished by scrutinising the SAA financial statements as to whether SAA followed all the requirements implemented when deregulation was introduced. An econometric test was used to check whether there was any improvement in capacity utilisation at SAA as was expected to happen after deregulation. The findings from this research are that SAA did introduce new measures to try to be profitable and cut costs, such as, reducing the labour force and abandoning unprofitable routes. SAA also stopped cross-subsidisation practise, whereby loss making routes were financed by profitable ones. In general SAA introduced measures that can be expected from a profit maximising firm which is under pressure to tum profits. However, these changes have not yet produced consistent results as far as profit is concerned and is supported by the econometrics test which does not support the expected hypothesis that since SAA is now operated on commercial basis, should be able to tum profits and be efficient.
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    Telkom and the South African economy : achieving the optimal relationship
    (1995) Baird, Peter Walther Orgell; Black, Philip
    South Africa needs a modern, sophisticated telecommunications network to ensure economic development and political stability. The same network must also provide affordable and reliable service to a great percentage of the population. The telecommunications industry is currently monopolised by Telkom, a state-owned business enterprise (SBE), and does not appear capable of meeting these basic requirements. The purpose of this paper is to present a case for restructuring Telkom and liberalising the telecommunications industry to best serve the needs of the South African economy. The objective for restructuring the telecommunications industry must be to maximise long-term consumer welfare for all South Africans. This paper argues that consumer welfare will be maximised only by dismantling the statutory monopoly structure and moving toward a highly competitive, privately owned telecommunications industry. The economic issues, of course, cannot be discussed realistically without reference to political, social and historical variables, all of which are also considered. By focusing primarily on economic issues, however, this paper strives to avoid the ideological disputes which usually surround discussions of state ownership. This paper focuses on the telecommunications industry because it represents the single most important infrastructural component in a modern economy. It also presents a unique opportunity if managed well, and a grave danger if allowed to continue in its current structure.