Browsing by Author "Alfstad, Thomas"
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- ItemRestrictedBeyond free electricity: The cost of electric cooking in poor households and a market-friendly alternative(Elsevier, 2006) Howells, Mark; Victor, David G; Gaunt, Trevor; Elias, Rebecca J; Alfstad, ThomasThe South African government is introducing a poverty-reduction policy that will supply households with a monthly 50kWh “Free Basic Electricity (FBE)” subsidy. We show that FBE distorts the energy choices of poor households by encouraging them to cook with electricity, whereas alternatives such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) can deliver a similar cooking service at a much lower cost to society. An alternative energy scheme, such as providing households with clean energy credits equivalent in value to the FBE’s cost, could deliver additional energy services worth at least 6% of total household welfare (and probably much more) at no additional public cost; those benefits are so large that they would cover the entire cost of LPG fuel needed to implement the scheme. The analysis is extremely sensitive to the coincidence of electric cooking with peak power demand on the South African grid and to assumptions regarding how South Africa will meet its looming shortfall in peak power capacity. One danger of FBE is that actual peak coincidence and the costs of supplying peak power could be much less favorable than we assume, and such uncertainties expose the South African power system to potentially very high costs of service.
- ItemMetadata onlyDevelopment of a least cost energy supply model for the SADC region(2004) Alfstad, Thomas; Bennett, KevinEnergy plays a pivotal role in economic growth and improving livelihoods. Although better supply of energy does not automatically guarantee an acceleration of human development, it is a prerequisite for it. It is essential for preparation and conservation of food, for sanitation and for all productive activity. Finding effective means of providing safe, affordable and reliable energy services is therefore of critical importance to governments and organisations endeavouring to promote sustainable development. Energy also places excessive strain on investment capital in developing countries. It is not uncommon for an African country to spend over 30% of its development budget on the energy sector. Limiting the need for capital expenditure in the energy sector could therefore free up resources for other pressing needs. To address these issues, this dissertation develops an energy system model for the SADC region using the TIMES framework. The model is an optimisation tool designed to find least cost energy supply strategies. It has an individual representation of each country in the region, but allows them to trade in energy. This makes it possible to evaluate coordinated strategies and pooling of resources, and thus to identify solutions that benefit the region as a whole. Because of the uneven distribution of energy resources there is significant scope for cost reductions through trade and cooperative efforts, if appropriate strategies are developed. Short country profiles that describe each country's energy sector were compiled from the data available in the public domain and are presented. It was found that energy statistics for the region are generally poor, especially on the demand side, and only available at an aggregated level. Due to data constraints the model does not include a detailed description of the demand side. It targets the electricity supply sector and focuses on the expansion of the regional generation and transmission infrastructure. The analysis is scenario based and examines the impact of changes in economic growth, discount rate and trade policies. The results from the scenarios are distilled into a robust expansion plan that is sufficient to sustain economic growth at a rate equal to that estimated in the short to medium term by the World Bank. The plan is presented in some detail along with the corresponding investment capital requirements. The analysis supports the hypothesis that increased trade can reduce the cost of energy supply in the SADC region.
- ItemOpen AccessEnergy policies for sustainable development in South Africa: options for the future(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2006) Davidson, Ogunlade; Kenny, Andrew; Prasad, Gisela; Nkomo, Jabavu; Sparks, Debbie; Howells, Mark; Alfstad, Thomas; Winkler, HaraldThe purpose of this publication is to present a profile of energy in South Africa, assess trends and analyse some options for the future. It is divided into two parts – Part I presents a profile of energy and sustainable development in South Africa, while Part II uses modelling tools and indicators to assess future policy options for the country.
- ItemOpen AccessSouth African Energy Policies for Sustainable Development(University of Cape Town, 2005) Winkler, Harald; Alfstad, Thomas; Howells, MarkThis report models a range of energy policies for sustainable development in South Africa and evaluates the results against energy indicators of sustainable development. Demand- and supply-side policies exist that can contribute both to energy objectives, and also to broader sustainable development goals. The report builds on previous work on a South African profile on energy for sustainable development (ERC 2004a), identifying, modelling and evaluating future policy options. The purpose of the report is to present possible energy futures for the country and to demonstrate how indicators of sustainable development can be used to assess options. This method, we argue, provides the means for policymakers to identify synergies and trade-offs between options, and to evaluate them in economic, social and environmental dimensions.