The fall of Hosni Mubarak: Skocpol's structural approach
Master Thesis
2013
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University of Cape Town
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Abstract
The recent Arab Spring movement in the Middle East and North Africa has been heralded as
a transition to democracy for a region plagued by authoritarian regimes and their durable
leaders. This paper seeks to understand why Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's former long-time
president, was forced from office during the early months of 2011. Influenced by recent work
in political scholarship on the Middle East, the Post-democratisation paradigm, seeks to
escape from the democratisation paradigm. Instead of viewing events as indicative of
inevitable democratisation in the region, the paper attempts to explain events in terms of
Skocpol's structural approach to revolution which can also be used to understand significant
social change. In line with the structural approach the paper provides a contextual and
narrative history of Egyptian politics, including opposition and protests, as a backdrop to the
events between the 25th of January and the 11th of February 2011 which led to Hosni
Mubarak leaving office. The paper exhibits structural contradictions in the Mubarak regime,
some of which would lead to tension in the elite. Specifically, it highlights tension between
the military and the Mubaraks over the matter of Gamal Mubarak's apparent succession of his
father. This explains why the military would not use coercive force to help maintain
Mubarak's power. It found that the social movement #January25 was successful at
maintaining momentum in the face of state repression, including an analysis of the role of
social media.
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Reference:
Price, C. 2013. The fall of Hosni Mubarak: Skocpol's structural approach. University of Cape Town.