On options for the basis for future West Coast Rock Lobster TAC advice

Butterworth, Doug S

On options for the basis for future West Coast Rock Lobster TAC advice

Report

2018-11

Abstract

In 2016, scientific recommendations for management of the west coast rock lobster (WCRL) resource changed to fall under the Exceptional Circumstances provisions of the then OMP, because of marked reductions in resource abundance and increases in poaching. At present, primarily for reasons of limited time, these scientific recommendations for TACs are being based on deterministic projections of a “best” assessment. This approach needs to be expanded to provide, at the very least, probability envelopes about these projections to take account of major uncertainties. Following that, decisions will be required on when to move back to an OMP as the basis for TAC recommendations. The main matters needing consideration in this process are discussed; these include whether or not poaching index values for future years should be input to harvest control rules.

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