The causal relationship between road transport infrastructure development and economic growth in Namibia (1990-2014)
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2018
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University Of Cape Town
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The major aim of the study was to examine the short and long-run relationships and directional causality flow between road transport infrastructure development and economic growth in Namibia for the period 1990-2014. To achieve this objective, the study adopted the auto regression distributive lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to co-integration, to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between economic growth and transportation infrastructure in Namibia. The data was sourced from the World Bank Database on GDP from 1990 to 2014, the Namibia National Planning Commission MTEF (Medium-Term Expenditure Framework from 1990-2015) and the Roads Authority Annual Reports from 1999 to 2014, which were imported into the E-view tool to run quarterly regressions from 1990 - 2014. The results confirm a relationship among the variables. The Bounds test results indicated that there exists a long-run relationship among the variables under study. The estimated long-run model showed that there is a statistically insignificant positive relationship between expenditure on road transport and economic growth as well as between information communication technology and economic growth in Namibia. However, the short-run model revealed a positive and statistically significant relationship between expenditure on road transport and economic growth. Conversely, both the long-run and short-run estimates showed a statistically insignificant and negative relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth. Lastly, the Granger causality test results showed no causality between expenditure on road transport and economic growth in Namibia. The present study offers fresh insights to policy makers on crafting appropriate policies to regulate tax consolidation revenue and infrastructure levies collection; secondly, to boost public sector borrowing on international capital markets through bond issues, infrastructure funds and revenue bonds; thirdly, to develop partner financing business models through sector budget support; fourthly, to secure private sector financing through a private debt, private equity or capital structure leveraging business model; and lastly, implementing fast-tightened fiscal and monetary policy measures on foreign direct investment which currently severely affect Namibian capital outflows.
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Mungendje, L. 2018. The causal relationship between road transport infrastructure development and economic growth in Namibia (1990-2014). University Of Cape Town.